Q4 2023 Sensient Technologies Corp Earnings Call
Participants
Stephen Rolfs; Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President; Sensient Technologies Corp
Paul Manning; Chairman, President and CEO; Sensient Technologies Corp
Ghansham Panjabi; Analyst; Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated
Nicola Tang; Analyst; BNP Paribas Exane
David Green; Analyst; Boldhaven Management
Presentation
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Sensient Technologies Corporation 2023 fourth-quarter and year-end earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Steve Rolfs. Please go ahead, sir.
Stephen Rolfs
Good morning. Welcome to Sensient's earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. I'm Steve Rolfs, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Sensient Technologies Corporation. I am joined today by Paul Manning, Sensient's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Yesterday, we released our 2023 fourth quarter and full year results. A copy of the release and our investor presentation is available on our website at sensient.com. During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which remove the impact of currency movements, costs of the Company's portfolio optimization plan income related to an earn-out payment received in 2022 in connection with the divestiture of our yogurt, fruit preparations business and other items. As noted in the company's filings, we believe the removal of these items provides investors with additional information to evaluate the company's performance and improves the comparability of results between reporting periods. This also reflects how management reviews and evaluates the Company's operations and performance. Non-gaap financial results should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for financial information calculated in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is available in our press release. We encourage investors to review these reconciliations in connection with the comments we make today.
I would also like to remind everyone that comments made during this call, including responses to your questions may include forward looking statements are actual results may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied due to a wide range of factors, including those set forth in our SEC filings. We urge you to read Sensient's previous SEC filings and our forthcoming 10 K for a description of additional factors that could potentially impact our financial results. Please keep these factors in mind when you analyze our comments today.
Now we'll hear from Paul Manning.
Paul Manning
Thank Steve. Good morning and good afternoon. Yesterday we reported our fourth quarter and full year results. As predicted, we continue to experience destocking throughout the fourth quarter as many of our customers continue their efforts to reduce their inventory and rightsize their balance sheet by year end. During the quarter, destocking was most pronounced in the Color Group while the flavors group experienced sequential improvements.
Now turning to our results for the Company local currency revenue was down low single digits in the quarter and was about flat for the full year of 2023. Revenue in the Flavors & Extracts Group was flat in the fourth quarter and the CholeraGarde was down high single digits in local currency. Local currency revenue. Both color and flavor improved sequentially in the fourth quarter of 23 from the third quarter. Revenue in the Asia-Pacific group was down mid-single digits in the fourth quarter, primarily due to destocking. Overall, the impact of destocking in the Asia-Pacific group has not been as pronounced as the impact in the Flavor and Color groups. As I mentioned previously, the impact quarter to quarter in Asia Pacific has been more volatile due to the order patterns of certain multinational customers. For the full year 2023, Asia-Pacific reported mid-single digit local currency revenue growth. Our consolidated adjusted local currency EBITDA was down 5.9% for the full year of 2023. As mentioned, throughout 2023, the volume declines due to destocking has had an outsized impact on our operating profit, especially when you compare our 2023 results to our outstanding results in 2020 to both color and flavor.
Reported local currency operating profit declines of about 16% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Asia-Pacific group reported a local currency operating profit decline of 12%. 2023 has been a transitional year, and we expect 2024 to be a more normal year. During 2023, customers were focused on reducing their inventory positions and rightsizing their working capital. As we begin 2024, we are already seeing an improvement in customer order patterns. We expect sequential improvement in our volumes throughout 2024, and I expect a much improved financial picture, including solid sales volume growth, local currency revenue growth and local currency adjusted operating profit growth. Our focus remains on the things that we can control. We continue to win new business across all three groups. Our sales win rate remains at a high level and we are generating incremental sales wins across most of our product lines and geographies. We continue to be focused on retaining our existing business and working with our customers on new development activities. Our focus on customer service and on-time delivery are a direct contributor to our high sales win rate in the fourth quarter. We also initiated a portfolio optimization plan. This plan is designed to rightsize our cost base and to optimize our organizational structure with a focus on driving improved productivity in certain businesses and functions and delivering significant cost improvement. The plan will look to optimize our production operations in both colors and flavors and to centralize and eliminate SG. and ESG. and A. redundancies and activities in certain functional areas within both groups. The objective of this plan is to deliver annual cost savings of approximately eight to $10 million once fully implemented by the end of 2025, including the costs incurred in the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect to incur pretax charges of approximately $40 million, of which approximately $30 million will be noncash. We are carefully managing this process to ensure our ability to meet customers' needs and to minimize the disruption to the business. We are also beginning the consultation process with certain European employee groups in connection with our plan. We're also announcing that we are increasing our Board of Directors from nine seats to 10. We are nominating Brett Redman for election to the Board of Directors at our 2024 Annual Meeting in April. Brett is the Chief Operating Officer of Land O'Lakes and brings over 30 years of food industry and agricultural experience. Brett's insights will be invaluable as we continue our expansion in natural colors and flavors across many of our businesses.
