Q4 2023 Array Technologies Inc Earnings Call
Participants
Cody Mueller; SVP Finance & Investor Relations; Array Technologies, Inc
Kevin Hostetler; CEO & Director; Array Technologies, Inc
Kurt Wood; CFO; Array Technologies, Inc
Mark Strouse; Analyst; JPMorgan Chase & Co
Christine Cho; Analyst; Barclays Stock Analyst
Julien Smith; Analyst; BofA Securities
Brian Lee; Analyst; Goldman Sachs Group, Inc
David Benjamin; Analyst; Mizuho Securities
Donovan Schafer; Analyst; Northland Capital Markets
Joseph Osha; Analyst; Guggenheim Securities, LLC
Colin Rusch; Analyst; Oppenheimer & Co. Inc
Kasope Harrison; Analyst; Piper Sandler & Co
Andrew Percoco; Analyst; Morgan Stanley
Derek Soderberg; Analyst; Cantor Fitzgerald & Co
Dylan Nassano; Analyst; Wolfe Research, LLC
Philip Shen; Analyst; ROTH MKM Partners, LLC
Vikram Bagri; Analyst; Citi
Presentation
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Array Technologies Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Cody Mueller, Investor Relations at Array. Please go ahead.
Cody Mueller
Thank you and welcome to Array Technologies Fourth Quarter 2023 financial conference call. On the call with me today are Kevin Hall, Stettler or CEO. and Kurt Wood, our CFO. Today's call is being webcast from our Investor Relations site at ir dot array tech in.com, including audio and slides. In addition, a press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website.
Today's discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at hickorytech.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the Company, including information on financial conferences that we may be attending.
As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. We refer you to the documents we file with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10 K for a recent discussion of risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to conform these statements to actual results. And I'll now turn the call over to Kevin.
Kevin Hostetler
Thank you, Cody, and good afternoon, everyone. First, turning to slide 3, I'll give some highlights from our fourth quarter and our full year results. We delivered a record year across almost every metric we track. We exited the year with an order book in excess of $1.8 billion on strong new bookings momentum in the fourth quarter on a global basis, our book-to-bill ratio was 1.7, with Q4 bookings coming in at approximately $600 million. The sequential growth in bookings and resulting increase of our order book further highlights the improved pipeline we discussed last quarter and is a testament to our winning product and services portfolio, including energy optimization, software and severe weather mitigation solutions that enable an attractive levelized cost of energy for our customers. So I will speak more broadly about our order book and what we are seeing in the market in a few moments.
Revenue for the full year came in at $1.58 billion, which was above the high end of our latest guidance range. Full year adjusted gross margin was 27.3% inclusive of approximately $9.3 million of 45 times tax benefit recognized through the P&L in the fourth quarter. This represents a year-over-year increase of 1,300 basis points. It is a record for Array as a public company. Our performance here is largely demonstrating the structural changes we have successfully executed around how we price, how we procure materials and how we design for value optimization in our new product introductions and existing products alike. With the 2023 proof point in hand, coupled with the upside from the 45 x manufacturing credits, we are confident in our ability to deliver annual adjusted gross margin percentage in the low 30s in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $288 million, which was the highest year on record by over $100 million and marks the second consecutive year where this metric has more than doubled from a full year basis, we generated $215 million of free cash flow, which was $100 million higher than the outlook we provided at the beginning of 2023. We strengthened the balance sheet throughout the year and ended with $250 million of cash on hand. And we now maintain a historically high level of liquidity at $424 million when factoring in our undrawn revolving credit capacity. This leaves us well positioned to fund growth while continuing to deleverage our balance sheet.
Please turn to Slide 4. Where we will discuss our capacity domestic content and 45 times from an operational standpoint, we expanded our domestic and international supplier base and now have more than 30 gigawatts of deliverable capacity in the US in total capacity nearing 50 gigawatts across the globe. At the same time, with our enhanced focus on supply chain resiliency, we added additional sources of supply for several critical components throughout the year. We did this while simultaneously achieving both lower inventory levels and record on-time delivery performance. Our strong execution and proactive build-out of our domestic supply chain and manufacturing capabilities allows us to achieve domestic content levels in the mid 80% level and higher depending upon project configuration in high volume, not only on a one-off basis this level of scale will be critical as the domestic content requirements become better understood and more relevant to our customers over time.
As many of you are aware, in December, the IRS published additional guidance on the 45 X manufacturing benefits. It largely confirmed our previous understanding of the eligibility of our torque two in late 2023 and early 2024, we successfully negotiated agreements with key suppliers around domestic content incentives associated with our talk to this resulted in us earning $50 million, a 45 tax benefit in our financial statements in the fourth quarter, which included a catch-up for certain volumes delivered earlier in 2023. Approximately $9 million was recorded as a benefit to our P&L and the remainder was recorded on our balance sheet and will be recognized through the P&L throughout 2024. Unfortunately, the 45 times guidance published in December did not further clarify what would be considered a structural fasteners. We continue to expect there will be additional benefits we can monetize for a number of our components under the definition of structural fasteners and we are actively working multiple initiatives to obtain clarity regarding specific eligibility. In parallel, we are continuing to negotiate the economic split with our supply base for parts. We do not manufacture internally is our belief that the inclusion of these structural fastener components was the spirit behind the initial framework, and we intend to build legislation. We will provide additional updates on future calls as more information becomes available.
I'd like to now transition to our product software and service offerings. During 2023, we strengthened our product services and software portfolio with the launch of two new tracker platforms, the expansion of our SmartTrack software to provide automated hail and snow response and the rollout of our new service offerings. This is all on top of numerous other improvements that have driven down our installed costs, it improved our customer experience.
Turning to Slide 5. As I mentioned earlier, I would like to provide additional color around current market dynamics and our order book after gaining meaningful market share in 2021 and 2022, we chose not to pursue business in the first half of 2023 that would not generate a threshold level of financial return or would require us to assume elevated risks.
