Q4 2023 Verra Mobility Corp Earnings Call
Participants
Mark Zindler; VP of IR; Verra Mobility Corporation
David Roberts; President, CEO & Director; Verra Mobility Corporation
Craig Conti; Executive VP & CFO; Verra Mobility Corporation
Keith Housum; Analyst; Northcoast Research Partners, LLC
Faiza Alwy; Analyst; Deutsche Bank AG
Daniel Moore; Analyst; CJS Securities, Inc
Louie DiPalma; Analyst; William Blair & Company L.L.C
David Koning; Analyst; Robert W. Baird & Co.
Presentation
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Verra Mobility fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, February 29, 2024.
And I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mark Zindler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Mark Zindler
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Verra Mobility's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Today, we'll be discussing the results announced in our press release issued after the market close along with our earnings presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.verramobility.com.
With me on the call are David Roberts, Verra Mobility's Chief Executive Officer, and Craig Conti, our Chief Financial Officer. David will begin with prepared remarks, followed by Craig, and then we'll open up the call for Q&A.
Management may make forward-looking statements during the call regarding future events, anticipated future trends, and the anticipated future performance of the company. We caution you that such statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.
These factors are described in our SEC filings. Please refer to our earnings press release for Verra Mobility's complete forward-looking statement disclosure. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.
Finally, during today's call, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release, which can be found on our website at ir.verramobility.com. and on the SEC's website at sec.gov.
With that, I'll turn the call over to David.
David Roberts
Thank you, Mark, and thanks everyone for joining us today. For today's call, I'm going to first provide a high-level discussion on our strong fourth quarter results and key drivers. I'll then move on to a discussion of several key trends that are shaping the smart mobility market, before closing with our strategic priorities that will influence our 2024 operating plan and build upon the foundations for the long-term outlook that we outlined at our Investor Day in July of 2022.
We delivered fantastic results for the fourth quarter, highlighted by robust revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Fourth quarter revenue of $211 million exceeded our expectations and was primarily driven by strong US travel and tolling trends in our commercial services segment. Adjusted EBITDA of $91 million for the fourth quarter was slightly ahead of our forecast, despite an approximate $4 million onetime noncash charge, which Craig will elaborate on in his remarks.
Our strong results are aligned with three macro trends across our operating segments. First, we're seeing strong travel demand by both consumers and businesses, particularly in the US. Recent commentary from the major airlines and our RAC partners suggest continued strong demand through at least the first half of 2024.
The second macro trend is the continued push for safer roads and communities which drives the need for investments in automated safety enforcement. We experienced a record year in 2023 with the passage of new automated safety enforcement legislation as lawmakers across the globe recognize the efficacy that automated safety solutions have in reducing traffic fatalities. And lastly, the complexity surrounding university municipality parking create opportunities for customers to use our software enabled parking management solutions.
Now moving on to our business unit operation, the commercial services team delivered outstanding results driven by strong and durable domestic travel trends and our continued strong performance in the fleet management business.
Fourth quarter revenue of $95 million grew 16% over the year -- the prior year quarter. And adjusted EBITDA margins of 66% were up about 570 basis points over last year due to the strength and RAC tolling revenue and prior year FMC growth investments.
As we disclosed in an 8-K and you'll see discussed in our earnings release and Form 10-K, we entered into a business arrangement with PlusPass, which fully and finally resolved all litigation and disputes between the parties and pursuant to which we had acquired certain assets from PlusPass. We accrued $31.5 million for this matter at December 31, 2023, and the resulting payment will be made during the first quarter of 2024.
Transitioning back to the business fundamentals. Full-year 2023 TSA volume was about 101% of 2019 volume and about 113% of 2022 volume. RAC tolling revenue increased 23% over the prior year quarter due to increases in adopted rental agreements, the increased adoption of all-inclusive pricing plans and a durable trend of longer car rentals.
Additionally, our FMC business generated 24% growth over the prior year quarter, primarily driven by enrollments of new vehicles and tolling growth from existing customers. The FMC business delivered $63 million of revenue in 2023, representing double-digit year-over-year growth, an outstanding accomplishment. I'm incredibly proud of our team's execution efforts.
Looking ahead, as I've discussed previously, we expect FMC revenue growth to slow to mid to high single digits, primarily as a result of tougher comps in 2024. I'm also pleased to report the launch of Hertz Italy in the fourth quarter of 2023. We're excited to support our partner in the rollout of their tolling program in Italy, a market with strong and growing cashless tolling trends.
