Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 15, 2024
Royal Gold, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Royal Gold, Inc. 2023 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Conference Call. My name is Emily, and I'll be facilitating your call today. After the presentation, there will be the opportunity for any questions. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to our host, Alistair Baker, Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. Please go ahead, Alistair.
Alistair Baker: Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our discussion of Royal Gold's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. This event is being webcast live, and you will be able to access a replay of this call on our website. Speaking on the call today are Bill Heissenbuttel, President and CEO; Martin Raffield, Vice President of Operations; and Paul Libner, CFO and Treasurer. Randy Shefman, General Counsel; and Dan Breeze, Vice President, Corporate Development of RG AG are also available for questions. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements about our projections and expectations for the future. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements.
These risks and uncertainties are discussed in yesterday's press release and our filings with the SEC. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income, adjusted net income per share, cash G&A, adjusted EBITDA and net debt. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in yesterday's press release, which can be found on our website. Bill will start with an overview of 2023 results, Martin will give some commentary on the portfolio, and Paul will wrap up with a financial summary of the quarter. After the formal remarks, we'll open the lines for a Q&A session.
Bill Heissenbuttel: Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. I'll begin on slide 4. During 2023, we delivered revenue of $606 million, operating cash flow of $416 million and earnings of $239 million or $3.63 per share and after adjustments earnings were $3.53 per share. Our gold equivalent ounces or GEOs were slightly below our guidance range, as we indicated might occur during our third quarter conference call. And Martin will give you some more details a bit later. While inflation pressures have eased from their peak, operating companies are still seeing cost inflation and margin erosion. Without direct exposure to operating and capital costs, we are protected from inflation pressure and margin compression, and we maintained our strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 79%.
We paid approximately $100 million in dividends and keeping with our commitment to return capital to shareholders, and we raised our dividend again by 7%. This is the 23rd consecutive annual increase to our dividend, which is an unmatched record in the precious metals sector. We also maintained our focus on the balance sheet and repaid $325 million outstanding on a revolving credit facility during the year. After an active year of acquisitions in 2022, we started the year with a revolver balance of $575 million. And we've quickly reduced that to $250 million, increasing our total available liquidity at the end of the year to about $845 million. This is in keeping with our capital allocation strategy to use non-dilutive financing to acquire high-quality assets.
And we maintained our low share count during the year to ensure that shareholders have full exposure to our growth. Finally, we announced an agreement yesterday with Centerra to provide future cost support to the Mount Milligan mine that will allow an extension of the mine life to 2035 and potentially further into the future. The details are in our press release, but in summary, we will receive cash and gold consideration in the near and medium-term with a value of approximately $125 million at the current gold price and a longer-term free cash flow interest in Mount Milligan. In return, we'll make additional cash payments for gold and copper delivered, with any support provided prior to approximately 2030, contingent upon gold and copper prices being below $1,600 per ounce and $3.50 per pound, respectively.
These earlier payments are also subject to potential recovery against cost support payments made beyond 2030, when metal prices permit. This is a good development for both Royal Gold and Centerra, as it should allow for further value to be realized through mine life extension. Mount Milligan has a large resource base and exploration potential, and Centerra's plans include: completing a preliminary economic assessment in the first half of 2025 to evaluate resources and projects that could provide further mine life extensions; continuing exploration drilling around the mine; and completing a site optimization program to improve cash flow. Royal Gold will benefit from getting further exposure to metal prices over an extended mine life, and we are pleased to provide support to Centerra, as they review this potential.
I'll now turn the call over to Martin to provide some comments on the portfolio.
Martin Raffield: Thanks, Bill. Turning to Slide 5, I'll cover portfolio performance over the year compared to the guidance that we gave in April 2023. Overall, the portfolio performance was solid for the year. However, as Bill mentioned, total sales of 315,600 GEOs with slightly below our 2023 guidance of 320,000 to 345,000 GEOs. This was due to underperformance at two of our principal properties, both of which we have discussed on our last earnings call. The first was Peñasquito, where there was an unexpected four-month labor strike, and the second was the slower-than-anticipated ramp-up of the plant expansion of Pueblo Viejo. Our DD&A and tax rates were in line with guidance, and Paul will go into more detail on these items in his comments.