As we entered the second half of 2023, we were seeing the fruits of our structural cost enhancements and the implementation of more real-time processes around logistics and commodity costing come online, which allowed us to achieve lower price points while still sustainably achieving our margin expansion goals with our structural cost enhancements firmly in place and the market moving away from the short term high risk pricing environment, we saw our pipeline triple and our win rate increase, which are both important leading indicators of bookings and order book momentum. This was evidenced by the $900 million of new orders cumulative we received in the second half of 2023 and a 1.7 times book to bill ratio in the fourth quarter.
As we look into our order book, we continue to see a consistent quality of customers as we have historically. But percentage of our executed contracts with Tier one customers has remained over 80% for the last two years. That being said we are also seeing new customers into our pipeline. Our order book stands at over $1.8 billion as of year end, excluding any BCA's that don't have a named Project and or defined start date for projects that we willingly walked away from in the first half of last year, coupled with the increase in project delays and pushouts are disproportionately impacting the first half of 2024 for revenues, it resulted in our order book being more weighted towards the second half of 24 and into 2025. And historically would be the case at this point of the year.
As it relates to project pushouts that we highlighted on our last call, we are still seeing several industry-wide factors that are impacting project start dates, particularly in the first half of 2024. For the most common issues we are hearing are around permitting and interconnection supply chain delays on long lead time equipment and timing of financing. It is also important to point out that while we are seeing these delays fairly well represented across all types of customers, utilities included, there are a handful of our customers who are not seeing an impact and projects are moving forward in a more normalized manner.
Looking ahead, we are guiding full year 2024 revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.4 billion, representing a 16% decline at the midpoint versus 2023 on relatively flat volume. We expect ASPs will be down year over year, primarily due to declining commodity input costs. However, we will again see adjusted gross margin expand to the low 30% range and expect to see year-over-year growth in both absolute adjusted EBITDA dollars. And as a percentage of revenue, our revenues will be more back-end loaded with just under 30% of our revenues expected to materialize in the first half of the year, reflecting the order book dynamics I spoke about earlier. Q1 will be a trough with revenue in the range of $135 million to $145 million, followed by continued sequential growth for the remainder of the year and overall year-over-year growth returning in the second half. Kurt will now provide additional color on 2023 results and our 2024 outlook. I'll then give some concluding remarks before opening the line for questions.
Curt?
Kurt Wood
Thanks, Kevin. I would like to start off by providing some additional details around the fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. I'd ask that you turn your attention to Slide 7. As Kevin mentioned, 2023 was a record year on many fronts, and we were able to deliver a highly profitable year despite the headwinds that came our way via project pushouts.
In the fourth quarter, we delivered $342 million in revenue above the top end of the guidance range provided on our Q3 earnings call and down approximately 15% from the prior year period. We shipped 3.3 gigawatts in the fourth quarter, which was roughly flat versus the prior year. At the heart of the year-over-year decline in revenue was lower ASP., driven by a reduction in global commodity costs. As a reminder, when commodity costs move up or down, we generally pass the movement onto our customers, putting the revenue by geography, the $342 million was comprised of $278 million and $64 million from the legacy array and STI. units, respectively. We saw fourth quarter adjusted gross margin expand by 520 basis points on a year-over-year basis to 25.7%, inclusive of the $9.3 million of 45 X benefit to cost of sales realized in the quarter. Our ability to expand margin on relatively flat volume and lower revenue is directly attributable to the structural changes. Kevin highlighted earlier, our Q4 adjusted gross margin was negatively impacted by approximately 250 basis points due to one-time entries in our STI. segment related to inventory adjustments. Absent those anomalies STI.'s adjusted Q4 23 gross margin would have been in the mid 20s as expected.
I'd now like to expand further on the 45 next benefits in the fourth quarter, we recorded a $50 million benefit to our financials relating to talk to with $9.3 million included as a reduction to our cost of goods sold and $40.6 million treated as a gross up to the balance sheet in the form of an increase to both other assets and other current liabilities. The entire benefit relates to certain volumes delivered during 2023. But based on the structure of the contract with each vendor and the timing when the contract was executed, $41 million of the amount we are entitled to will not materialize on the P&L until 2024. As Kevin noted earlier, we expect to see additional benefits in future periods relating to our 2023 volumes based on how eligibility for structural fasteners is determined.
Operating expenses of $54 million were down approximately 11% from the $60.5 million during the same period of the previous year. The decline was driven by an improvement in amortization expense relating to certain intangible assets from the STI. acquisition. The decrease was partially offset by a couple of one-time items that combined for nearly $5 million of expense in the period, including a reserve for value added tax or VAT due to a ruling received from the European tax authority in the fourth quarter on the refundability of certain VAT items and a reserve on certain outstanding overdue receivables. Both of these adjustments are related to items that occurred prior to 2023. Net income attributable to common shareholders was $6 million compared to a loss of $17.3 million during the same period in the prior year. And basic and diluted income per share was $0.04 compared to basic and diluted loss per share of $0.11 during the same period in 2022. Adjusted net income increased to $31.4 million compared to adjusted net income of $15 million during the fourth quarter of 2024. And adjusted basic and diluted net income per share was $0.21 compared to adjusted basic and diluted net income per share of $0.1 during the prior year period.