Now turning to 2024, I expect Sensient to return to sales volume growth. And I expect consolidated annual revenue to grow at a low to mid single digit rate on a local currency basis with low single digit pricing. I expect good operating leverage and margin improvement across our groups as we experienced improved fixed cost coverage and a lower inflationary environment as revenue and volume growth resume profit improvement will trail sales improvement by a quarter or so on a consolidated basis, I expect Centene to deliver low to mid-single digit and thus adjusted local currency EBITDA growth for the year within our Flavors & Extracts Group, our new sales win rate is robust. The group delivered a high level of new sales wins in 2023, and we expect strong new sales wins in 2020 for customer service remains at a high level and continues to be a top priority. The group has seen a reduction in certain raw material costs. However, many raw material costs such as citrus and various agricultural inputs remain elevated. The impacts of destocking improve each quarter in 2023, and we believe our customers have substantially completed destocking. Therefore, I expect the Flavor Group to have a much improved 2024 with low to mid-single digits local currency revenue growth.
Color Group also had an outstanding new sales win rate in 2023, particularly in natural colors. And we expect an equally robust new sales win rate in 2024. Customers accelerated their destocking in the back half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter. Most of the impact of destocking is over. However, we do anticipate a modest amount in the first quarter of this year. Overall, I expect the Color Group to deliver low to mid-single digit local currency revenue growth in 2020.
For Asia, Pacific's focus on sales execution, customer service and broadening its product portfolio has positioned the Group nicely for 2020 for the Group continued to deliver a high level of new sales wins throughout 2023. These new wins will continue to benefit 2024 and expect the group will deliver. New sales wins at a high rate again in 2020 for the Group has been impacted by destocking at certain larger multinational companies as mentioned earlier, this has produced some volatile swings in the Asia-Pacific group order patterns and results that will be the case again during the first quarter of this year.
Overall, I expect the Asia Pacific Group to deliver mid single digit revenue growth in 2024. I'm optimistic about 2024. As I said earlier, we're focused on the things we can control our focus on sales execution, customer service and our innovative technologies are contributing to the high level of new sales wins we are generating across the Company. Our sales pipelines remain strong and we continue to work on new product applications with our customers. We expect this focus on new sales wins and an overall moderation and destocking to drive volume growth in 2024 compared to 2023. Our portfolio optimization plan will improve our manufacturing footprint and improve our overall cost structure. We expect this plan will generate modest profit improvement in 2024. Once fully implemented by the end of 2025, we expect that will generate annual savings of approximately $8 million to $10 million.
We also continue to strategically manage our inventory positions, and we expect our overall inventory levels to decline in 2024. We have seen strong improvement to our cash flow in 2023, and we expect continued improvement in 2024. In this elevated interest environment, we remain focused on reducing our debt and our interest expense. Our product portfolio is strong. We remain focused on our key customer markets of food, pharmaceutical and personal care. Our strategy remains sound, and we are well positioned for future growth. Steve will now provide you with additional details on the fourth quarter results.
Stephen Rolfs
Thank you, Paul. In my comments this morning, I will be explaining the differences between our GAAP results and our adjusted results. The adjusted results for 2023, remove the cost of the portfolio optimization plan and the adjusted results for 2020 to remove the income related to an earn-out payment received in connection with the divestiture of our yogurt fruit prep business. We believe that the removal of these items provides a more clear picture to investors of the Company's performance. This also reflects how management reviews the Company's operations and performance.
Sensient's revenue was $349.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $348.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Sensient's operating income of $8.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $41.2 million of income in the comparable period last year. Operating income in the fourth quarter of 2023 includes $27.8 million or approximately $0.65 per share of portfolio optimization costs, which are primarily noncash.
