PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT) Just Released Its Yearly Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think
Shareholders of PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to US$31.95 following its latest annual results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$938m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$8.37 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on PTC Therapeutics after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for PTC Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering PTC Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$604.8m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a concerning 36% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 25% to US$6.09. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$630.2m and losses of US$6.19 per share in 2024.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$28.17, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic PTC Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$45.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the PTC Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 36% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 26% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PTC Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for PTC Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with PTC Therapeutics (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