Finally, our free cash flow for the period was $88.6 million versus $93.5 million for the same period in the prior year and spoke to many of the full year metrics. So I'll just briefly cover these again on Slide 8. Full year revenue was $1.577 billion, representing a 4% revenue decline versus 2022. This decline was primarily attributable to a reduction in ASP resulting from the lower commodity pricing on relatively flat volume and a change in the Brazilian ICMS benefit treatment. As a reminder, we discussed on the last call how in prior years, the impact of the Brazil value added tax or ICMS was treated as an adder to revenue. And starting in 2023, that was transacted as a reduction to cost of sales for 2023. This amounted to $23.2 million less revenue relative to the 2022 comparison, adjusted gross profit increased to $430.1 million from $234.1 million in the prior year, again, driven by the expansion of our baseline gross margin from the structural enhancements we made to our business and to a lesser effect, the $9.3 million 45 tax benefit that was recorded in the fourth quarter. Operating expenses decreased to $201.4 million from to $230.9 million in the prior year. The lower expenses were provide primarily related to $46.9 million decrease in intangible amortization expense related to the STI. acquisition, partially offset by higher headcount related costs to drive process improvement, operational execution and product innovation. Net income attributable to common shareholders was $85.5 million compared to a loss of $43.6 million in the prior year. And basic and diluted income per share was $0.57 and $0.56 compared to basic and diluted loss per share of $0.29 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $288.1 million compared to $128.7 million in the prior period. Adjusted net income increased by approximately three times to $171.3 million compared to $57.3 million during the prior year. And adjusted basic and diluted net income per share was $1.13 compared to $0.38 in the prior year.
Finally, our free cash flow for the year was $215 million compared to $130.9 million in the prior year. Excluding the $42.8 million legal settlement proceeds received in the third quarter of 2022, we more than doubled our free cash flow year over year and ended the year with approximately $250 million of cash on hand and total liquidity of $424 million. Factoring in capacity in our undrawn revolver throughout the year, we paid down $87 million of our debt, including nearly [$76 million] of principal on our term loan. And we ended the year with a net leverage ratio of 1.6, excluding our preferred shares.
Now I'd like to go to slide 9, where I will discuss our outlook for 2024. I want to begin by noting that we will be providing guidance as one consolidated array segment going forward rather than breaking out array and STIC. changed reflective of how we are managing our business following the successful integration of STIN. and streamlining of our collective processes. We're hopeful we will continue to give regional and product commentary for additional color on our business performance throughout the year.
Additionally, starting in 2024, we will be reporting all metrics on an all end basis, inclusive of 45 X benefits. 2023 was a transitional year in warrants at a specific call out or the benefit. Given the number of uncertainties for outage treatment in future periods, we will call out any material differences in our assumptions including those resulting around the inclusion of structural fasteners within the 45 that benefit to the extent there are any We expect full year 2024 revenue to be within the range of $1.25 billion to $1.4 billion.
As Kevin discussed earlier, there are a number of dynamics driving our outlook. Primarily, we are forecasting a reduction in ASP. of low double digit percent year over year, driven by lower input costs, our ability to lower price due to our lower cost structure and the pass through of a portion of the 45 X benefit to our customers as we strive to lower the overall cost of solar generation for the industry.
From a linearity perspective, the year will be more weighted towards the second half. Q1 will be the trough with revenues at approximately $135 million to $145 million. Importantly, begin to see sequential growth in the second quarter, which then continues in earnest in the second half. To that end, we are expecting year-over-year revenue growth in the second half of the year when compared to the second half of 2023, inclusive of 45 X benefits from our two, our two, we expect our adjusted gross margins to be in the low 30s for the year. As you would expect on a quarterly basis, this may fluctuate slightly based on product mix, project mix and fixed cost absorption for adjusted SG&A. We expect approximately $33 million to $35 million per quarter, which is slightly down from $1 dollar standpoint compared to 2023. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be within the range of $285 million to $315 million. Guidance is driven by the improvement in profitability from our structural cost enhancement enhancements that drive efficiency and scale as well as the 45 that benefits for our torque tube at the midpoint. This represents a 4-percentage-point increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 430 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin year over year, marking the third consecutive year in both dollar and percent of revenue expansion for adjusted diluted earnings per share. We anticipate a range of $1 to $1.15, which represents a 5% year-over-year decline at the midpoint. This decrease is largely due to an effective tax rate increase related to a change in tax treatment of the ICMS benefit in Brazil. Previously, this benefit was tax exempt, but will now become subject to the federal Brazil taxation beginning in 2024. As such we expect our effective tax rate for the year to be between 26% and 28%. We expect preferred dividends will be approximately $14 million on a quarterly basis of which approximately $6 million will be the cash or PIK. portion and the remaining will be the amortization of the discount. We expect free cash flow to be between $100 million and $150 million in 2024, which is inclusive of our estimate of the cash received during the year from the 45 x benefit. I would point out here that a large portion of the expected cash benefit will occur later than the P & L benefit due to the timing of the payments from the IRS embedded in our free cash flow forecast in the CapEx assumption of $25 million to $30 million.
Now I'll turn the call back over to Kevin for closing remarks.
Kevin Hostetler
Thank you, Curt.
I wanted to again highlight our record 2023 financial performance for structural enhancements we made to our cost structure and the strong top line momentum we are seeing for the second half of 2024 and into 2025. We made a lot of progress as a business over the last few quarters and are confident that this will lead to sustainable and profitable growth as we continue our journey. And I'm very proud of what our team accomplished in 2023. And I want to take a moment to thank our hard-working employees for all of their dedicated efforts. We will now open the call up for questions.
Operator?
Question and Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue, you may press star two. If you would like to move your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the start in the interest of time. We ask that you please limit to one question. One moment, please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Mark Strouse with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Mark Strouse
Yes, good evening. Thank you very much for taking our questions. I wanted to start with the 2024 outlook and the revenue decline? Yes, I fully appreciate kind of the first half of 23, the being more selective on higher margin projects that created a bit of a hole that you needed to fill. Just trying to compare what we're hearing today to what we heard on the 3Q call though, as far as the project delays, are there continued delays in those projects that you were seeing back then, are there incremental delays? Is there anything you can do to kind of help me compartmentalize what's happening? Thank you.