Lastly, the secular trends underpinning these business drivers continued conversion to cashless tolling and new toll roads continued to positively impact our business. Cashless or all electronic toll roads reached approximately 67% penetration this year. This past year, nine newest toll roads were completed in 2023 as well, including in the metropolitan Washington DC area, Denver, Colorado and Orange County, California.
As we look forward, CS is positioned as a high single-digit grower driven by strong and durable travel trends, continued growth in cashless tolling, and new toll roads, the transition to all-inclusive pricing plans, segment expansion in a nascent, but attractive connected vehicle opportunity.
Moving on to government solutions. Recurring service revenue, which reflects 97% of total revenue for the quarter grew 10% over the same period last year. The recurring service revenue growth was driven by program expansion from existing customers and new cities implementing photo enforcement efforts to improve road safety. To this point, outside of New York City, we drove strong revenue growth due to our existing customer's demand to expand their programs.
From a profitability standpoint, government solutions adjusted EBITDA declined 22% compared to the prior year due to a non-cash charge I mentioned earlier, and the platform investments that we're making in the business. Looking forward, in addition to the new legislation passed in Florida, Connecticut, Colorado, Washington State, and California, Pennsylvania signed new automated enforcement legislation into law in the fourth quarter.
The legislation enables new use cases in select cities, including schools on speed management and school bus stop arm safety. It also extends and expands existing use cases for works and speed management and highway speed management. The passage of this new legislation resulted in a significant TAM expansion, which we currently estimated about $50 million and potentially growing to approximately $150 million annually within the next few years, if the legislation allows.
Moving forward, we're now focused on the next steps in the procurement process. In Florida, procurement processes are ramping up and in California, we may see RFPs as early as the second quarter continuing into the second half of the year. In Colorado and Washington state, we have had success expanding existing programs enabled by the new legislation and we have won several new procurements.
Additionally, in the international side of the business, we are experiencing attractive award activity in our expansion efforts in New Zealand as well as expansion in new business awards across several provinces in Canada. In New York City, we are awaiting the issuance of the RFP for the sales automated enforcement renewal contract. The timing of the RFP's is uncertain, but we are working hard to position ourselves for a successful outcome more to come as this process moves forward.
Now stepping back and looking at the big picture. GS is currently positioned at the mid-single digit grower on the basis of our existing portfolio, improving net retention rates. We are operating in a very favorable environment as states continue to demonstrate confidence and optimism, and enabling various use cases to automate traffic, safety, and make mobility safer and easier.
Moving onto T2 systems, fourth quarter total revenue increased 13% over the prior year quarter, driven by strength in software services revenue. Adjusted EBITDA of $5 million was in line with our expectations and reflects year over year SaaS and services revenue growth.
We expect Q2's growth rate to moderate to mid-single digits in 2024, but over the long term, we continue to see T2 growing at a high single digits, driven by the strength and focus on SaaS and the introduction of transactional revenue pricing opportunities. Additionally, in hardware, particularly pay stations will likely become a smaller percentage of revenue as the market transitions away from hardware and continues to move towards software and mobile solutions.
Turning to the balance sheet and capital allocation, over the course of 2023, we fully destocked in our fifth year of being a publicly traded company. I am pleased to report, we lowered net leverage for nearly a full turn over the course of 2023, ending the year at 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA. In addition, we purchased $100 million of shares over the course of 2023. And in November, as we previously reported, our Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for $100 million.
Overall, 2023 was a record year in Verra Mobility's history, setting new all-time highs in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS. We benefited from the record airline passenger traffic with 2023 TSA volume at 101% of 2019 levels. And in government solutions, we experienced highly favorable legislative environment, resulting in a long-term total addressable market expansion of up to $150 million.
Next, I am pleased to report that we recently published our inaugural corporate responsibility report, which outlines how our core values, purpose, vision, and operating system form the foundation of our corporate responsibility strategy. We believe that our technology helps to make the world safer and a better place and are committed to being good corporate citizens and supporting the communities in which we and our customers live and work.
Now I will turn to our top strategic priorities for in 2024. Over the past two years, we've implemented a Verra Mobility operating system or VMOS, a robust standard business system that drives growth, efficiency, and talent development. At the heart of VMO, there are three strategic pillars: drive core business outcomes, build the Verra Mobility to future, and create engaging and fulfilling workplace experience.