Turning to Slide 6, I'll give some comments on fourth quarter revenue. Overall revenue for the quarter was $153 million with volume of 77,500 GEOs. Our Royalty segment contributed revenue of $54 million, in line with the prior year quarter. However, as a percentage of total revenue, the Royalty segment was a larger contributor than in the recent past at about 36% of total revenue. Revenue from our Stream segment was lower compared to last year at $98 million. Lower contributions from Mount Milligan and Pueblo Viejo were only partially offset by higher revenue from Andacollo, Xavantina and Rainy River. I'll turn to Slide 7 and give some comments on notable developments at a handful of operations. At Mount Milligan, as Bill mentioned, Centerra reported an increase to the mine life to 2035, with the potential for work underway to increase this further.
Centerra also provided 2024 production guidance of 180,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold and 55 million to 65 million pounds of copper. Centerra expects this production to be evenly weighted throughout the year. At Pueblo Viejo, reported yesterday that construction and commissioning of the plant expansion was substantially complete at the end of December, and they have resolved the equipment issues they were dealing with in the second half of the year. They are working on rebuilding the crush or stockpile feed conveyor and are targeting completion of this work in the second quarter, which is required for the plant to reach full throughput. Our stream is based on Barrick's share of production at PV, and Barrick is guiding to gold production of 420,000 to 490,000 ounces in 2024.
Approximately 165,000 ounces of silver were deferred during the quarter, and the total deferred amount was 854,000 ounces at the end of December. In yesterday's report, Barrick commented that the focus for the first quarter will be the continued stability and optimization of the flotation circuit, which we expect should result in higher and more consistent silver recovery. This optimization work will likely take some time, and the recovery of our deferred silver ounces will depend on the outcome of this work. At Cortez, Barrick announced in mid-December that the record of decision was received for Goldrush, and they expect to ramp up production from 130,000 ounces this year to about 400,000 ounces per year in 2028. They also announced 2024 guidance for Cortez yesterday of 620,000 to 680,000 ounces, which includes the contribution from Goldrush.
This guidance is significantly lower than the 2023 production at Cortez, and according to Barrick as it relates to grade reconciliation and resource model changes at crossroads that will reduce oxide mill feed. Our overlapping royalty interest at crossroads result in an effective gross royalty rate of approximately 9.4%, so the impact of lower production at Crossroads has a disproportionately larger impact on Royal Gold. We are reviewing Barrick's forecast and will detail the impact to Royal Gold when we issue our full year guidance. Turning to slide 8. At Andacollo, tech has reported that drought conditions are impacting production levels, and this is expected to continue while a solution is put in place in 2025. In the meantime, we're expecting production levels this year to remain in line with 2023 and then increase in 2025 through 2027 with the benefit of higher grades.
At Khoemacau, operations are continuing at full production levels. Khoemacau is a high-quality operation, and we are pleased that M&G, a well-capitalized and experienced operator, will become the new owner after completing the acquisition, which is expected during the current quarter. We have spoken with MMG, and at this point, we don't expect any significant changes to the operating approach put in place by KCM. And finally, we are pleased to see continued progress towards full production at King of the Hills and Bellevue mines in Western Australia. We expect to see first production from Cote Gold in Ontario and Mara Rosin in Brazil in the current quarter and Mancho in Alaska in the second half of the year. I'll now turn the call over to Paul for a review of our financial results.
Paul Libner: Thanks, Martin. I'll now turn to slide 9 and give an overview of the financial results for the quarter. For this discussion, I'll be comparing the quarter ended December 31, 2023, to the prior year quarter. Revenue was down 6% to $153 million for the quarter. As Martin mentioned in his remarks, lower contributions from Mount Milligan, Pueblo Viejo, and Peñasquito were the main drivers for this quarter's lower revenue. The lower contribution from these properties were partially offset by higher contributions from Cortez and Andacollo as well as higher average metal prices. Gold and silver prices were significantly higher, up 14% and 10%, respectively, and the price of copper was up 2%. Gold continues to be the dominant revenue source, making up 80% of our total revenue for the quarter, followed by silver at 10% and copper at 8%.