Kevin Hostetler
Thanks for your question? Mark, this is Kevin. Yes, relative to the project delays, what we've seen is the continuing delays and pushouts of projects for for many of the same issues that we talked about earlier on the call. So we've I'll highlight them again, but certainly some related to interest rates and financing and some confusion around the tax equity transfer rules. There is still lack of clarity around the IRA. And we still, as I'm engaging, our customers still hearing of orders sitting on the sidelines waiting for better clarity around the overall domestic content adder to the INTC. What we're hearing more of now than we have previously are really about supply chain issues. And that's really related to shortages of long lead time items of switches, transformers and the one that keeps coming up as being very acute is on high-voltage breakers. And these are placing interconnection queues at risk. And we're hearing about that come throughout. Now that is not ubiquitous. There are certain customers and utilities that were able to safe harbor lots of electrical equipment. And we're finding that those are the ones that seemingly are moving forward with projects now unabated, those that have a huge supply of those electrical components in particular that fit their design criteria. And last permitting delays, long queues, accentuated by the dramatic increase in solar and solar plus battery. So in many municipalities, we're getting used to doing solar projects, the addition of the battery storage to sites, and we're seeing that increasing as a percentage is creating again confusion and permitting delays. So really the same set there's continuing on and what we're seeing in the order book and how it translates to the order book is that customers are beginning to bake those delays into their order book. And that's when we talked about in our prepared remarks, a higher proportion of course are coming now where they're getting themselves a couple of extra quarters for that work to begin. They solve some of these issues.
Mark Strouse
Okay. And then, Curt, a couple of quick questions on the 45 times here. And are you planning are you able to today, are you planning in 2024 to provide kind of what the gross margin is excluding 45 X just so we can get a sense of kind of what your your structural margin margin improvements that you've been talking about are.
And then second, on the low 30s outlook for 24, does that include the $41 million a catch-up from 2023?
Kurt Wood
Yes, great question is we are still sticking to our structural margin in the mid 20s percent range. We think that holds solid. You saw that in the fourth quarter as well. If you take out the one-time items there that we were saddled with. And then yes, the that low 30s does take into account the 40%. You got to remember where it takes into a couple of things. Our margin takes into our cost enhancements that we've done that allow us to lower the price and still maintain our margin profile that we won. It takes into account the 45 tax credits that we're talking about here and it takes into account a certain pass through of the 45 X that will pass along to the customers on new deal that we signed going forward. So it's got all that. And what it doesn't have in there is any additional contracts that we may sign is in our prepared remarks. We talked about structural fasteners and what might be included in there. So that would be upside if those materialize, as well as any other deals that we negotiate with our vendors going forward. And we don't want to give specifics. Obviously, that puts us in a disadvantage when we're negotiating some of these things.
Mark Strouse
Okay. I'll take the rest offline. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Christine Cho with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Christine Cho
Yes, hey, guys. This is Joe on for Christine. Just one quick one from me. What sort of bookings are waiting on the sideline. You show this chart where your high-probability pipeline tripled since 4Q 22.
So I'm wondering what actually needs to happen for this to be converted?
Kevin Hostetler
Yes, it's a great question. So what we typically see momentum in our business is you go from overall pipeline, meaning pipeline is down in that 25% range to when it becomes over 50% it becomes the high probability pipeline that so we're waiting on, in some cases, an EPC to be named. In other cases, it's still competitive, even at 50%. There may be a portion of that that we're still competing with one of our <unk>, one of our peer companies to get that business. But it won't be measures that trend of high-probability pipeline then once it goes from 50 to 75, that's when it begins to convert to verbal orders. So that's really the trend. So what we look at that trend is the overall, what's coming into the funnel, what's getting through stage gates in the funnel in terms of quality of that order and our position to win network, that's where it gets into the high probability. So that's really an indication of the momentum we're seeing in the business and a tripling of that high-probability pipeline is very significant to us.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Smith
Cameron Loughridge ARM from from B of A. for drilling and a quick one for me and so they kind of tied together. Just asking both tandem first on the backlog. Can you speak a little bit to I appreciate the commentary around some of the customer delays and things of that nature, interconnection permitting, things like that. Are you seeing any any project churn in the backlog? Any projects coming out of backlog as we resolve some of these delays, were those projects or press being being sold to others? Or what have you at the customer level?
And then at the same time, U.S. international dynamics in 4Q and how those kind of play out in 2024?
Kevin Hostetler
Well, I'll certainly take the first one. I'll let Kurt talk about the specific Q4 bookings.
So look, we we have only when we put a project into our Arm backlog, we're pretty sure that that product project rather is going to go forward. It may be delayed, but they we've only we've modeled this out. Actually in the last few months, we've only ever had two projects pull out of backlog and get canceled. Certainly that's domestically internationally. As you do some of the smaller projects and the Brazilian forgiveness stays a little bit different to that, but I'll broadly speak to our North American backlog, and that's only two projects that are we are in fact, seeing some projects get sold and some developers are coming in and taking advantage of the fact that others are having supply issues and they're coming in and refinancing and moving those and in some cases, we're benefiting from that in terms of some of the developers doing that work are for lack of a better word, friends of Array, and we're picking up some additional orders and they're converting it from other suppliers to Array as they do that business. So far, we've not seen any meaningful cancellations at all. And in fact, we're benefiting from some of this secondary market emerging from these projects getting on sold prior to completion.
Kurt Wood
And for the second part of your question on the US and international dynamics, you'll see when we post our K out in the next day or so that we've got about in Q4, 75% US, 25% ish of our revenue was domestic or was international?
Excuse me. As we look into the 1st of the year, we talked about the first softness in the first half. Obviously, that's hard to overcome. So we do expect overall a decline in US volumes year over year. Your first half will be down second half will be up as we talked about, and then we'll see a little bit more meaningful growth on our international locations, including Spain and Brazil.
Julien Smith
Perfect. Thank you, guys.
I'll pass it back.
Kevin Hostetler
Welcome, Kevin.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Brian Lee
Hey, guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I've had a couple and I apologize, I jumped on late. So if you did cover these.
