Q1 2024 Plexus Corp Earnings Call

Participants

Shawn Harrison; Investor Relations; Plexus Corp

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Plexus Corp. conference call regarding its fiscal first quarter 2024 earnings announcement. My name is Livia, and I'll be your operator for today's call.
At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. There will be discussion by management. We will open the conference call for your questions. The conference call is scheduled to approximately one hour. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shawn Harrison, Plexus President, Investor Relations.

Shawn Harrison

Thank you, Olivia. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today are some of the statements made and information provided during our call today will be forward looking state, including without limitation, those regarding revenue, gross margin, selling and administrative expense, operating margin, other income and expense taxes, cash cycle capital allocation and future business outlook.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees since there are inherent difficulties in predicting future results and actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. For a list of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Please refer to the Company's periodic SEC filings, particularly the risk factors in our Form 10K filing for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023 in the safe harbor and fair disclosure statements in our press release. We encourage participants on the call this morning to access the live webcast and supporting materials at Plexus' website at www.plexus.com, clicking on Investors at the top of that page.
Joining me today are Todd Kelsey, Chief Executive Officer, Steve Frisch, President and Chief Strategy Officer at Germain, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Oliver Mann, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. With today's earnings call, Todd will provide summary comments before turning the call over to Oliver and Pat for further details. Let me now turn the call over to Todd Kelsey type.

Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everyone. Please advance to slide 3 and there were many positives during our fiscal first quarter. These included strong quarterly wins across our market sectors, totaling $261 million, including the addition of two new exciting Healthcare Life Sciences logos, robust expansion of our funnel of qualified manufacturing opportunities, which now exceeds $4 billion when combined with a total available market exceeding $240 billion. This supports our expectation of continued industry-leading revenue growth with a targeted kegger of 9% to 12%. Ongoing advancement of our sustainable and responsible business practices, along with numerous efforts by our team members to help create a better world and positively impact our communities. Yet the quarter had its challenges primarily associated with further demand softening in the Healthcare Life Sciences sector and certain subsectors of the industrial market. The resulting revenue decline has created inefficiencies across our organization, which we are addressing as we remain focused on delivering 5.5% GAAP operating margin in fiscal 2025. These actions will be discussed in more detail later in the call.
Please advance to slide 4 for a review of our fiscal first quarter results we delivered fiscal first quarter revenue of $983 million, GAAP operating margin of 4.6%, including 54 basis points of stock-based compensation expense and GAAP EPS of $1.4, including $0.19 of stock-based compensation expense for these results met the updated guidance provided on January 16, 2024 and reflected the impact of significant negative operating leverage as demand weaken late during the fiscal first quarter, limiting our ability to appropriately adjust expenses.
Please advance to Slide 5. Our go-to-market organization is leveraging the current environment to create significant opportunity for future growth.
We won 30 new manufacturing programs for $261 million annually when fully ramped into production, led by continued strength from our Healthcare Life Sciences market sector, as well as strong performance from our industrial market sector. Concurrently, we expanded our funnel of qualified manufacturing opportunities by more than $300 million versus the prior quarter to greater than $4 billion. The funnel increase was highlighted by a large expansion and opportunities in our aerospace and defense and healthcare life sciences market sectors. Our aerospace and defense funnel is at an all-time high, positioning us for continued strong growth in the sector.
Please advance to Slide 6. I'm proud of how our Plexus team continues to innovate and operate to advance our sustainable and responsible business practices.
During the quarter, Plexus joined the UN Global Compact, a voluntary leadership platform for the development implementation and disclosure of socially responsible business practices. Further, we set fiscal 2024 sustainability goals, including an additional 5% energy intensity reduction globally as well as 5% waste intensity reduction. I'd also like to highlight some well-deserved recognition for our team members as they create a better Plexus and a better world positively impacting our communities.
Malaysia chapter of HRT Asia selected Plexus as one of the best companies to work for in Asia for a remarkable third time. In addition, they presented Plexus the HR Asia diversity, equity and inclusion award. Flexsys was selected by the Fox Cities Chamber of Commerce in Wisconsin. As of 2023 large company of the year, our lean operations site hosted more than 80 high schoolers in support of a smart girls rock event that connected mentors from a variety of STEM related careers, inspiring these students to pursue a career in STEM.
And finally, Insight Magazine named Pat, your main Wisconsin Public Company, CFO of the Year for 2023. Pat, congratulations and thank you for your leadership and commitment to fostering the growth and development of our company and our team.
Please advance to Slide 7. For the fiscal second quarter. We continue to see healthy commercial aerospace orders, inclusive of unfulfilled customer demand, slowly rebounding semiconductor capital equipment demand aided by share gains and an ongoing tailwind from new industrial program ramps. However, the near term demand weakness and inventory corrections from the healthcare life sciences market sector in certain subsectors of the industrial market are greater than previously anticipated, creating numerous of inefficiencies across our business.
While the move to outsourcing continues, as highlighted by our robust funnel of qualified manufacturing opportunities, we are seeing some slowness in customer decision making on new product development projects, particularly in the healthcare life sciences market sector, which is creating challenges for our engineering team. As a result, we are guiding fiscal second quarter revenue of $930 million to $970 million, non-GAAP operating margin of 4.0% to 4.4%, inclusive of approximately 72 basis points of stock-based compensation expense and non-GAAP EPS of $0.8 to $0.95, inclusive of $0.25 of stock-based compensation expense. Our GAAP EPS guidance of $0.48 to $0.63 also includes approximately $10 million or $0.32 of restructuring charges.
We expect to complete the associated risk structuring actions by our fiscal third quarter and believe they will result in approximately $20 million of annualized cost savings. While we anticipate some cost leverage and margin benefit from these actions during the fiscal second quarter. Typical seasonal cost headwinds and other investments, which Pat will discuss later in the call, coupled with our lower revenue forecast, will more than offset the immediate benefit while they continue to challenge our team to deliver $5 billion in annual revenue with 5.5% GAAP operating margin by our fiscal 2025, the path to $5 billion in that timeframe has become more challenging given current market dynamics.
As a result, we are implementing several strategic actions leading to the restructuring charge to enable better scalability, create greater efficiency and align our cost structure to position Plexus for future investments and long-term growth. We are rightsizing in areas where we have excess capacity, which includes personnel reductions. While these actions are necessary to position Plexus for future success. They are incredibly difficult for all of us given the personal effect to our valued Plexus team members.
In addition, we are actively managing discretionary spending including implementing a temporary salary reduction for our executive leadership team. We understand that we cannot control the demand environment, but we can ensure that we continue to evolve in order to deliver great operational efficiency, supporting the industry-leading returns that our shareholders value and expect we anticipate the second quarter of fiscal 2024 will represent a revenue trough and are expecting sequential revenue growth with our operating margin expansion of 30 to 50 basis points during each of the fiscal third and fourth quarters, we expect to deliver operating improvements resulting from the restructuring actions, increased manufacturing revenue and improved utilization within engineering and remain committed to delivering 5.5% GAAP operating margin in fiscal 2025.
Please advance to Slide 8 Finally, as we look forward, I remain confident that Plexus will deliver that exceed $5 billion in annual revenue while also achieving superior returns for our shareholders. We see tremendous runway for continued organic growth in excess of the industry without any substantial shifts. Two, our target market sectors are strategy even with some of our markets still recovering. Post COVID, we grew revenue at an approximately 8% catered during the last five fiscal years ended September 2023. This performance is 25 basis points in excess of the industry and in many cases, more than two or three times the growth rate of our competitors.
As detailed on this slide, our market sector leaders estimate there's a greater than $420 billion total addressable market that is directly aligned to the customers and products that fit our strategy and our mission to be the leader in markets featuring highly complex products and demanding regulatory environments.
This addressable market is approximately 40% outsourced today, creating a $240 billion opportunity in future outsourcing for Plexus, supporting our 9% to 12% revenue. Kegger goal as an organization, we continue to evolve in order to sustain our success. We are focused on driving efficiencies and creating scale while accelerating the pace of change our talented Plexus team is at the heart of our strategy, creating trust with our customers while delivering customer service excellence and exceptional results, we continue to advance our operations to ensure our organic revenue growth remains well in excess of our peers in line with our 9% to 12% goal and that we push to deliver at least 5.5% GAAP operating margin more consistent and greater free cash generation and the industry-leading returns that our shareholders value and expect.
I'll now turn the call over to Oliver for additional analysis of the performance of our market sectors.