As you'll see on slide 5, in 2024, we established key objectives for each of these pillars, focusing on financial execution of the 2024 annual plan, leverage recent investments capitalize and expanded TAM's and drive operating efficiencies, pursuit of accretive expansion opportunities, accelerating our portfolio model adoption, and making Verra Mobility a best place to work. Through execution of our three strategic pillars, we are poised to deliver superior long-term value creation for all stakeholders.
Next, I'll drill down a layer and focus on key priorities for each of our business segments as described in more detail on slide 6, 7 and 8.
In commercial services where we benefit from strong secular tailwinds including increased adoption of cashless tolling, new toll roads and a transition to all-inclusive pricing models, we are focused on growing the core while simultaneously capitalizing our numerous expansion opportunities.
Our top priorities include execute the core business while investing in growth, continued segment expansion in fleet management and European tolling enforcement and violations, and laying the foundation to capitalize on next-generation connected vehicle opportunities. In government solutions where we benefit from an expanding addressable market for automated enforcement, our top priorities are to win our share of new contract awards in Florida, Colorado, Washington, California, Canada, and New Zealand, position ourselves to retain the New York City at contract renewal, and leverage 2023 and 2024 investments in our software platform to enhance our strategic advantages.
And finally, in T2 systems, where we have significant runway for continued growth and profitability in the university segment as well as our focused efforts to penetrate the municipality segment, our focus is on the following priorities. Continue to focus on growing our high margin core permits and enforcement business, successfully launched new products to drive transactional revenue growth and investments in our software platform further enhanced strategic position.
These are our top priorities as we execute our strategy in 2024. As I've said previously, this is a great business with a bright future, and I look forward to sharing updates on our progress as we execute our plan in 2024.
Craig, I'll turn it over to you to guide us through our financial results and 2024 guidance.
Craig Conti
Thanks, David. Good afternoon and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call. I'll start out today by providing an overview of our fourth quarter and full-year 2023 results, followed by a detailed overview of how we're thinking about 2024.
Let's turn to slide 9, which outlines the key financial measures for the consolidated business for the fourth quarter. Total revenue increased approximately 13% year-over-year to about $211 billion for the quarter, driven by strong recurring service revenue growth across the company. Recurring service revenue grew 13% over the prior year quarter, driven by strong travel demand in the CS business and recurring service revenue growth outside of New York City and GS business.
At the segment level, commercial services revenue grew 16% year-over-year. Government solutions service revenue increased by 10% over the prior year, and T2 systems, Saas and services revenue grew 10% over the fourth quarter of last year. Product revenue was $9 million for the quarter, about $6 million of this was from T2 systems, while $3 million was from government solutions, the majority of which were international product sales.
From a total profit standpoint, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $91 million increased by approximately 9% over last year. As David mentioned, we took a $4 million non-cash charge in the GS business for inventory obsolescence, largely driven by supply chain optimization. Excluding this charge, year over year, adjusted EBITDA growth would have been 14% and consolidated margins would have been about 45%, which is consistent with Q4 of 2022. We reported net income of $3 million for the quarter, including the $31.5 million PlusPass approval pursuant to our legal settlement, which is discussed in more detail in our 10-K.
Adjusted EPS, which exclude amortization, stock-based compensation, and other non-recurring items including the PlusPass legal settlement was $0.24 per share for the current quarter compared to $0.25 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022. The primary driver for the reduction compared to the prior year was a $4 million pretax inventory write-down in the GS segment in our increased share count resulting from the exercise of warrants and the issuance of earn-out shares in the second and third quarter of this year.
As David mentioned earlier, the company is fully back with no remaining warrants or earn-out shares. We delivered $19 million of free cash flow for the quarter, which resulted in meeting our annual guidance of 40% full year conversion rate, but was below our recent quarterly run rate largely driven by timing.
The primary factors driving our performance were $14 million in accounts receivable we expected to collect in December, which shifted to early January and about $4 million of incremental CapEx relative to quarterly trends. When comparing to the fourth quarter of 2022, in that period, we generated a source of working capital about $16 million higher than normal, driven by increased collections and higher accounts payable balances. Moving forward, I expect to return to an approximate $40 million free cash flow run rate subject to historical seasonality in our CS business.