Operating income in the fourth quarter of 2022 included income of $2.5 million or approximately $0.04 per share related to the post-closing earn-out payment received from the sale of our yogurt fruit prep business in 2020. Excluding the items just mentioned, adjusted operating income was $35.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $38.7 million in the prior year period. Interest expense was $6.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $4.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Company's consolidated adjusted tax rate was 26.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 19.7% in the comparable period of 2022. Adjusted local currency EBITDA was down 8.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023, foreign currency increased revenue and adjusted operating income by approximately 2%. Cash flow from operations was $170 million in 2023 compared to $12 million in 2022. Capital expenditures were $88 million in 2023 compared to $79 million in 2022. Total debt was $658.5 million as of December 31, 2023. Sensient's improving cash flow allowed us to reduce debt by $13 million in the fourth quarter and by $43 million in the second half of 2023. Our net debt to credit adjusted EBITDA is 2.6 as of December 31st, 2023. Overall, our balance sheet remains well positioned to support our capital expenditures, sensible M&A and our long-standing dividend and any excess cash will be used to pay a minimum to pay down debt. At this time, we expect 2024 capital expenditures to be around $65 million.
Regarding our 2024 guidance, we expect our 2024 local currency revenue, local currency adjusted EBITDA and our local currency adjusted EPS to be up in the low to mid single digits in 2024. Considering our GAAP earnings per share in 2024. We expect approximately $0.15 of portfolio optimization costs in 2024. We expect our GAAP EPS in 2024 to be between $2.80 and $2.90 compared to our 2023 GAAP EPS of $2.21 in 2024. Our EPS will be impacted by continued higher interest expense based on current interest rates, we expect our interest expense to increase by approximately $3 million compared to our 2023 full year interest expense of $25.2 million. Also, we expect our 2024 full year adjusted tax rate to be in the range of 24% to 25% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, our tax rate will fluctuate and therefore, we continue to believe our local currency adjusted EBITDA growth is an important measure of our performance.
Thank you for participating on our call today. We will now open the call for questions.
Question and Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.
Ghansham Panjabi
Hey, guys. Good morning, Warren, Johnson. Morning. Maybe just first off, kind of thinking back to the fourth quarter, can you just give us a sense as to what as you from a volume standpoint in the fourth quarter, kind of looking back and maybe you can give us a sense as to how the quarter progressed monthly and also what you're seeing what you saw, I should say in Jan.
Stephen Rolfs
So I would tell you the thing that surprised me the most was the acceleration of the destocking in color we had as we were going through 2023 and flavors really started destocking, you could say in late 2022, and that continued pretty well throughout the year. Color lag that you may recall, last year, Q1 color had a pretty good I think was something like about nine or 10% top line growth. So the color destocking really didn't begin until about Q2 in earnest with our customers. And so all along, we had kind of projected that flavors would be done largely by the end of 2023 with destocking. And I think we could say that that is the case. But we also felt color would lag by really a full quarter that destocking impact, I think with the acceleration and destocking that we saw in Q4. I think we can now say that to the extent there would be destocking in the Color Group in Q1 of 24, it would be rather modest so that was probably the single biggest surprise. But I suppose in retrospect, as customers are trying to kind of clear the decks, so to speak, on the balance sheet and working capital and just kind of rightsize things and that they would have attempted to do that across each of their ingredients and other raw materials. So that would have really been the only one from a from a surprise standpoint on volume. As we looked at January, as you kind of got from my comments in the in the opening, we're kind of cautiously optimistic. There's a lot of positives that we're seeing right now. I think January was a pretty good month for us. Let's see, though, right, there's a lot of we're coming off probably one of the most unusual markets in the last 50 years, it was what I would call it 2023 as our customers transitioned out of COVID inventory positions and they changed their focus with respect to developmental opportunities in some cases. So I think 2024, we'd like to believe that it is a back to normal year, early signs would suggest that that is the case. And but I think that the plan will continue to unfold as the year progresses. But I would say we're cautiously optimistic following the results we saw in January.
Ghansham Panjabi
That's helpful. And then in terms of the new wins that you cited on a specific segment and in new products that you want to highlight as we sort of think about 2024 just from a customer appetite for new innovation and kind of kickstart velocity, if you will, at the end market retailer?