Oliver?
Thank you, Todd. Good morning. I will begin with a review of the fiscal first quarter performance of each of our market sectors. Our expectations for each sector for the fiscal second quarter and some directional sector commentary for fiscal 2024. I will also review the annualized revenue contribution of our wins performance for each market sector and region and then provide an overview of our funnel of qualified manufacturing opportunities.
Starting with the industrial sector on slide 9, revenue increased 4% sequentially in the fiscal first quarter. This result was below our expectation of a high single digit increase, softer end market demand across some markets. Some sectors contributed to the weaker result as we start the fiscal second quarter we are experiencing forecast lightness as customers burn down inventory, most notably within the communications subsector, offset in part by strength in green energy and an incremental increase in semi-cap.
This will result in a low single digit decline for the industrial sector for the fiscal second quarter, industrial market sector had strong wins in the fiscal first quarter of $125 million wins were balanced across subsectors, including semi-cap new programs include a follow-on Commercial Vehicle Charging platform that will be produced in our Appleton, Wisconsin facility. We also expanded our portfolio with a newer semi-cap customer to include engagement from the Americas region with a complex mechanical assembly that will be produced in our Guadalajara, Mexico campus.
We are now engaged with this customer from all three of our regions. One additional highlight from the quarter is an assessment that our engineering team is performing on a product that our customer is currently designing called a lifecycle assessment. These high value ad engagements examine and measure the environmental impact of our product throughout its lifecycle by identifying improvement opportunities early and then helping to solution them Plexus is able to partner with our customers to create products that build a better world.
Looking ahead, we anticipate mid single-digit revenue growth for our industrial market sector for our fiscal 2024, a result of a continued gradual rebound in semi-cap demand, a tailwind from our support of green energy markets, offset by a greater than forecast headwind from a technology transition within the communications market.
Please advance to Slide 10. Revenue in our Healthcare Life Sciences sector was down 15% sequentially for the fiscal first quarter, which was below our expectation of a low double digit decrease market weakness, inventory corrections, customer design, modifications and supplier issues drove the delta drove the decline in the near term. We see soft demand as our customers continue to decrease inventory levels.
The net result is that we anticipate our Healthcare Life Sciences sector to see a mid single digit decrease for the fiscal second quarter. Healthcare Life Science sciences sector wins for the fiscal first quarter totaled $113 million and marked the fourth consecutive quarterly increase. This is also the strongest quarter of wins since the second quarter of fiscal 2022.
Our wins included programs with two new customers. We have been awarded the production of a drug delivery device and an aesthetic laser therapy system both products will be produced in our Penang, Malaysia campus for fiscal first quarter wins also include included a competitive market share gain due to the exceptional operational performance of our team and our radio remaining.
Looking at the healthcare life sciences market sector for fiscal 2024, with some inventory corrections lingering into our second fiscal half and the approximately 5 percentage points growth headwind from the year-over-year reduction of components procured at above historical market prices. We anticipate year-over-year revenue declines in the 10s.
Advancing to slide 11, our aerospace and defense sector increased 6% sequentially in the fiscal first quarter, strengthening modestly and meeting our expectation of a mid single digit increase. While unfulfilled customer demand remains. Our supply chain team continues to improve component deliveries to support robust underlying commercial aerospace demand.
As we look to the fiscal second quarter temporary declines due to new customer program ramp, delays in defense and space are partially offset by continued robustness within commercial aerospace. As a result, we expect a low single-digit decline for the aerospace and defense sector.
Our fiscal first quarter wins for the aerospace and defense sector were $23 million. We won two strategic defense programs with a current customer, both of which will be produced in our Boise, Idaho facility. We also won an unmanned aerial program that will be produced in our Penang, Malaysia campus.
Lastly, our Neenah, Wisconsin facility won a program that reflects the continuation of multiple awards over the past year for design validation and production work related to IT space program, including systems for power management control and guidance for fiscal 2024 for aerospace and defense, demand remains generally robust and is supported by an ongoing backlog. As a result, we expect revenue growth for fiscal 2024, exceeding the high 10s growth witnessed in fiscal 2023.
Advancing to slide 12, we can review the regional highlights of the manufacturing wins for the fiscal first quarter. The Americas wins were robust at $139 million and included the second consecutive quarter with a substantial win from a newer top 10 medical OEM for our Guadalajara, Mexico campus to A-Pac regions. First fiscal quarter wins of $86 million reflected a marked increase in contribution from the Healthcare Life Sciences sector with over half of the region's wins from that sector.
The region also continued trend of strong wins, performance from the industrial sector, including meaningful wins from two of our existing semi-cap customers. The major regions wins, first quarter wins of $36 million, add to the $280 million of wins from fiscal 2023, supporting the region's continued robust revenue growth outlook, an improved profitability forecast.
Please advance to Slide 13 for a review of our funnel of qualified manufacturing opportunities. Despite the strong wins performance. The total funnel increased to over $4 billion as all regions saw meaningful increases in their funnel for this $4 billion result as our second largest reported funnel. Given the strength of their wins performance, the industrial sector funnel dipped slightly to $914 million, aligned with our sector strategy. The opportunities reflected in our funnel are balanced across a variety of markets. Additions to the funnel from both customers and targets in our semi-cap subsector helped to backfill the winds. The Healthcare Life Sciences sector funnel saw a sizable increase to $2.2 billion, more than offsetting the impact of this quarter's strong wins performance, the strength of wins and the increasing funnel of qualified manufacturing opportunities provide optimism for future growth within the Healthcare Life Sciences sector for the aerospace and defense sector grew the funnel to a record high of $923 million, nearly doubling the funnel from Q1 FY '23. This is supported in part by growth with new targets in addition to growth and opportunities from our current customers.
Lastly, the funnel of opportunities for engineering services saw increases across all market sectors and hit a record high. While there has been delayed decision making, particularly with very engineering customers in the Healthcare Life Sciences sector, funnel strength, furthers our optimism for future growth and significantly improved performance.
I will now turn the call to Pat for an in-depth review of our financial performance.