Turning to slide 10, we generated about $372 million of adjusted EBITDA on approximately $817 million of revenue for the full year, representing a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin. Additionally, we generated about $149 million of free cash flow for a 40% conversion of adjusted EBITDA, representing $0.93 of free cash flow per share for full year 2023.
Moving to commercial services on slide 11, we delivered revenue of about $95 million in the fourth quarter, increasing $13 million or 16% year over year. RAC tolling revenue increased 23% or about $12 million over the same period last year, driven by robust travel demand and increased rental volume. Additionally, our FMC business grew 24% or about $3 million year over year as our growth initiatives continue to produce the intended results.
Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in commercial services was $62 million, representing 27% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA margins of about 66%, a 570 basis point increase over the fourth quarter of last year were largely driven by the continued strength in RAC tolling and execution of our growth initiatives. For the full year, commercial services generated $373 million of revenue or 14% growth over last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $242 million resulted in margins of about 65%, a 100 basis point improvement over prior year, driven by volume-based operating leverage.
Let's turn to slide 12 and we'll take a look at the results of the government solutions business. Driven primarily by growth outside of our largest customer New York City, service revenue increased by $8 million or 10% over the same period last year to $91 million for the quarter.
Product revenue was about $3 million for the quarter and was driven by internationally -- was primarily driven by international programs. Adjusted EBITDA was $24 million for the quarter, representing margins of 26%. The reduction in margins versus the prior year is due to the $4 million inventory obsolescence rate data previously discussed and increased spending on platform investments in business development efforts. For the full year, government solutions generated $358 million of total revenue, a 6% increase over 2022 and adjusted EBITDA was $114 million for the year, effectively flat with the prior year.
Let's turn to slide 13 and take a view of the results of T2 systems, which is our parking solutions business site. Revenue of $23 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million were in line with expectations for the quarter. Software and services sales increased 10% over the prior year quarter and product revenue increased to $6 million for the quarter. This sequential increase is consistent with historical seasonal trends. For the full year, T2 delivered revenue of $86 million or approximately 9% growth over last year and adjusted EBITDA of $15 million.
Okay, let's turn to slide 14 and discuss the balance sheet and take a closer look at leverage. As you can see, we ended the year with a net debt balance of $918 million, resulting in net leverage of 2.5 times at year end as well as significant liquidity with our undrawn credit reward.
The primary drivers of the reduced leverage for strong free cash flow in the exercise of warrants which yielded approximately $160 million in cash proceeds during the second and third quarter of 2023. Through year end, we paid down approximately $180 million of floating rate term loan debt. Our gross debt balance at year end spend stands at about $1.1 billion, of which approximately $700 million is floating rate debt.
With a notional hedge of approximately $675 million, we have hedged about 95% of our current floating debt total with the float for fixed rate swap. This hedging instrument fixes the SOFR proportion of our term loan B at a rate of 5.2% for two more years, with a monthly option to cancel that began in December of 2023 that we can execute in the event that interest rates move in our favor.
In addition, subsequent to the end of the fourth quarter, we completed a successful repricing of our $700 million term loan B. Our offering was materially oversubscribed, and we achieved a 50 basis point reduction in the coupon rate and also eliminated a historical 12 basis point credit spread adjustment currently.
The transaction yields about $16 million in cash savings, net of fees, over the remaining life of the debt. On our total debt stack, this lowers our weighted average cost of debt to about 7%. The fourth quarter marks our second closing period in first year end under our new engagement with Deloitte as our independent accounting firm. The partnership has been excellent in our audit, while compressed from a timeline perspective, was thorough and well executed.
In our 10-K, you will note that we have disclosed several deficiencies regarding IT general control gaps, which aggregate to a material weakness for 2023. It is important to note there were no errors in our current or past financial results as a result of these control findings. We've already identified a detailed path to correct these gaps and remediate this material weakness in 2024, and we will update you regularly on our progress.
Now let's turn to slide 15 for a discussion on 2024, which we expect will be another strong year for the company. We expect total revenue in the range of $865 million to $880 million, representing approximately 6 to 8% growth over 2023, consistent with the long-term outlook we shared at our Investor Day in July 2022. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $395 million to $405 million, representing approximately 8% growth at the midpoint over 2023. This represents an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 46% or about 50 basis points of margin expansion year over year.
In commercial looks or in commercial services, we expect high single digit revenue growth driven by increased TSA volume and product adoption. In addition, we are expecting increased FMC revenue at a growth rate in line with the overall CS business. Consistent with historical trends, first quarter is forecast to be our lowest revenue-generating quarter, followed by sequential revenue increases in the second and third quarters, followed then by a decline in the fourth quarter as the summer driving season comes to a close. As a reminder, all revenue in this segment is service revenue.