Stephen Rolfs
Yes. So the new win rate. I was very, very happy with that in each of the groups throughout 2023. That is one of the key metrics that we measure in the business. The size of your sales pipeline, that could be a good metric. But really the reality is it's points on the board and that's best represented by wins, which is a customer now gives you a purchase order for that project you've been working on. And so we had record wins in 2022 across each of the groups. And we came we exceeded that in some in 23. And we came very, very close and others, but overall, still very strong new win rate across each of the groups. Lots of new wins within the realm of natural colors. So as our strategy has been focused in the Food Color business on accelerating our innovation there, our supply chain and our production capacity, we were able to really leverage all three of those in developing some very, very unique applications and technologies for a number of customers, not only for new to the market launches, but actually some some compelling and very interesting conversions from synthetic colors. So those are some very exciting wins. There were a number of very exciting wins on the flavor front, high quality flavor wins that not only would that utilize a traditional flavor but could also incorporate and extract. They could also incorporate some dimension of a taste modulation technology, whether this is sweetness enhancement or sodium reduction. And so we had a number of very, very interesting wins across not only beverage and sweet, but in some of our savory segments as well.
The pharmaceutical business, we continue to make very, very good progress there, not only with respect to natural colors in these over-the-counter nutraceutical applications, but also in flavors. And so we have uncovered some very good opportunities there generate some very interesting wins on that front. And then, of course, our S&I business, part of our Flavor group, we had a series of very, very interesting and significant wins in our onion in our Garlock business. So lots to be very, very excited about in 24. These wins that we generated in 23, many of them carry over into 24, but the pace of our wins right out of the gate in January, I'm quite excited about. So yes, pretty pretty broad-based set of wins, which speaks to the investments we made in our sales force in our innovation platforms and in overall just customer service and responsiveness.
Ghansham Panjabi
Okay. And then just finally on your guidance, you know, it looks like it's low to mid-single digits throughout sales, EBITDA EPS. Why wouldn't operating leverage be higher in context of what you're doing in terms of portfolio optimization, et cetera? And then separately, Steve, congrats on your retirement announcement on best wishes for the future. Thanks so much.
Stephen Rolfs
Thank you. So I would say maybe the guidance is a little bit conservative. And when we say low to single low single digit to mid single digit. There's a bit of a range implied within each one of those. And so I think after the first quarter, as has been our practice. We will kind of give you an update and a sense of things as the year progresses. But I'd like to set kind of the floor where we're going to be. And I feel very confident that unlike 23 where there is a tremendous amount of volatility and destocking and all these other factors, our guidance kind of signals that we believe that that is over and the magnitude of our new wins would be able to overcome any market dynamics, the degree of that ability to overcome. But let's see how the year progresses. Many of our customers are very much driving for volume growth. That would be a really nice development. And the new wins generate lots of volume. Pricing is a fairly nominal thing for 2024. So yes, the volume comes in to your point, we should have really nice operating leverage in the businesses. But with respect to the portfolio, improvement plan, how much of that benefit will be obviously spread out over 2024 and 2025. We endeavor to get those things done as quickly as possible. But I'm realistic enough to realize that you can screw those up if you're if you're not very, very thoughtful and particular about how you do those. So we have a lot of experience here, we have a lot of lessons learned Johnson as well going back to sort of 2017 sight. I'm feeling very, very confident that this one will be executed quite smartly and I don't anticipate any issues there, but the savings will flow in over that, say two year period. But yes, I'd like to be able to tell you next quarter you know what things are looking even better than I thought. But for right now, I think this is a pretty good start to the year and a pretty good I've guidance that I think we can all feel very committed to achieving.
Ghansham Panjabi
Thanks so much. Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator
Nicola Tang, BNP Paribas.
Nicola Tang
Hi, everyone. And thanks for taking the questions. I let go of starting. I know you're just starting to touch on one of the topics which I wanted to ask about, which is the portfolio optimization plan and you reference your learnings from 2017. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that and what gives you. I'm confident that the portfolio optimization plan will run more smoothly this time. And also just in terms of the areas that you identified, how did you sort of make that and around which specific plants or production sites to shut down. And just tying up on the same topic, can we should we take an even split in terms of the cost savings across flavors and colors.