Thank you, Paula, and good morning, everyone. Our fiscal first quarter results are summarized on slide 14, with revenue below our original guidance. Gross margin of 9% came in slightly lower than expected, reduced fixed cost leverage and unfavorable mix led to the gross margin result.
Selling and administrative expense of $43 million was within our guidance range. As a percentage of revenue, SG&A was 4.4%, which was slightly above expectations given the late quarter decline in demand, GAAP operating margin of 4.6% was below our original guidance due to the loss of leverage within gross margin and SG&A expenses. Nonoperating expenses of $10.3 million were consistent with expectations. Gaap diluted EPS of $1.04 was below the original guidance due to the factors previously mentioned, along with a slightly unfavorable tax rate. While we continue to measure our performance against GAAP metrics next quarter, we will begin sharing non-GAAP operating margin and EPS, exclusive of stock-based compensation expense for easier comparability to peers.
Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet on slide 15, we used $3 million of cash to support our operations and spent $29 million on capital expenditures, resulting in negative free cash flow of $32 million for the fiscal first quarter. This result was favorable to initial expectations as we intentionally delayed a portion of capital spending to more evenly spread out cash payments throughout fiscal 2024.
With the fiscal first quarter typically requiring investments within operations, we did not repurchase any of our stock under the existing authorization. However, as announced last week, our Board approved a new $50 million share repurchase authorization, bringing the total available amount to approximately $56 million. Starting next week. We plan to begin purchasing shares under these authorizations while taking market conditions into consideration, we plan to fund investments in operations and share repurchases with our strong and liquid balance sheet. We ended the fiscal first quarter with a cash balance of $232 million and total debt of $443 million. We had $257 million available to borrow under our credit facility and a conservative gross debt to EBITDA ratio was less than 1.7 times. For the fiscal first quarter, we delivered return on invested capital of 10.3%, which was 210 basis points above our weighted average cost of capital cash cycle ended the fiscal first quarter at 95 days sequentially, higher by eight days.
Please turn to Slide 16 for details on our cash cycle. The majority of the cash cycle increase came from inventory days, primarily due to lower revenue, while days increased by seven. Gross inventory dollars were only modestly higher by $13 million compared to the prior quarter and were favorable to expectations. We continue to be encouraged by the work our supply chain and regional teams are doing to drive reductions in inventory while facing challenges with customer forecast reductions in this still constrained component environment.
As Todd has already provided the revenue and EPS guidance for the fiscal second quarter. I'll review some additional details, which are summarized on slide 17 fiscal second quarter gross margin is expected to be in the range of 8.8% to 9.2%. At the midpoint, gross margin would be consistent with fiscal first quarter this quarter, gross margin will be burdened approximately 60 basis points by seasonal compensation cost increases and the reset of payroll taxes for U.S. employees.
We plan to earn through this margin headwind with productivity improvements across all three of our manufacturing regions, along with a portion of savings recognized from our restructuring efforts, we expect selling and administrative expenses in the range of $46.5 million to $47.5 million, which represents a modest increase year over year sequentially. Sg&a is higher primarily due to the seasonal compensation headwinds and investments in essential IT solutions to support our business.
Nonoperating expenses are anticipated to be in the range of $10.5 million to $11 million, fairly consistent with fiscal first quarter. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate for both the fiscal second quarter and fiscal year is expected to be in the range of 15% to 17%. Our expectation for the balance sheet is that working capital investments will increase slightly compared to the fiscal first quarter.
Based on our revenue forecast, we expect this level of working capital will result in cash cycle days in the range of 99 to 103 days at the midpoint. This would be sequentially higher by six days, primarily due to inventory requirements and anticipated advance payments returned to customers with modest working capital investments, coupled with our restructuring activities and higher capital spending to support anticipated future revenue growth.
We expect the usage of cash for the fiscal second quarter. A few comments on the full year, we have reduced our expected capital spending by $10 million to now be in the range of $100 million to $120 million. We are projecting slightly higher working capital investments compared to the prior year to fund growth expectations in the second half of fiscal 2024.
With this said, we believe products, gross inventory and advance payments from customers will be at levels lower than the past two fiscal year ends. Also, we expect to deliver improved free cash flow as we move through fiscal 2024, ending the year with up to $50 million.
With that, Olivia, let's now open the call for questions.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw, you may press star one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. And our first question coming from the line of David Williams with The Benchmark Company. Your line is open.

Hey, good afternoon or good morning. Gentlemen, thanks for the time this morning.

Thanks, David.

So still a lot to get through here. But just I guess, firstly, if you kind of think about the softness in the industrial segment, which isn't really surprising, but the key, can you kind of give us a sense of how your customers tone has been and kind of parse through maybe the inventory versus the demand side? And how much of this is really burned down versus just more cautious outlook in the future quarters?

