Shareholders in Aris Mining (TSE:ARIS) are in the red if they invested three years ago
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Aris Mining Corporation (TSE:ARIS) shareholders, since the share price is down 51% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 44%. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 18% in a month. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
View our latest analysis for Aris Mining
Aris Mining wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Aris Mining saw its revenue grow by 4.9% per year, compound. Given it's losing money in pursuit of growth, we are not really impressed with that. It's likely this weak growth has contributed to an annualised return of 15% for the last three years. It can be well worth keeping an eye on growth stocks that disappoint the market, because sometimes they re-accelerate. After all, growing a business isn't easy, and the process will not always be smooth.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Aris Mining stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Dividend Lost
It's important to keep in mind that we've been talking about the share price returns, which don't include dividends, while the total shareholder return does. Many would argue the TSR gives a more complete picture of the value a stock brings to its holders. Over the last 3 years, Aris Mining generated a TSR of -47%, which is, of course, better than the share price return. Although the company had to cut dividends, it has paid cash to shareholders in the past.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Aris Mining shareholders are down 19% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 2.9%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.8% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Aris Mining better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Aris Mining that you should be aware of.
Aris Mining is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here