Paul Manning
Okay. So number one, this said, we will periodically review sites, business units. We look at the different dimensions of the business and we see what part is running well and has a optimized production footprint, for example, or we're able to achieve good synergies. And so I think as we looked at the overall portfolio, we came up with the one that we did. It's quite a bit smaller than anything we've done previously. So I suppose to your question about how do we think this is going to go and do you think we'll do well here. I think it's much smaller. In one instance. We're moving a plant in Europe. We've begun the consultation process there. And so that is a plant that's very similar to one that we successfully consolidated in the past. So that gives me a great deal of confidence. In fact, most of the folks who were involved with that are running this one as well. So that is a that would probably be the biggest and component of the project is a value, is that one plant in Europe that we would consolidate into the Americas. I think the other thing is just that there are lots of lessons learned from the previous restructuring and that, you know, I was a CEO. then and I'm responsible for the screw ups. And so I know what all the screw ups are. And so we've made a very concerted effort to plan differently and evaluate those differently. And so I think we've put more resources towards this project. And again, we can anticipate with a great deal of confidence that where the trouble areas would be on such a move beyond that one plant that produces pride. Most of the other activities are really SG&A related. So they don't specifically involve the production of our products, the movement or the transition of one product from another that was the most complicated and problematic of our previous restructuring is trying to requalify products in other plants. It's a decidedly complex and difficult thing. There's a lot less of that. In fact, I would almost say very little of that associated with this restructuring versus, say some of the previous activities that we had.
And how do we assess the site who makes money who doesn't make as much money. It's pretty much how you evaluate a stock or any other investment portfolio. And so it is, in fact, a portfolio optimization program. From that sense, these two facilities were the two lowest, probably the two lowest returning facilities in the company. And so I think we've addressed that. We made an effort, but there is such thing as a sunk cost fallacy, and we're not going to fall for it.
In terms of the split, it's probably about 50 50 colors play on Steve, you want to give more details on the split in terms of the savings?
Stephen Rolfs
Yes, no, it is about 50 50, maybe a little bit more by the end with flavors and some of the activities in flavors will take a little longer. But at the end of the program, it will be about 50 50 flavors and colors.
Nicola Tang
Thank you. That's helpful. With all the detail. Can I ask a question about pricing? I think in the opening remarks you mentioned for 2024, you expect low single digit pricing. Is this are you implementing new pricing as of today? Or is this carryover from previous price initiatives, I suppose tied on to that and could you talk a little bit about your expectations for input costs this year?
Paul Manning
Thanks. Yes, so that's right. It's a low single digit is what we would expect the impact to be if you were to add up all the pricing and divided by the total revenue of the company, it would be in that low single digit range, and that's principally pricing that was put into effect January first. I would say if there was carryover was fairly modest. We are more than likely back into a world where we negotiate pricing annually. Traditionally in this ingredient space, it would be kind of a January first anniversary date for the majority of your customers. But there may be others who have an April first or July first, but in general, think January first. And so this was I think we're back to that more traditional. We negotiate once per year with an effective date of January first. And so that low single digit is sort of the culmination of that fourth quarter activity with the January first effective date. And with respect to input costs, as I mentioned, many have moderated some of them linger, but I think by and large, the low single digits gets us to where we need to be with respect to recovering any of the inflation on those input costs.
But on the on the negative side, right. There's still elevated energy costs and parts of the world. Labor is still an elevated dimension of input costs. We do have agricultural products. We talked about that on the last call, you grow those in a previous year where fertilizers were expensive and water was expensive. That land was expensive and there was a lot of run-up to that. And now we're in the world of selling those products that had the elevated previously elevated costs. And so we have a little bit of that going on from the agricultural side of the business but I think by and large the market's moving in the right direction with respect to input costs.
Nicola Tang
Thanks. And then maybe a final one on the Asian business. You mentioned that there's been quite a lot of volatility leading to kind of the order volatility of the multinational customer base.
Paul Manning
And with that in mind, what gives you confidence in the mid-single-digit growth outlook and Asia in 2024, the new win rates that they have, their execution of pricing increases and very, very clear communications with our customer as to what they see in the market and when they believe their order patterns would resume with switching, which is to say this year. So I think those three factors come together. And I think again, we have a little bit of a choppy Q1 owing to that destocking, but not as a result of a poor win rate or poor pricing or added control inflation. Those factors the ones again that we can control, I think, are well in hand, and it's just a matter of kind of working through the last of this patchy destocking. But yes, I think that we're through that in Q1. And then Asia is back on track that they've been on a nice tear for the last, say, four or five years. So I think they're back on track largely after Q1 here.