Yes. I think I will start, David and talk a bit about our different markets and what we're seeing, and then I'll pass it off to the rest of the team to talk about inventory.
As it relates to demand, it's really interesting our markets, there's a bit of I would call it on a rolling progression across our markets post pandemic and stimulus as to when they've shown strength. And when they've shown weakness. And so it varies a lot by sector. So if you look at aerospace and defense, which I'd say was the furthest along, it had lots of struggles post pandemic is very much in a boom cycle right now and performing incredibly well.
As Oliver had mentioned, we're coming off a high 10s growth year and we expect to do better than that in fiscal '24. So really strong growth supported by a strong funnel. If you transition over to Industrial, there's there's a couple of different spaces within industrial that need to be considered the first being semi cap. And of course, we saw semi cap drop precipitously a little over a year ago.
It hit the bottom in our Q4 of fiscal '23 and is on a I would call it a climb upwards, although very modest at this point and a lot of it driven by share gain. So we're seeing growth there. But some of the other markets in industrial are struggling right now, particularly the communications. And that's where we're seeing the biggest near term headwind. We believe that to be a transitory situation as new technology is worked into the market.
And then finally, there's healthcare life sciences. And I'd say, again, we we view this as transitory, too, but we must say the down cycle has been a lot, and that's right in the down cycle. Now we would have to say that's a lot deeper than we've historically witnessed within our Healthcare Life Sciences space. And there's a few of them a few reasons why that's occurring.
One is that the inventory corrections as certain device making or OEM.s have overshot their demand. There's also the impact of components that were purchased last year at above market prices that are back to more normalized levels this year. So that's having an impact as well. Also some delays in program ramps as a result of customer design issues or supply chain supplier issues, I would say on those components. So it's very different by market, but right now because of the near-term impact in both healthcare and communications, it's having an outsized impact on our business. So I'll pass it over to Sure.

I'll just I mean, specific to the industrial sector because I think that's where we started, right? So we do see some general inventory burn down. But as Todd noted, it's really focused on the communications subsector. And as we look across the rest of that sector. There's I think I'd say signs for optimism. I think we see some incremental improvement here ahead of us in test and measurement. We've got some nice tailwind in green energy, although admittedly, that's coming off of a smaller base, but that provides a bit of a tailwind.
And then Todd also mentioned our semi-cap subsector and one additional data point, I'll note there is if we look at our F 24 outlook for semi-cap that held flat quarter over quarter. So I think another data point that suggests signs for optimism in that subsector.

Great.
Thanks for the color there.
And then maybe secondly, on the restructuring and you think about some of the reductions that you're making, how do you. How do you think about that in terms of the second half rebound? And just maybe if you could walk through some of the changes or the restructurings that you're making where those are and what we should expect in terms of demand or excuse me of impact to the of your capabilities?

Thank you.
Yes. So I mean, I want to start David, by saying that we don't take actions like this lightly, given the impact on our team members and the communities that we're a part of. But we do have and we've talked about having a playbook to protect our profitability. So we want to ensure that we're positioning ourselves for this 5.5% GAAP operating margin target that we have and we believe that's what we're doing. So what we're doing is we're taking a look at areas where we can enable better scalability, create greater efficiencies, align our cost structures to position us for future investments.
So that primarily involves, I'd call it rightsizing capacity and mostly across our operations. It hit manufacturing services and engineering. We talked about engineering being light due to healthcare. That's having a pretty substantial drag on our operating margin performance, given the the ratio of cost they asked and said that the cost within engineering is relatively fixed. So we think we're putting in place opportunities to better position our Company for the future as we go forward on this.
And when we talked about some about what it does to the second half and the second half rebound. As I mentioned in the prepared script, we look at it as being about a $20 million annualized cost savings or about $5 million per quarter. So you can think of it is once we get these fully implemented and moving forward somewhere in the order of 50 basis point impact. So much has all that into one month.

Operator

And our next question.
And our next question coming from the line of Melissa Fairbanks with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Thanks very much. Good morning.
First of all, I just wanted to say thanks for giving us a framework for the full year revenue set or segment revenue. It's super helpful. So to start, I got a quick one for Oliver.
Hi. Pretty much asked the same question every quarter. Could we get an update on the lead times on last quarter? I think you noted even though lead times were coming down, they were still running at about twice the normal range. Have we gotten any closer to normalization there

Yes.
Thanks, Melissa.
Happy to answer that. So similar to the message from last quarter, commodity strip broadly showing stability. I think when we talked about this last quarter, we said that, as you noted, just over six months on, we've moved from essentially 23 to 22 weeks across our broader commodity base, suggesting an incremental improvement there. And as I reflect on the whole dynamic for us, I'll say that our shortages and challenged spots are less semiconductor focused.
So a couple of quarters ago that was really just in the semiconductor slice of our supply chain and now includes an element of passes as well so that I view that as a further step towards normalization within semiconductor arm, we came from a 200 days down to 188 days so just wanted to a bit over six months. And then within semiconductor, as we've talked about historically, still see and high end semiconductor with lagging edge technology, we still see tight inventory and the occasional unexpected D commit and then generally no stock on the open market to help address.

