Results: The Pebble Group plc Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Investors in The Pebble Group plc (LON:PEBB) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.8% to close at UK£0.65 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of UK£124m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Pebble Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of UK£0.035 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Pebble Group
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Pebble Group's four analysts is for revenues of UK£127.0m in 2024. This would reflect a modest 2.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 5.7% to UK£0.033 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£126.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.032 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 16% to UK£1.35, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Pebble Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£1.65 and the most bearish at UK£0.90 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Pebble Group shareholders.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Pebble Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Pebble Group.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Pebble Group's future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Pebble Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Pebble Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