Government solutions is expected to generate the high end of mid-single digit total revenue growth, driven by the expansion of camera installations with existing customers and new customers awarded in fiscal year 2023. We expect annual product revenue in the TS segment to be comparable to 2023 levels. As we previously discussed, we are anticipating a planned increase in CapEx to support GS long-term growth, which I will elaborate on shortly.
Lastly, parking solutions revenue is expected to deliver mid single digit total revenue growth. The temporary reduction in revenue growth -- this temporary reduction in revenue growth is driven by strong demand in SaaS and services growth, offset by a reduction in onetime product sales as the industry transitions to a focus on software and mobile solutions.
As David mentioned, over the long term, we expect parking to return to high single digit growth as we execute our SaaS and transactional revenue growth strategies. For the company as a whole, we are guiding to a 2024 non-GAAP adjusted EPS range of $1.15 to $1.20 per share. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million, representing a conversion rate of about 40% of adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted free cash flow excludes the after tax plus past legal settlement, which was accrued in 2023 and will be paid in 2024.
The 40% free cash flow conversion rate is below our long-term guide due to our plan to spend an incremental $30 million to $35 million in 2024 CapEx. The vast majority of the CapEx will be spent in government solutions to enhance and consolidate our software platform and for revenue-generating cameras contingent on winning procurements during the year. We also anticipate spending about $4 million in corporate CapEx to upgrade our current ERP.
Lastly, based on the adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance and excluding capital allocation investments, we expect to reduce net leverage to about two times by year-end 2024. Other key assumptions supporting our adjusted EPS and adjusted free cash flow outlook can be found on slide 16.
In summary, we generated strong fourth quarter and full-year results and are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2024 outlook. We're operating in attractive end markets with strong secular tailwinds, and I believe we're making the right investments to continue to drive growth and margin expansion throughout company.
This concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and attention today. At this time, I'd like to invite Ena to open the line for any questions. Over to you Ena.
Question and Answer Session
Operator
(Operator instructions)
Keith Housum, Northcoast Research.
Keith Housum
Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for the opportunity for questions here. David, obviously, as you guys point out last year was a great year for positive legislation movements or traffic enforcement cameras. And I think last week you guys announced a town of Davie win. But is there any other big wins or significant wins in perhaps point us to get us a little bit more excited about next year?
David Roberts
Yeah, I mean, I think, David, a great sign of things to come. There are several large ones that are going to be RFPs here probably keeping the next, I'd call it, three to six months. We are positioned very, very well in terms of a lot of our current customers will be doing some of these RFPs as well as some potential new customers.
So the thing to remember that these things take a little -- post legislation, they tend to take a while to activate. You've heard some in different press releases and things like that. Those are sometimes much smaller deals that we may not even bid on, but we're really excited about the ones that are going to be coming out probably here again in the next three to five months.
Keith Housum
Great. Appreciate it. I know there some movement in the Board of Directors here over the past few weeks. I think Sarah Farrell rolled off, and I know Raj Ratnakar joined the Board. Help me understand a little bit more what Raj brings the Board and kind of complements what you guys are doing?
David Roberts
Yeah. I mean first, I got to thank Sarah. She was outstanding Board member and investor, really wish her the greatest success on what she's going to be doing. For Raj, as you know, we've for a long time, we've been moving our business toward a portfolio company model and the likes of some of the great like the Danaher and the Fortis of the world, which means we have great businesses connected by a common business system.
And we -- M&A is one of our capital deployment strategy to create value for shareholders. Raj, with his background, in particular as a leading M&A at places like Fortive, worked at Danaher, as well as at DuPont, just brings a real high level of expertise and insight into how we can think about that as we continue to grow our business. And we're so excited to have him, because we certainly see M&A as a part of our future. We think he's going to bring a lot to the table.
Keith Housum
Great, appreciate it. If I could just squeeze one more in here. Obviously, the first -- I heard Italy announcements, a nice win for you guys there. I guess any -- I know the European tolling as a slow roll. Are there perhaps any other developments you can point to see that might get again more excited about what's happening in Europe?
