Pfizer (PFE) to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
Pfizer (PFE) will report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 1, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 23.0%.
Factors to Note
Pfizer’s revenues are expected to have declined in the second quarter of 2023 due to steep expected declines in revenues from its COVID-19 products on lower demand.
Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $1.23 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $610 million.
Pfizer expects significantly lower sales from its COVID products in the second quarter versus the first quarter. More substantial deliveries are expected to start in the late third quarter in the United States and beginning of the fourth quarter in international markets.
Excluding revenues from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, Pfizer’s revenues are expected to have risen, driven by key brands like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, Eliquis and Prevnar family of vaccines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis alliance revenues is $1.86 billion, Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.50 million and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $722 million.
Our model estimates Eliquis alliance revenues of $2.0 billion, Prevnar family of vaccines revenues of $1.47 billion and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax revenues of $682 million.
Newly acquired products, including Nurtec ODT/Vydura for migraine and Oxbryta for sickle cell disease, are expected to have contributed to the top line in the quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the acquisition of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics.
However, sales of key medicine, Ibrance in the United States are likely to have declined due to planned price decreases in some international developed markets and lower clinical trial purchases. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ibrance is $1.29 billion, while our estimate is $1.32 billion.
Sales of some key drugs like Xeljanz and Enbrel in international markets are likely to have declined in the second quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. Sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt by biosimilar competition. Lower prices and prescription volumes globally, with changes in doctors’ prescribing patterns from JAK inhibitors following label warnings, are likely to have hurt Xeljanz’s sales in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $341 million and $214.0 million, respectively, while our estimate is $357.4 million and $218.4 million, respectively.
Lower revenues from COVID products, coupled with higher spending for near-term launches and late-stage pipeline candidates, are expected to have hurt profits.
In May, the FDA approved Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine for older adults, which will be marketed by the name of Abrysvo. We expect the company to discuss the RSV vaccine’s commercialization plans on the Q2 conference call. In June, the FDA approved Litfulo (ritlecitinib), its JAK3 inhibitor for treating severe alopecia areata in adults and adolescents. The FDA also approved Ngenla a long-acting once-weekly treatment for pediatric growth hormone deficiency, in the same month.
Earnings Surprise History
The drug giant’s performance has been strong, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.84% on average.
Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote
Pfizer’s stock has declined 27.1% this year so far against an increase of 3.2% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pfizer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP -3.98% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents per share is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of 57 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
AstraZeneca AZN has an Earnings ESP of +1.88% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AstraZeneca’s stock has risen 2.2% this year so far. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.11%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Jul 28.
Novo Nordisk NVO has an Earnings ESP of +4.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 22.4% this year so far. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.35%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 10.
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