Results: Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (NYSE:BVH) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.2% to hit US$261m. Bluegreen Vacations Holding also reported a statutory profit of US$1.34, which was an impressive 32% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Bluegreen Vacations Holding
After the latest results, the consensus from Bluegreen Vacations Holding's dual analysts is for revenues of US$957.6m in 2023, which would reflect a small 3.2% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 13% to US$4.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$963.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.80 in 2023. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$49.50, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bluegreen Vacations Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.4% annualised decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bluegreen Vacations Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Bluegreen Vacations Holding following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$49.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Bluegreen Vacations Holding going out as far as 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Bluegreen Vacations Holding (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