David Roberts
Yeah. I think Italy is actually the point of excitement. We don't have a sense yet, they probably haven't even sold as our transponders that have vehicles yet. So we'll get a sense of what the volume is going to be. But Italy is, as we mentioned, there is all sort of hinges on going into a cashless environment, and Italy and places like France were very barrier based and they're starting to make that transition, plus our relationship with Telepass. I think this is a good harbinger of things to come. Probably, don't have any specific insights on what that does to acceleration just yet, but I suspect we'll have something by mid-year to give you some more insight.
Keith Housum
Great. Thank you. Good luck.
David Roberts
Thank you.
Operator
Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.
Faiza Alwy
Yes, hi. Thank you so much. So first, I wanted to actually pick up on the M&A comments that you just made. It sounds like that's a big focus for the company. And certainly, you have some flexibility now. Could you just refresh us on how you're thinking about M&A? What we should expect in terms of the type of businesses that might fit in with Verra Mobility, just sort of what the vision is there?
David Roberts
Yeah, of course, and thanks for the question. So I mean, as we've always said, we look at -- first and foremost, we grow our business in the core businesses. So we have businesses that win and serve our customers there. We're then going to be looking at from an M&A perspective, we can attach to that looking at adjacent opportunities. So whether that's a similar product to a similar customer, sometimes that's geographic expansion, sometime that's buying a competitor potentially and then we look for platforms.
So the reality is it could be either of those two. But ultimately, we are -- as we've always said, we are a cash flow buyer. We are not taking bets or risks on non-cash flow generating activities or businesses rather. And so I would say that you would see them as you go back to Investor Day, we sort of articulated these two segments, one was connected vehicle as well as urban mobility. And so we that's a really broad and exciting category or two categories rather of where we can work in all the markets within there.
So we have a great team that's doing a lot of market work so we can understand what markets are best for us to operate in. Certainly, the activity this year has picked up significantly from the tail end of last year. And so we're super excited about what they can bring to us, but we're going to continue to maintain a very strict discipline in how we think about the businesses that we want to add to the portfolio.
Craig Conti
And I just add to that, I'd say that the only thing that's really changed on that is that the environment seems to be opening up, right. And again, I don't think that's a Verra Mobility specific comment. But there our capital allocation framework that we've talked about in the past is unchanged, right? So that next dollar out the door has to have the highest yield to shareholders against paying down debt, buying back shares, and potentially adding to the portfolio. I just think that we're going to be operating in a different environment in 2024 than we've seen in the recent past.
Faiza Alwy
Understood, thank you. And then wanted to talk about government services revenue. You mentioned some of the RFPs, including the New York City RFP. So just curious about like what's embedded in the mid-single digit growth guide? And if you can talk about the quarterly cadence of what you're expecting there, and maybe if I can just throw this one, just give us a bit more context on the charge that you took on that?
David Roberts
Yeah, sure. So let me let me start with the first one. So the and I think I'm going to repeat these slides and I make sure I've got it straight here. So the first one is what do we think about what's embedded in the mid single digit growth guide for government solutions.
And it's the very high end of mid-single digits and I will tell you if I bifurcate that into services and product, I don't guide on this specifically, but I think this warrants this level of detail. I think products are going to be flat at best. It could be a little bit in either direction. Given that, while the service revenue is probably at the very low end of the high single digit, when I combine those two together, I get the high end of mid-single digit for the overall business.
Okay. So if you look at the exit rate of growth on services in the fourth quarter for government solutions, I expect the rest of the year to look something like that. So the business is certainly not slowing down if anything, it's speeding up. But I do expect those products to be flat at best, which is bringing down the overall growth rate.
So that was the first one, and I'll stay on government solutions. I'll go to your third one next. So this was a $4 million non-cash charge on supply chain optimization. The easiest way to think about this without mentioning names on the open call here is we did have a supplier who's come into the attempt to be a competitor, right?
So some of the inventory that we've had, and we've used for years isn't going to be as usable as it once was and we had to go across our global inventory stocks and make the appropriate accounting adjustment for that. And that really happened here in the back half of 2023. So that's non-recurring $4 million, non-cash.
And then the final piece is the overall cadence for the company. So let's take GS set it aside, go back to total Verra Mobility. If you were to take the fourth quarter actuals, 2023 for Verra Mobility and sequentially look at how that's going to pace out by quarter, it's going to look something like this.