Okay, great. That's very helpful.
Baby steps. I think that's that's a win for everyone home. So I just wanted to follow up on the last question about the restructuring actions you're taking, maybe a little bit less delicately. So Todd, I think you explained there's some consolidation or optimization across some of your facilities. Is there a factor of is there business you expected to win and had capacity dedicated to it, but now maybe that's no longer an opportunity.
So you're resizing some of those businesses?

No, there's no, really none of that, Melissa. It's really more of a softening in markets that we're seeing now as we've talked about in engineering, we're seeing some delays in decision making and such, which is causing us to pause there. But when we look at manufacturing or services, it's just general market softening, and it really relates primarily to our Healthcare Life Sciences market sector.

Okay, great. That's great news. That's all for me for now. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank him.
And our next question coming from the line of Matt Sheerin with Stifel. Your line is open.

Yes, thank you and good morning. Just a few questions from me. One, just in terms of top line and your expectations for sequential growth in the subsequent quarters in the back half of 24? I guess the question is and has your visibility improved or confidence improved given that you're looking at the last six quarters or so, I think there's at least three quarters where and there had been top line issues or headwinds in the quarter for various reasons, right. So I guess the question is, has that confidence or visibility improved and how?

Yes. So Steve's going to take this question, Matt.

Matt, I think is up as Todd talked about in terms of kind of seeing these rolling changes coming through the different sectors. I think it kind of follows that same philosophy where our confidence in the future forecast, it really kind of varies a bit by sector and subsector. So specifically like aerospace and defense, much more confident in what we're seeing from the aerospace and defense customers in terms of what their demand looks like as well as our confidence in supply chain.
So as all of our kind of gave a little bit of guidance there, I say we have more comfort level there. And we see, as Todd highlighted, in the industrial sector stabilization in the semi-cap market. So as we're starting to talk to customers about their back half 24 forecasted into 25 gaining confidence that those things will come to reality and basically working with them to make sure we can achieve that a little bit of volatility and like the communications sector, Tom talked about some we've seen of a few surprises there, but more focused on as technology changes and a little bit of shift there.
Obviously going through this health care life sciences challenge. Now, again, ultimate long term, look, very confident. If you look at the where the winds are at and the funnel, which is indicative of our customers are really kind of trying to reevaluate what their sourcing strategies are. We did have a few customers come out and announced their plans to close facilities and consolidate for us. That's a good thing.
And we talked about our funnel increasing those larger increases are coming from opportunities like that. So there may be a little bit of volatility here in this quarter in terms of where we're seeing those forecasts. But as we look to the future, I would expect as those inventory corrections kind of burn through some real potential for those subsectors to take off.

Okay, thanks. That's super helpful. And Steve, in terms of value inventory burn at customers in those sectors are you discussed, are you getting if you have a sense from customers or how long that's going to take in in terms of like forward orders? Are you seeing signs and I don't know, it's eight to 12 weeks out that things are improving.

Yes, we're looking at a customer by customer and actually product by product, and it does vary on some products, for example, with things that supported COVID, some of the laboratory test equipment, their inventory levels are a bit higher and will take a little bit longer to burn through other things, more related to surgical platforms or other related elective procedures, and we're feeling more confident those will rebound more quickly so that we are going through the analysis kind of product by product and it does vary a bit, but again, our confidence level is that it will come back. It's not a it's not really a product issue. It's just really more of an inventory problem.

One of the things I'd add to Mike or Matt is when we look at the, um, at our outlook in outlook for the back half of the year, and we're taking it from a very conservative point of view, but we have a number of of program ramps that are well underway that are going to continue to provide additional revenue in the back half of the year we've got the supply chain improvement that Albert talked about, and that leads right into the unfulfilled demand that we still have out there. So I'm you're looking at this conservatively. We have we have confidence that we're going to see the sequential improvement that that I talked about.
One other revenue component related component that I just want to I'll hit on quickly as I want to correct a statement that I made in the prepared remarks, when I talked about our growth rate, I talked about us having an 8% CAGR. over our last five fiscal years, which is accurate, but that is a 250 basis point spread above the industry average. So not the 25 that I had mentioned earlier.

Got it. Okay, thank you. And just on the communications side, could you remind us like what subsectors or industries because I know you don't play in mobile networks or base stations anymore, right. It's mostly in other areas.

And really it's really broadband infrastructure that we're talking about there, Matt.

Got it. Okay. And that weakness are you seeing across your vendor base or customer base?

Yes.

Yes. And I will note that we are well progressed well represented in that technology space. And so as there's an expected technology upgrade here in the future. And so when that does manifest, we're going to enjoy that growth as part of that or.

Okay, great. And just a couple of quick questions for Pat. If I can on one pad in terms of your expectations for margin expansion in the back half of '24 and obviously gross margins did expand. But in terms of SG&A, you talked about some near term expenses, but does that go down into three or because of IT costs and others? Is that kind of going to be at those elevated levels?

