Party Time: Brokers Just Made Major Increases To Their uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Earnings Forecasts
uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from uniQure's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$244m in 2023, which would reflect a substantial 122% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 61% to US$1.28. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$188m and losses of US$3.04 per share in 2023. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
View our latest analysis for uniQure
The consensus price target fell 8.5%, to €42.66, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values uniQure at €89.88 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €13.93. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the uniQure's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting uniQure's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 190% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 50% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 16% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that uniQure is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting uniQure is moving incrementally towards profitability. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. A lower price target is not intuitively what we would expect from a company whose business prospects are improving - at least judging by these forecasts - but if the underlying fundamentals are strong, uniQure could be one for the watch list.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for uniQure going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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