Nicola Tang
That's great. Thank you very much.
Paul Manning
Okay. Thanks, Nicola.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) David Green, Boldhaven.
David Green
Hi, Paul. Hi, Stephen. I'm just an initial question regarding and the guidance which you have alluded to pull anyway and the narrative this year in terms of the headwind from the destock, I've been very much along the lines of destock running, you know, high single digit, but the win rate. So underlying growth running up a similar amount. And so net-net, you're kind of in the middle of sort of like flattish growth. So I'm just sort of trying to understand as we go through 2024 and the destock, it clearly unwinds, why would we not be seeing a more significant improvement in top-line come through in 24. What we could is the short answer is I've guided low to mid and as I said, let's see how your math is correct. I mean, destocking did have a negative high single digit impact from a revenue standpoint, new wins more than eclipse that I'm so sure that could definitely happen. But then again, if I'm wrong, I'm in big trouble. So let's start with low to mid and let's see how things go from there.
Paul Manning
And I guess just in terms of understanding color specifically in the destock there and then the sort of trajectory as we go into into sort of Q1 and the rest of the year, what has that been? Has that been focused on any specific areas still is that still mainly cosmetics where there's the destock that is needing to come through? And then I guess, thinking more about what kind of top line you can deliver in colors and should we expect a sort of return to sort of a positive organic growth within colors within the first half?
So the color destocking, it was food colors and cosmetics. So you're right about that. It would appear as we look back at this and conduct somewhat of an autopsy, although we were seeing this as it was going as well, customers very much started with destocking at the highest value items they had on their balance sheet, which is a fairly logical approach, flavors and colors, whether drive for food products or in the case of colors, cosmetic products, those tend to be lower valued items on a balance sheet rather just not nearly as expensive as some of the ingredients and input costs that our customers have. So, you know, as they went down the list and focus on the highest value, eventually they got two flavors and then they got the colors. And so I think that's largely why you saw the progression that you did. And then, of course, with colors being somewhat after flavors, but still with the desire to kind of clear the decks by the end of the year, you saw that Q4 acceleration of destocking in colors, not only for food, but for cosmetics. The underlining growth in the food industry in North America continues to be as well in Q4 2023 was negative. There was actually a decline of 1% or two in the overall market. Europe, we believe it was about flattish and then in other parts of Asia was up. So with respect to cosmetics, though, you had somewhat of a mixed bag at the Prestige level, the high end level, we see good volume growth and we see good volume opportunities at the mass market level. That's where there is a considerable degree of destocking and perhaps even a reduction in consumer demand that though, is very good for our business because in terms of the product that we develop and the portfolio that we have, it can not only serve the mass market, but in particular conserve the prestige market quite successfully.
So I think that you look at Q1 here.
Yes, though there will be a touch of destocking in both food and cosmetics, but in out there is that you can only get your inventory levels so low before you have to start ordering. And that's and obviously, what we started to see here with many of these customers.
But to go back to the to your previous question a little bit, again, 2023 was sort of a once-in-a-century dynamic in the food and personal care space, nothing like that has ever happened. So anybody's ability to predict if anybody is going to tell you, this is exactly what's going to happen there, making it up in my opinion, nobody's there is no wise old man here. And so we're going to go with what our customers are telling us what they're projecting, but it's what they're projecting. So we're going to focus on our pricing. We're going to focus on our service levels and we have focused on our win rates and that that low to mid-single. But longer term, we should be right back on track with our mid-single digit revenue where we were in 20 and 21 and 22. So I'm confident in the long-term. It's just a question of when do we get to the long-term? Is it Q2 to Q3, maybe at the end of Q1, we'll see, yes.
David Green
Right. And then just thinking about the momentum that you're seeing in flavors and extracts. It sounds like there are some really sort of solid when it wins that we should we expect those to be coming through pretty quickly in terms of the top line?
Stephen Rolfs
Yes, I think flavors will will kind of be faster out of the gate than colors. And again, they also they have very, very strong win rate and they got. They're kind of out of the destocking now. So I think those two things conspire to make for a good start to the year for flavors.
David Green
Great, Manny.
Okay. Thank you, David.
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to the company for any closing remarks.
Stephen Rolfs
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for participating in our call today. That will conclude our call. Thank you.
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.