Yes, I think we will see improvement in the percentage as we get to the back half of the year. The dollars, I think will stay relatively consistent, Matt. So from a percentage standpoint, what I'm guiding Q2 at is about 4.9% of revenue, and that is up from Q1. There's really three main components to the the seasonal compensation cost increases is about $1 million and a half.
We've got some higher stock-based compensation based on the roll off of some prior awards. And then, as I mentioned, some IT system related investments on and a host of things. We're doing there around collaboration tools, cyber security, upgrade manufacturing systems.
So that's driving the dollar increase. And I do think that will stay pretty consistent throughout the rest of the year. But from a percentage standpoint, where we're targeting the targeting is around 4.5% of revenue. So some leverage improvement as we see top line growth in the back half of the year.

Okay. Okay, great. That's it for me. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you.
And our next question coming from the line of Andrew stone with Sidoti. Your line is open.

Yes.
Yes, I think in keeping your questions, first of all, Pat, did you you mentioned that you expect the CapEx to come down for the year on year than you had prior projected?

Yes. Previously we had $110 million to $130 million, so we brought it down $10 million and some of that's just because of growth investments that are being delayed a bit. We're being really mindful and prudent about the capital spending this year.

Okay, thank you. And on the panel have you mentioned and larger opportunities still coming in? And can you talk about how they relate to previous opportunities?

Yes.

So we are still seeing a larger number of large opportunities and our funnel than we had seen historically,

so that that imposes a bigger risk than in case you don't win these larger opportunities.

And I think it actually creates more opportunity for us to have strong wins performance because of that on you just as big change, just as maybe a little bit of clarification, we go head to head on a program versus competitors, you on average, we're winning two thirds of the time. And so our win ratio when we go into this qualified funnel of opportunities is quite high, whether that's a small program or one of these larger projects.

Okay, thank you. And also lastly, the issues they've had with some airplanes lately and go on having some issues, is that the step and the risks to you at all or?

Yes. So the answer from a risk standpoint is no. We do supply Boeing and we have a I would call it a reason we don't supply Boeing directly, but we do supply into Boeing and we do have content on the 737 and the 737 MAX, but the and I saw today that the FAA announced that they're going to allow Boeing to go back into production at the rate that they've been at historically. So that would have minimal impact to us. But even if production had been shut down and be of I'd call it a negligible impact to our overall revenue. So it's it's pretty insignificant to us asking.

Thank you. And you have mentioned. And so communication seems to be and a headwind for you now. But what are you hearing there in terms of the time and when that could potentially come back.

I'll offer that as we went into a quarter ago, we thought that that technology upgrade and the bounce back there was going to be early to mid '24 so we're now taking a more conservative view of it being a little bit further out, but the exact timeframe and to date the call have offered.

Okay, thank you. That was all for me.

Operator

And you can find our next question coming from the line of Jim Ricchiuti with Needham & Co. Your line is open.

Okay, thank you. Just wanted to go back to some of the commentary on the market sectors. If we look at where they are, biggest two wildcards are in terms of the improvement that you're anticipating in the fiscal second half, would you say it's more on the health care life science portion of the business?

Yes, I would say, Jim, we're not looking at the markets improving to get the recovery or the growth in revenue that we're projecting. It's more based off of program ramps and activity that's already underway. So any market improvement, whether that come from healthcare comms or further a further increase in semi cap demand would be upside to what our projections are.

And I guess, Todd, I is the way I'm thinking about it is if there's some potential. There's potential for negative surprises where you don't necessarily see progress and some in the overall the second half, which sector might carry the biggest risk. And that's why I was asking the question.

Yes. I mean, I would probably I mean, you probably have to think about industrials is okay over further degradation to healthcare, but it seems that that's come down a pretty tremendous amount already that it should be at the bottom or close to it.

Got it. On the A&D side, you seem to be suggesting that even with the there's been a little bit of it sounds like some program activity slipping on the defense space side. You still seem pretty confident that that shows healthy growth for the year as a whole with the continued growth you're seeing in commercial there.

Is that fair to say it is fair to say and specifically to hit that defense and space headwinds that I mentioned that we're experiencing in Q2 that has a short-term headwind. So that's nothing systemic that we're talking about there. As an example, with one of the program ramps are doing is actually a bit of a good story here. We were doing printed circuit board assemblies for a customer, and we are performing so well on the ramp is that, hey, we want to do the whole higher level assembly. And so we took a pause while they could take over the rest of that business as well. So temporary headwinds, and we do not expect that to persist. And then as we've talked about previously strong underlying commercial aerospace demand.

One of the things that you add, I'd add, Jim, on our aerospace and defense sector, we break it down into four subsectors, aerospace, defense, commercial space and security and all of them are showing some reasonable year-over-year growth in fiscal 24.

Got it. Thank you.
Thanks for that additional color. And then finally, you see you talk about the 5.5% GAAP operating margin in fiscal '25 and that you're committed to protecting that. Does that require if we see some in the past, you've talked about if $5 billion of revenue, it sounds like you're suggesting you get to those targets, even with the restructuring and the cost actions you're doing even if revenues are not at that level or am I misinterpreting what you said?

