Revenue Downgrade: Here's What Analysts Forecast For HOOKIPA Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOK)
Market forces rained on the parade of HOOKIPA Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOK) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about HOOKIPA Pharma recently, with the stock price up a noteworthy 20% to US$1.86 in the past week. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.
Following the latest downgrade, the six analysts covering HOOKIPA Pharma provided consensus estimates of US$15m revenue in 2023, which would reflect a measurable 3.5% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of US$18m in 2023. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on HOOKIPA Pharma, given the measurable cut to revenue estimates.
See our latest analysis for HOOKIPA Pharma
There was no particular change to the consensus price target of US$4.64, with HOOKIPA Pharma's latest outlook seemingly not enough to result in a change of valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on HOOKIPA Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$8.00 and the most bearish at US$0.50 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2023 compared to the historical decline of 8.3% per annum over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 19% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately HOOKIPA Pharma is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on HOOKIPA Pharma after today.
But wait - there's more! We have estimates for HOOKIPA Pharma from its six analysts out until 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here