I apologize in advance. I'm on the gross margin guidance. Last year you were talking about mid to high 20s XIRA. Are you expecting the same level in 2024 for XIRA., are you actually targeting gross margin expansion into the 30s XTRA? Maybe just give us some of the breakdown of the overall margin guidance and what's embedded in there for kind of core margin versus what IRAs adding this year?
Kevin Hostetler
The one that was specifically, are you going to break it up the U. S we definitely expect to be in the higher than what we said on the call, which was consolidated at 25%. So kind of mid to high 20s for the U.S. and then obviously mid 20s for the international units. So combined that's where you get free any 45 X or IRA benefit. And then on a consolidated basis, the low 30% range for gross margin is an all-in number inclusive of the benefits from any new incentive program that's out there.
Brian Lee
Okay. Fair enough. That's helpful. And then on I know it sounds like there's already been a decent number of questions in you're providing some thought process around why the revenue guidance on April looks like it's softer than what the backlog ended the year with and we're kind of in tail.
So maybe just taking even a further step by you talked about a flat volume view for the year. It seems like peers are growing faster and some of the utility scale forecasts for the US are all up double digits, 10%, 15% this year. So maybe you could just kind of walk through for you specifically what's different is the customer mix of the share on just kind of trying to understand and reconcile the build to the flat volume view for you and for you this year and after last year where you already had some pushouts in this expectations for 2023. So just trying to reconcile a bit here.
Kevin Hostetler
I think that's a great question and look to answer that question. We have seen a lot of news recently about market share changes and shifts. And let me start by reminding everyone that this is fundamentally a large project business with a few projects can have an outsized impact on either the shorter term windows of share, which is widely in a general practice. We don't overly focus on quarter over quarter market share statistics. I'll remind you in my prepared remarks, I tried to remind you that not too long ago, we were discussing the dramatic market share gains are a secured in both 2021 and 2022.
So that being said, let me talk a few part about a few items. I think about relative to the market share change. First, we've discussed previously and in our prepared remarks that there was a period of time in early 23 where our primary objective in my role here was to help demonstrate a margin recovery for the business and build a backlog of high quality for the business. We've talked about this before, but in doing so, we brought in less projects into our pipeline to actively pursue. In the first half of 2023, we temporarily ceded a portion of projects to our competitors based on what we saw was dramatically lower pricing and terms that we felt were just simply too risky for our business. These projects are now being delivered in the first half of 24. We see that in retrospect, we have yielded a bit more on some of these orders and still hit our committed mid 20s margin, perhaps we could. But the reality is our focus was on improving our pricing to our customers without sacrificing margins to do this. And we were so focused on methodically attacking our cost structure. We focus really on increasing our global strategic sourcing. We really did a deep dive review of our internal engineering and design standards. And we invested in the last two years, nearly $11 million in improved IT systems and cybersecurity systems that would inherently improve our visibility to our build materials, our cost structure, our logistics operations for every project that we do in engaging with our customers, it was really important to our customers that the costs reductions that we were able to provide them are structural in nature and therefore, they could count on these into the future as they realign and do business with Array. And to be clear, we're not out there trying to buy business, and that's evidenced by our committed 2024 expanding gross margins. I'm confident that if you go out and pull the marketplace today, you'll find these structural cost reductions are becoming very apparent to our customers and there make a difference in our win rates on projects, we're actually seeing win rates substantially increase from that.
The pipeline funnel we talked about earlier since completing the first two planned initiatives for cost reduction. We've seen a marked improvement in the high-probability pipeline that we noted in the presentation. So that's nearly three times larger than at the end of Q2. And that's what drove the really strong Q4 bookings on the back of this earlier this month, we completed our third structural cost reduction initiative. This one was all about emphasizing automation and optimization of some of our engineering calculations that were all about reducing our customers' costs through optimizing the foundations they would be required to purchase and put into the ground. So again, that's not one that reduces our costs, but we're focusing beyond our cost into our customers' costs and identify ways that we can reduce Carecast.
Second thing is we continue to see project timing being negatively impacted by the factors we talked about in one of the first questions that we got as the supply chain issues, permitting, interconnect delays, IRA clarity, timing of financing all of the above. And then last, I would just note that we saw strong bookings in the fourth quarter. But one of the things we are seeing, as I indicated just a minute ago is we're seeing projects get awarded for longer time periods than we have historically. Our customers are now building in a couple of quarters of buffer and what they're doing is locking in capacity with us. I think this is this is really our customers' desire to buy more time to clear some of the project timing challenges. But obviously, this limits our ability to fill in more near term revenue than we would have historically, like others in our industry, we keep a portfolio of lots of projects. And historically, we've been able we would be able to work with our customers to push and pull projects in when we would push out further simply stated right now, that option is less given the kind of cycles that we're seeing in our in our stated backlog. But I think that just sort of topping on this front, I don't see any real dislocation or any indication of a longer trend that there's not been a killer app or any major new product that diminishes the strength of our product and services and software portfolio. There is short term dislocation based on what we previously discussed. I can tell you in the last three months, I've been in front of over 20 of our largest customers, and we continue to receive great feedback from our customers on our current product software service offerings as well as high marks for many of the operational and business improvements we've been making over the last two years. And most recently, I can tell you I'm receiving very positive feedback on our increasingly competitive pricing position. So that's really what's driving the early Q1 results. And that's why we're very confident calling at the trough. We're seeing that, that backlog and pipeline momentum. And we're certainly going to lean into that as we build the back half of our year here.
Brian Lee
Appreciate all that color. And then maybe just the last one, if I could squeeze in and take taking all that into account. I mean, I don't want to put words in your mouth, Kevin, but it sounds like first half of the year maybe year because of all the circumstances you just outlined, you're growing the market, but then back half of the year back to like being in line with market growth trends is that's the way to read.
Kevin Hostetler
Yes, I think it would be maybe even better in the back half and how you've left it. If we just simply look at the win rate percentages, I think we feel really good about the direction of our businesses.
