PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.7% to US$48.16 in the week after its latest full-year results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$38b and statutory earnings per share of US$16.52. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for PBF Energy
Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering PBF Energy provided consensus estimates of US$34.7b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a definite 9.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 59% to US$7.30 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$33.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.53 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a massive increase in earnings per share in particular.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$50.43, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PBF Energy at US$64.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$39.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the PBF Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.3% per year. It's pretty clear that PBF Energy's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PBF Energy's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$50.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PBF Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple PBF Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for PBF Energy (of which 2 make us uncomfortable!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