No, I don't think you are Jim. I mean what dumb But we'd like to get to the $5 billion in revenue. But obviously with the current dynamics in the current results and guide that, that would take a pretty substantial market improvement to be able to do that, but we can control the operating performance and the operating margin. That's part of the reason.
First, looking at the restructuring actions as well as some other activities. I mean, we believe that that's a level of performance that we need to deliver.

But basically from the actions you're taking, you don't necessarily anticipate anything additional that you have to consider to get it given the current state of the businesses?

No, we don't believe so. I mean, obviously, we'll need to get some additional revenue growth. So we get leverage but it really comes down to the restructuring actions, better utilization within our engineering team and then some manufacturing leverage.
Okay.

Shawn Harrison

Thanks a lot.

Absolutely.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for Nick. Ken, and actually, we have a follow-up question from David Williams from French benchmark. Your line is open.

Yes, thanks for taking the follow up first. I missed this earlier, but I want to say congratulations to pat on the CFO of the Year with certainly well deserved. And I think we would all agree to that. So So congratulations there.

Thanks, Janet.

Of course, and then secondly, just wanted to ask real quickly on the previous unverified list addition that you guys were included on, is was there any impact from that and anything longer term we should think about here? Any further risk? Or just any color around that would be helpful.

I think.
Yes. So on that, we've been able to recover through I call it a heroic efforts from our supply chain team and or our A-Pac teams in the region. So we don't believe there will be any impact to our fiscal Q2, although it wasn't easy. But what I would say is that the addition to the list wasn't there wasn't mere merited excuse me, it reflected more of a communications issue and a delay in a routine verification of the shipment to our Xiamen facility from the quick removal from the list, which I think was probably like record speed reflects these facts.
So I would like to call out though the Bureau of Industry and Security within the Department of Commerce and their strong partnership on this to resolve this. So I was very happy with the response that we were able to get. And I'd just like to reiterate, we have a strong compliance program and we remain committed to to all our laws as well as a strong partnership with the BIS. So nothing additional and we're happy that this is behind us.

Nice work getting that cleared quickly.
And then just secondly, regionally, it looks like Americas was down quite a bit. Is there anything specific, maybe that area? And is it fair to assume that maybe the US more heavily levered to the healthcare industry or anything maybe just around Americas that drove the sequential and year-over-year declines?
Thank you.

Yes.
So I think you've already you've already hinted there, David. I think the as we look at the Americas region, and this the exposure relative to health care, life sciences as well as the communications subsector is creating that result. And as those sectors come back, we'll see the Americas region come back with.

Operator

Thanks again, it came in a few months. Just kind of a follow-up from Matt Sheerin with Stifel and Sharon, your line is now.

So you so my follow up is on the inventory situation. Pat, you talked about the total inventory days. 161, I know, but I didn't get the the percentage or the number of days backed by customer deposits. Could you give us that number? And you also mentioned you expected those deposits to come down, right? As customers wanted their cashback given lead times are getting back to more normal. So what does that percentage look like? And how does that it impact your cash flows over the next few quarters as that percentage comes down?

Yes, Matt, that's a really good point because we do have to look at it on a net basis because I expect significant reduction in gross inventory dollars year over year. It could be upwards of $100 million. But we will see a significant portion of the advance payments being returned as well as we burn down that inventory.
So to give you just some examples of what happened from a days perspective from Q4 to Q1 days of customer deposits came down to. We would expect that coming down quite a bit in the back half of this year. So when you look at it on a net-net basis, our cash cycle, we ended at 87 days in fiscal '23. I expect improvement in '24, probably in the low 80s on a net-net basis. So much greater reduction in inventory, but also a reduction in the advance payments as well.

Got it.
But as a percentage do you expect those advanced payments to come down as a percentage of gross revenue or decrease of inventory?

Yes, let me just sum it quite it now.
It's well over 30%, right, right.
It would be still probably similar to that by the end of fiscal '24. Again, our goal is to return those upon liquidating the inventory. So on it would probably be around that low 30% range.

Okay.
So it's not going to change. It's just the I'm just the gross number is going to change, which has low dollar as the focus.
Got it. Okay. Okay. Yes, that's it for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Todd Kelsey for any closing remarks or during the review of.

I'd like to thank our shareholders, investors and analysts as well as our Plexus team members that joined the call this morning. But in closing, I want to say that as I look forward, I remain very confident in our future, and it's our exceptional Plexus team that provides the basis for this view that continue to differentiate Plexus in the market and with our customers where we're the leaders in the markets featuring highly complex products and demanding regulatory environments.
When we look at this differentiated performance and coupled with the strategic strategically aligned large available markets in which we participate in our commitment to delivering superior operating results, I'm optimistic that we'll continue to outgrow our industry and deliver the strong returns our shareholders expect. Thank you all, and have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the Crescent conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.