Brian Lee
Okay. Fair enough. That's great. Thank you. That's it.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Mihir Mandloi with Mesirow. Please proceed with your question.
David Benjamin
Hi, this is David Benjamin on for me. But I was just wondering if you guys expect to see the same sort of gross margin breakdown in the first half versus the second half?
Despite the delta in revenues?
Kurt Wood
It will be roughly to say, obviously slightly lower, probably in the first half, given the lower scale, but not on a material basis, we expect it to be fairly constant. However, I would no doubt that as you project mix and everything else it could move quarter to quarter. You saw that in 2023 in past years, but we should be relatively consistent SLIGHTLY better in the second half than the first half.
David Benjamin
Thanks very much. And is there also any of that due to start or can you talk a little bit about like a US piece between international business and <unk> and USI. You mentioned cost downs. Are you applying those to customers both domestically internationally?
Kurt Wood
One of the great things about the product base that we have is this, you know, apply universally, obviously there are some geographic differences you have to do for compliance. But generally the cost savings we do will pass on to customers or will be in our product to help the margin and or ASP. there. And each margin has a slightly different dynamic. We approach it on a portfolio basis, as you can imagine, is receding new markets you might go in with a little bit more aggressive pricing and you will add more established products. But as long as you're looking at it on a portfolio basis, you're generally covered, and that's how we do it. I'm trying to give too much color on a region by region specific, just for competitive and customer related info, we don't want to give that secret sauce out, so to speak.
Kevin Hostetler
But the one thing I will note on the international, there's obviously not a pass through the 45 X benefits. Clearly.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Shafer with Northland Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Donovan Schafer
Hey, guys. So I want to ask about the age 250 tracker. I know I think when you initially, I was really focusing on the U.S. actually at the moment. So when you initially launched, you're going to add a push-pull design. I think like a lot of the other two row tracker companies, do I know you switched it into salary plus you have the on kind of more elevated to row ranked linked rotary because that was kind of required to the U.S. So has that, Blake, just if we can get out there like kind of brought there and what we think the backlog, the large increase in backlog you had in this quarter. You know, if you could give us kind of the mix of age 250 versus dirt tracker Omnitracs or if you could just give us some whether it's more quantitative or cause? I mean, has it risen to a level like materiality and moving a needle? And is that partly what drove that increase? And even though let's understand like the nexus of that with price with the conversations about prices, SKUs and such.
Kevin Hostetler
So what's really been happening to us in that the whole point of us launching the H.250 was to have a tracker at a lower price point to be able to compete with those super CapEx sensitive customers. And there's a handful of them right that are out there. And what we found that's really building is that as we've reduced our price on the core Dura track, that is putting a lot of pressure on those competitors that have those price sensitive and our win rate against those products using direct track has really gone way up. So what we're seeing is customers are preferring the dual track at the lower price point, far better then saying, hey, let's go and chase the H. 250 up against this other competitive platform, right? So that's where we're seeing. We still have a large backlog of quotes on the age 250. We're still pursuing that. And we think that's really important because as those competitors are and some have publicly noted that they're getting pricing pressure to reduce their price. That's where the H. 250 will come into play. But what we've seen thus far is a big uptick in the sale of dirt track versus those competitors that we targeted the H. 250 fiscal year. And while you're on it, let me let me address Omni track as well. We have and we have again getting orders, real orders for Omni track. And as we've said all along, we expect that to kind of be at that 10% to 15% of the overall share domestically versus direct track. And I think and that's really beginning to play out in kind of that volume range, if you will. So the orders in hand, I think we're already nearly on just over half of our anticipated volume for this year already. So that's beginning to translate pretty good for us at this point.
And what's more important is that's translating to our customers in that it's a very small price premium to the customers. And that's really related to the fact that you may need a couple of more foundation or post to utilize that, but it's far more offset by the amount of grading savings to our customers. So net-net that that Omni track is providing the customer several percentage points of improvement in a project even relative to direct track. So we're seeing that traction. And I think that traction is going to accelerate as more of the EPCs work with civil engineering companies and learn how to design in that product as we go forward.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Joseph Osha
Yes, thank you um, when you discussed some of the push-outs and timing issues that you've seen, one of the issues that didn't come up is cost of capital in terms of on the things your developers are struggling with. And I'm wondering if in the course of your conversations you had that is something that has has come up as a factor. And if you don't mind also, I do want to quickly follow up on the previous question. Is it your intention still to to take it 250 and drive it into the lower ASP. segment of the market? Or is am I hearing a more fundamental shift in your strategy vis a vis that and to attract? Thank you.
Kevin Hostetler
So let me I'll take the latter first, if you don't mind, no, we still intend to have the age 250 as a lower value product to be able to compete with others that may drop their price in order to maintain their market share in that segment. But again, what we're truly seeing now is much more as we move our value line closer that trade-off between us. And one of those lower-priced competitors becomes somewhat negligible with our advantages and installation costs when you add those in and that's what we're seeing. So we're seeing people start that project and say, look, this is a much better, much more competitive price. I'm going to go and start the project with a dirt track. We are the H. 250 is ready to go on. Obviously, we have lots of quotes in there for that. And internationally, it's really, really quoting off the charts at this point. We feel great about that. So what we're really focused on is having that ready to be a response so that we don't have to further decline the dirt track price. So we can do that with the H. 250. So the original thesis is still solid. It's not playing out nearly to the degree. We thought what we're seeing is the dirt track takeover much more on that I'm sorry, can you repeat your first part of the question of the push outs and so we're not just in talking to a lot of our customers and developers. There were several that talked. I can only put it in a phrase that was used to me is why go forward and finance a project today when I know it's 50 basis points cheaper. If I wait for the back half. And I look, I don't claim to be an expert in project financing, and I would think there's ways around that in the finance community, but that was a phrase and they do mean by a couple of developers over the last three months. I don't know, honestly, to what degree that's impacting things.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Colin Rusch
Thanks so much, guys. You know, you've gotten off a lot of details. I appreciate that, but I'm just curious, embedded in the guidance for this year, can you talk about the product mix and how that's trending?