At 80%, Royal Gold has the highest gold revenue percentage compared to our major peers in the royalty and streaming sector. Turning to slide 10, I'll provide a bit more detail on specific line items for the quarter, which was another straightforward and quiet quarter for Royal Gold. G&A expense increased slightly to $9.7 million from $8.8 million in the prior year and was due to higher corporate costs and non-cash stock compensation expense. Although, we did see an increase over the prior year, our cash G&A costs remained low at about 5% of total revenue. Our DD&A expense decreased to $40 million from $49 million in the prior year. On a unit basis, this expense was $518 per GEO for the quarter compared to $521 per GEO in the prior year. The lower overall DD&A expense was due to a lower depletion rate at Pueblo Viejo, as well as decreased sales from Mount Milligan and Pueblo Viejo when compared to the prior year.
For the full year, DD&A of $529 per GEO was in line with our earlier guidance range of $490 to $540 per GEO. Interest expense was $6 million for the quarter, in line with $6.1 million in the prior year. The all-in interest rate for outstanding borrowings under our credit facility was 6.6% at the end of the fourth quarter. Tax expense for the quarter was $13.4 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of 17.5%. This compares to a similar tax expense of $12.6 million and an effective tax rate of 18.2% in the prior year. For the full year, tax expense was $42 million and the effective tax rate was 14.9%. Our full year tax expense and effective tax rate benefited from a previously disclosed discrete tax event during the June quarter and related to the release of a valuation allowance on certain foreign deferred tax assets.
Excluding this discrete item, the effective tax rate for the full year was 17.9%, which was in line with our guidance rate of 17% to 22%. Net income for the quarter was up 11% over the prior year to $63 million or $0.95 per share. The increase in net income was primarily attributable to the lower cost of sales and DD&A expense, along with the $4 million impairment we recognized in the prior year on a non-principal exploration stage royalty interest. Each of these were partially offset by a decrease in our revenue as I previously mentioned. Our operating cash flow was strong again this quarter at $101 million and in line with the prior year. We expect to provide full year guidance for 2024 early in the second quarter after most of our counterparties have issued their own production guidance for the year.
However, to help you prepare your March quarter estimates, we expect our Stream segment sales to range between 47,000 and 52,000 GEOs during the first quarter of 2024. As with our prior practice, this is the only quarter during the year when we will give quarterly guidance, and this quarterly guidance should not be viewed as indicative of the full year guidance we intend to provide early in the second quarter. I will now turn to slide 11 and provide a summary of our financial position at the end of the quarter. During the quarter, we repaid $75 million on our revolving credit facility and reduced the amount drawn to $250 million. As Bill mentioned, our strong cash flow during 2023 allowed us to repay $325 million on our revolver balance during the year.
With respect to leverage ratios, we ended 2022 with a one-time net debt-to-EBITDA ratio. And by the end of 2023, this ratio was down to 0.3 times. This is a remarkable change in a short period and speaks to the cash flow generation of our portfolio and reinforces our overall capital allocation strategy, which also emphasizes a focus on the balance sheet. Absent significant business development activity and as cash flow allows, we expect to fully repay the remaining revolver balance by sometime early in the second half of 2024. We ended the year in a very strong financial position with total available liquidity of approximately $845 million, made up of $750 million of undrawn revolver capacity and $95 million of working capital. Finally, I'll also mention that upon completion of the acquisition of Khoemacau by MMG, we expect repayment of the subordinated debt facility we provided to KCM as part of the overall development of the Khoemacau mine.
At the end of December, the total amount outstanding, including capitalized interest, was approximately $36 million. That concludes my comments on our financial performance for the quarter, and I will now turn the call back to Bill for closing comments.
Bill Heissenbuttel: Thanks, Paul. 2023 was another year of consistent and solid performance from Royal Gold. We maintained alignment with our strategic goals of keeping a disciplined focus on gold, strengthening our balance sheet and increasing our capital return. We had a very active year of adding assets to the portfolio in 2022. And during 2023, we took advantage of our strong cash flow to pay down the debt used to finance those transactions as well as continue our long record of increasing our dividend. Our balance sheet is in great shape, and we have excellent liquidity to compete and take advantage of business development opportunities that may present themselves. We expect to provide full year guidance for 2024 early in the second quarter, which will reflect the lower production at Cortez and smaller organic growth assets that we have previously discussed like King of the Hills, Bellevue, Côté, Mara Rosa, and Manh Choh.
We also expect to publish an asset handbook early in the second quarter, and we plan to host an in-person session to give a more fulsome update on the portfolio around the same time. Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now open the line for questions.
Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jackie Przybylowski with BMO Capital Markets. Jackie, please go ahead.
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