Results: SilverCrest Metals Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
It's been a pretty great week for SilverCrest Metals Inc. (TSE:SIL) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to CA$8.74 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues US$245m disappointed slightly, at2.7% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of US$0.81 coming in 12% above what was anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on SilverCrest Metals after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for SilverCrest Metals
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering SilverCrest Metals, is for revenues of US$233.1m in 2024. This implies a measurable 4.9% reduction in SilverCrest Metals' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 47% to US$0.42 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$224.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on SilverCrest Metals after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.
There's been no major changes to the price target of CA$8.86, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on SilverCrest Metals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$9.50 and the most bearish at CA$7.25 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting SilverCrest Metals is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.9% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 95% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - SilverCrest Metals is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for SilverCrest Metals. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$8.86, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for SilverCrest Metals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that SilverCrest Metals is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