You're just alluding to it. I'm just curious what the assumptions are underlying that in terms of some of the newer products versus older products larger versus smaller?
Kevin Hostetler
Yes. I don't think we give that level of detail, to be honest. And I would only say that the product mix as anticipated, a vis the Omni track is on track and the comment I'll make about the dirt track winning more against certain competitors versus the H. 250 in the near term.
Colin Rusch
Okay. And then just in R and D spending, is there an expected change in terms of how much you're going to spend on the OpEx side, looking at new products now that you feel like you've got a pretty full portfolio here, so we see that moderate a little bit.
Kevin Hostetler
So you're actually going to see that accelerate from where we feel really good about the changes we've made to our engineering organization over the last two years. And it's my commitment to the engineering organization that if they continue to bring forward, really viable products with great margin enhancements. And and this includes new software. This includes new additional services. The amount of work we're doing on, say accessories and clamping solutions and things like that. And value added engineering efforts is very substantial at this point. So we're going to continue to accelerate and spend there. And I think we're getting a phenomenal return out of that. And again, we talked earlier last year on a call relative to the amount of patents. I think we're now up to nearly 120 patents that have been granted in the last two years, which, again, is more than the previous 18 years combined. So you're just going to continue to see us build that moat around our business with technology and patents and continue to build that data as we go forward.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.
Kasope Harrison
Hi. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for taking my question.
My questions I should say. And so my first set are on the US pipeline growth and conversion. You talked about a three growth in the U.S. pipeline between 2Q 2023 and 4Q 2023. And I just want to clarify so are you saying that the growth is mainly due to cost reductions and your track or that HD 250 or that Omnitracs? And then you said your win rate has gone up recently, is that compared to early 2023, 2020 to 2021? And then finally, how should we think about pipeline conversion into orders the time line?
Kevin Hostetler
Yes. Great questions, Kashy. So when I think about win rate, what I'm comparing it to is our baseline win rate is think about it as our historical domestic market share.
Right? So think of it that way. So if our win rate was just simply equal to our historic market share, obviously, the underlying assumption is that we're seeing most projects that are out there in the market, which is not entirely true, but largely accurate, I would say. So what we tried to do is we look at that win rate accelerating above that and that tells us there's market share takeaway happening, right above that historical market share rate, and that's what we're beginning to see.
Now. We've seen that consistently for several months. So we feel really good about the fact that our our reduced pricing in the market from those structural activities is really holding up again. And I said, as I've gone out and met with many of our customers, they're really focused on. I have one large EPC come to see me here in Chandler. And the entire part of the meeting was please tell me that this is structural in nature and you're not trying to buy business because at these prices, I can lock in a lot of work going forward, right? And that was a great conversation. And we walked that, that customer through in detail the amount of work we're doing to reduce the costs for them. And it was very satisfying meet meeting on both our side. So I can I can tell you that. So again, relative to the pipeline and that pipeline is made up of a strong mix of Omni tractor and track and age 250. That's all I can say on that. It's all of the above is sitting in that pipeline at this point.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew per Coe with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Percoco
Thanks for taking the question. Tom, maybe just as a follow-up to some of the margin questions earlier, you're kind of alluding to some some declining ASPs this year. Some of that's being offset by lower commodity prices, lower manufacturing cost potentially. But I was just curious how much additional room do you have left to lower the cost of your product from here. If you were to take a 12 to 24 month view and pricing continues to come down, whether that's competition driven or otherwise, how much, you know, cost per watt, if you want to use that measure, how much left or how much further can you drive down that metric versus where you are today.
Kurt Wood
I would say a couple of things that occurred in oh one. The R&D spend that Kevin spoke about earlier isn't only for new product and touch introductions are constantly designing for how we can reduce cost out of our program as well. And also, obviously getting smarter and supply chain side around how we price logistics and redesign clamps and other things like that to to optimize. And then obviously, there's each EPC or developer does things a little bit differently. So we work with them if they have volume with us to make sure we're optimizing to make sure not just our product, but the residual balance of system costs and overall LCOE is taken into effect as well because there could be some instances where our prices a little bit higher because we're driving value on the back end where they reduce costs there. So I think we continue to have room. We will continue to design cost out age 250. As another example, it is a lower cost product of the dirt track. We have the ability to use that product if the price points get down to that level and still maintain our margin. So we will continue to focus on that. I will say our operations team has done a phenomenal job in executing the cost reduction goals that we had in 2023 and is a big reason of why we're sitting in the mid 20s margin without and any 40 buybacks or other benefits included in there at the time. So I think there's still headway and you every company will do that. You have to match that. And you think you're seeing that across the industry, and we're committed to lowering the cost of solar energy globally.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Derek Soderberg with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed with your question.
Derek Soderberg
Yes, hey, thanks for squeezing me in. Just one for me. I was curious if you could just talk a bit more about non tracker revenue opportunities on any plans or introductions this year on the non tracker play into the gross margin guidance. If so, to what degree I'm just any call-outs on the product development side there, how we should think about non tracker revenue trends on 24 thanks.
Kurt Wood
And I'll start, Kevin, maybe you can add on if you have. I think, look, we've made some good progress on there. Again, I'll talk about the structural enhancements starting with Q4. If you take the 40 buybacks, which was $9.3 million and we said we had $8.5 million of one-time charges. They net each other out. And the reason that gives us 520 basis points year over year, about three-quarters of that was coming from structural cost enhancements that Kevin talked about. And the remaining 25% was coming from these non tracker revenue sources that we have. We expect that to continue to grow in the year, probably not a very material amount above what you're seeing here, but you'd have debt therein lies a potential tailwind we have going out for promoting it, but it is factored into our guidance.