The first quarter of 2024, I expect to be down mid-single digits. I expect the second quarter against sequentially now from the first. The second quarter of 2024 to be up high single digits. I expect the third quarter to grow again, incrementally mid-single digits. And then I expect the fourth quarter to come back low single digits go down.
So it's that same trend for the company that we talked about, I would say, a year ago on the call. The differences we're seeing the summer driving season in the CS business start a little earlier in the second quarter than we probably did pre-COVID. So that's why the high single digit growth into the second quarter and then and down from there for forth.
Faiza Alwy
Perfect. And then just to clarify quickly like are you expecting, and should we expect sort of serve the revenue growth in Government Solutions do accelerate through the course of the year?
David Roberts
Not really. My comment was the exit rate that we saw in the back half of the year is going to be the growth rate I expect for the total year of 2024. So I have it in front of me, it's a little bit variable, but it's I would say, relatively even across the year, probably a little bit skewed to the back three quarters.
Faiza Alwy
Got it. Thank you so much.
David Roberts
You bet..
Operator
Daniel Moore, CJS Securities.
Daniel Moore
(multiple speakers)
Can hear me?
David Roberts
No, sorry, Dan, I think we lost the first part of your question. We just heard commercial services. You might start again first.
Daniel Moore
Okay, yeah, absolutely. Starting with comp services. Obviously, TSA volumes now fully recovered relative to pre pandemic. Maybe just talk about the kind of rank order the drivers that you laid out, David, embedded in the high single digit growth expectation for this year between toll roads, miles driven, shift to cashless, kind of what are the biggest drivers there?
Craig Conti
Yeah, sure. Dan, this is Craig. I'll take a shot at that one. So if we want to break down that high single digit growth in 2024, I would do it in three buckets. Roughly, half of that growth is coming from secular tailwinds. And those secular tailwinds, they are toll roads, more toll roads than there were in the past, more cashless roads. We're only at 67% penetration here at the end of 2023. So certainly, more to go there. And then, of course, the additional penetration of the all-inclusive product through Hertz and ABG.
So again, out of the high single digit, about half of it is in that bucket. About 25% of that high single digit is in TSA growth. We expect that growth as a total year 2024 versus 2023 to be about 1.5% to 2%. And then the remaining 25% of the growth in that high single digit is from our growth initiatives, that's growth in Europe and growth in FFCs.
Daniel Moore
Perfect, very helpful. And then just going back to the enabling legislation opportunities in government solutions, any additional color on potential timing? You mentioned Pennsylvania, I think you said it could be an initial $50 million TAM. What is the kind of timeframe are you looking at and what would cause that to increase to the $100 million that you called out in your prepared remarks?
David Roberts
Yeah, sorry, Dan. That might have been slightly worse. It was that 50 -- that is sort of all the combined legislation that we did across all the states last year.
Daniel Moore
Got it.
David Roberts
Yeah. So but regardless, the way to think about timing is for the ones that we did do last year, you'll start usually it's about a year, meaning the legislature passed a law gets signed off by the Governor and then there's sort of some nuances that are adapted to each state and then RFPs start going. So I think what we'll start to see is more discussion about that in the back half of this year, probably some wins, maybe even as early as Q3, Q4.
Daniel Moore
Perfect. And then if you gave it and I missed it. I apologize. But just the interest expense post the refinancing that's embedded in your '24 EPS guide, if we plug in 7%, is that the right way to think about it Craig ?
Craig Conti
Probably yes, if I'm thinking about a problem to have, but I'll give you the number and you can calculate it. The P&L expense is going to be $80 million. The cash number is going to $75 million, Dan, the delta between the cash and the P&L number is the amortization of original issue discount. So on the P&L going into adjusted EPS $80 million, cash expense will be $75 million, and that $75 million should put out your 7% .
Daniel Moore
Very good. I'll circle back with follow-ups. Thank you.
Craig Conti
Thank you.
David Roberts
Thank you.
Operator
(Operator instructions)
Louie DiPalma, William Blair.
Louie DiPalma
David, Craig, and Mark, good afternoon.
David Roberts
Hey Louie.
Louie DiPalma
For David, was there a trial for the effort's Italy tolling service or is Hertz Italy starting directly with a commercial implementation?
David Roberts
So they are going to do a commercial implementation. Might I suspect that they will start. It wasn't a trial to then decide they've already decided, but they'll probably start with the pilot. I mean, I would almost bet.
Louie DiPalma
Okay, great. And are you able to provide an update, the status of your other trials in Europe? And is there any potential on those trials move forward to commercial implementations?
