Results: American Woodmark Corporation Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$422m, some 3.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$1.32, 39% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for American Woodmark
Following last week's earnings report, American Woodmark's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.85b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 12% to US$8.46. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.43 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 6.5% to US$102despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of American Woodmark's earnings by assigning a price premium. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic American Woodmark analyst has a price target of US$122 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$88.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.3% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that American Woodmark's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Woodmark going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for American Woodmark that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