Kevin Hostetler
And just adding some color to what those entail. There's kind of three major buckets we've been focusing on. The one is accredited training programs as in order to qualify for the ITC. and domestic content provisions, you have to be able to demonstrate you're using accredited training programs and there's really a lack of them out there in the industry. So as our customers as those EPCs are hiring labor to handle future acceleration. They need to be able to have that labor set for accredited training. So we've taken the time to create many training modules and get them fully accredited. And that's already up and running at this point. And again, as I'm in front of customers, even as recent as two weeks ago, they're thrilled that there's another resource where they can send people for this accredited training. That second area was in, for lack of a better word process process ties in our services. If you will and taken some of the things that we do in terms of commissioning, Golden row inspection, health assessment, inspection services, site optimization services, all of those things that we do from time to time and productizing them so that they're highly repeatable and that we actually generate revenue for them. And again, that's really good high-value revenue for us.
And then the last is really comes down to project management and looking at where we can in-source engineering services that maybe some of our customers are doing from time to time and end, for example, the civil engineering terrain analysis that would be required to use R&D, bringing some of those services in-house and being able to provide that value added for our customers. So we're really excited about that. We're really excited about the team we've built around our services offerings, and we do expect that to continue to grow.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Dylan Nassano with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Dylan Nassano
Yes, thanks for taking my question. I'm sorry if this was already covered, but I just wanted to go back to the $300 million that you guys talked about last quarter as being on the sidelines. I guess what I'm trying to say is what is the churn or if it was any of that included in this quarter's bookings? And just generally, what is the churn in those kind of delayed projects?
Kevin Hostetler
Well, what we saw is about half of that came into the order book at this point, these are projects that they could just no longer delay. They need to get the orders to us for us to begin working with our supply chain. So we did see about half of that $300 million that were on the sideline, specifically related to IRE clarity comment, Tom, I think the rest will just roll in project by project normal course of business. We won't really call it out and with a specificity as we go forward. But I'm happy about it has already converted.
Operator
Now our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with Roth Capital Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Philip Shen
Kevin, Kurt, thanks for taking my question. And some can you quantify how much and can you quantify how much of the 45 X you might pass along to customers when the IRA first came out and you guys quantified the Tier two credit being roughly $0.016 a watt. The tortilla guy might get maybe a third or a quarter you pass along as much of a quarter third to customers and you guys keep maybe a third or half of it.
And did you pass any along in the 40 was December? Sorry, did you pass some of the 45 tax credit with the reason $600 million in bookings in Q4 or if not, when do you expect to start pass some of the 45 along?
Kevin Hostetler
So Phil, our margin guidance assumes that there will be a portion. So what we've been clear in our messaging is that that low 30s margin is net of the retained portion of our 45 X growth. We have not entered into any specific contracts requiring us to do that as of yet. But our view when we've been working with our customers and certainly our large partners, we've committed to them that there would be a level of sharing of that credit as we go forward. So we're not about to negotiate that over open a conference call, but our expectation and what's baked into our guidance. It's an expectation that there will be a portion of that that we're going to share with our customers.
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Vikram Bagri with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Vikram Bagri
Good afternoon, everyone. I think in the prepared comments, you had mentioned that you're evaluating multiple avenues to gain clarity on structural fasteners Can you talk about what avenues you are evaluating and anticipated timing of clarity on the carbon period for our 45 X clarification expired, mid Feb, but I believe you did not see clarity through that process. And on the same topic, the $40 million of 2023 I credit realized in 20 and earned in 23 to be realized in 24, is that a one-time boost to this year's EBITDA? Or we may see a similar amount of hiring credits from 24 to 25? I'm just trying to understand what is the right EBITDA, excluding any one-time boost or one-time items, but I should use for 24 is this $40 million shift from 23 to 24 is it onetime or will 24 also in at the end of 24 hours, a similar amount shifting from 24 to 25? Thank you.
Kurt Wood
And I'll take the second part first element and you can go on to the first part on the second part, regarding the one-time nature, we think it's one you didn't have all of the 45 X negotiated at it, including the structural fasteners that we know will be included going in there. There's parts that you are a little bit more vague that relief for clarity on So thank you.
At least from what we know now you're probably saying that you'll have an equal amount pushed to the following year, and that amount will provide a little bit more clarity as we go throughout the year and we provide 2025 guidance. But from what we know now, that's what I tell you at that point. I think what we're focusing on is the structural margin in the mid 25, 20% range on the core.
Kevin Hostetler
And I'll address your comments on structural fasteners. So specifically, some of the things we're doing.
So first of all, I'm really thrilled that at the end of the year, we we increased our government affairs team and hired a new SVP of external policy and government affairs. And Jessica is really having a great impact working with us and being able to navigate some of these challenges around around Washington, D.C. So setting that aside, we are active in working with providing additional clarity to the IRS in terms of additional variations of definitions around structural factors. For one, we're certainly active in in a broader political push to ensure that the structural faster elements as is further supported. And I think for us, there's kind of two categories we're focused on. The first are the amount of parts that we are already today, very confident that qualify for credits based on the current guidelines as written and our focus there isn't about changing the definition. It's really about negotiating with our parts suppliers in terms of the split, much like we did at the end of the year into early this year with our torque tube suppliers were in those same negotiations with our suppliers in hopes of retaining a disproportionate amount of that benefit as well. So once we do that, once we have clarity, we've committed to come back to the market and given and give you guys an idea of what the size of that breadbox really is the second, it is a little bit more nebulous. It's a bunch of parts that may qualify and the efforts we're doing, there's we've hired some third party engineering companies to go to evaluate those parts and the definitions and give us rendered opinions on whether or not Part A. or B or C would actually qualify under that definition. But again, we'll then take that onboard once we get the rest of the body of analytics done and as a management team will decide whether or not we feel confident enough to take some additional elements of structural fasteners. So there's a lot of work going on around that. Again, we'll maintain our commitment to come back to you when we have full clarity and disclose that. But what I will say is that an upside to the guidance we've currently provided.
Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session.
And with that, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