David Roberts
Yeah. I mean, some of them actually have. I think we're starting to see a broader base in Spain, and we continue to work in Ireland. But most of them have not been -- our Ireland, obviously not a very big country nor a very big tolling opportunity, but we have had some traction there.
So what I would say is that we want to get more, France and Italy are really the ones we wanted to get that as they move to cashless, that's going to be our bigger opportunity. This starting kind of thawing in Italy is a great sign for things to come. It's hard to pace it. So as I mentioned on a question, but that's probably a midyear understanding of where that might lead to.
Louie DiPalma
Great. I think on one of your slides, you mentioned how the cashless tolling penetration in the United States is now 67%, and that's up from I think, 64%, two years ago when you showed the slide at your Analyst Day. But what does the different penetrations look like in these different countries in Europe that you're targeting and like for instance, in Italy, like do you have any estimate on like what the penetration is there?
David Roberts
Yeah, Louie, that penetration is US, that's the US market.
Craig Conti
France and Italy are --
David Roberts
They are fairly low, Louise, maybe less than 5%.
Craig Conti
Yes, for France, less than 5%.
Louie DiPalma
And I guess is it still possible for like the Hertz Italy, like, commercial implementation to be successful if the penetration is so low? Like, what penetration does Europe need to get to for like rent-a-car tolling services to become attractive for rental car providers to implement?
David Roberts
Yeah. Obviously, I mean, we still work in a cash -- we are still work in a environment, they can follow or they could still provide value to the consumers. I think overall, it really depends on where it -- it kind of where are the cashless lanes. And this is me guessing, I don't know the total structure of Italy off the top of my head. But if it they're outside of Rome, and that's still can be a good opportunity, I suspect where they're thinking about it. If it elsewhere that it won't make as much of a difference. So I don't have a percentage that I could give you to say that's the most valuable like or what percentage is that ought to be.
But I think the key notion is that last year, France started to convert some cash-based tolling to a cashless. The fact that Hertz is launching in Italy it to solve a problem for them there. And those are the markers of pacings are starting to go our way a little bit more. So again, it's not going to be material in the years, but it will be something that will be an update I think, in the mid year in terms of our progress.
Louie DiPalma
Great. One more question. I think, you mentioned how on the the government systems camera side, one of your suppliers is trying to become a competitor. In general, have you seen like increase competitive activity associated with all of the new legislation like across Florida, California, and Pennsylvania? And like, in general, does like Verra expect to maintain it like roughly 70% market share?
David Roberts
Yeah, we certainly do. I mean, look, we you would anticipate with the growth opportunity here that other companies are going to trying to rally to the cause and trying to win some. And they will, I mean, especially in smaller cities where we may not be as competitive, but we certainly are in the larger mandates. So we've positioned our self very well in Florida, very well in California, but we would certainly anticipate to maintain our position in the market clearly.
Louie DiPalma
Thanks, David. Thanks, everyone.
David Roberts
Yeah, thank you Louie.
Operator
David Koning, Baird. Please go.
David Koning
Yeah, hey, guys. Nice job on back in. Yeah. I guess my first question, guidance calls for about 50 bps of margin expansion, which is nice expansion here. Is that going to be pretty consistent by segment and maybe you can walk through, and maybe what the puts and takes would be by segment across margins?
David Roberts
Yeah, in general, it will be consistent across the across the segments. I think CS will be on the higher end of that Q2 really close to that and GS a little bit lower than that. But all segments are anticipated to global business, about 60 basis points being ceiling.
David Koning
Yeah, got you. Okay. And then the one other thing I noticed in the press release that the PlusPass is that you're going to get included that you're going to acquire some assets from them. And I guess maybe you did that in February, but how much revenue might come from that acquisition. And I mean, I assume it's pretty small. Maybe you could just walk through maybe how much you paid for it, how much revenue might come from it, et cetera?
David Roberts
Well, again, it's all part of the integration elements that are part of that. But it's mostly IT related assets that we acquired as a part of it, not a customer asset.
David Koning
Those are pre-revenue asset?
Craig Conti
Yeah. Those are pre-revenue.
David Koning
Got you, that totally makes sense. Well, great. Thanks, guys.
Craig Conti
Okay, thank you.
Operator
(Operator instructions)
There are no further question at this time. That ends our question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect.
David Roberts
Thank you.
Craig Conti
Thank you.
