The Reject Shop Limited (ASX:TRS) Shares Could Be 26% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights
The projected fair value for Reject Shop is AU$4.52 based on Dividend Discount Model
Current share price of AU$5.70 suggests Reject Shop is potentially 26% overvalued
The AU$6.36 analyst price target for TRS is 41% more than our estimate of fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of The Reject Shop Limited (ASX:TRS) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
View our latest analysis for Reject Shop
The Model
As Reject Shop operates in the multiline retail sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%. Relative to the current share price of AU$5.7, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= AU$0.3 / (7.7% – 2.0%)
= AU$4.5
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Reject Shop as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.133. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Reject Shop
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Currently debt free.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Multiline Retail market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Reject Shop, we've compiled three pertinent elements you should assess:
Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Reject Shop , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for TRS's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
