Shareholders in Carindale Property Trust (ASX:CDP) are in the red if they invested three years ago
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Carindale Property Trust (ASX:CDP) shareholders, since the share price is down 40% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 49%.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Carindale Property Trust
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Carindale Property Trust moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
We note that the dividend has declined - a likely contributor to the share price drop. This situation was no doubt compounded by the fact revenue is down 3.7% per year over three years.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Carindale Property Trust has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Carindale Property Trust
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Carindale Property Trust, it has a TSR of -31% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Carindale Property Trust's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 18%. The silver lining is that the share price is up in the short term, which flies in the face of the annualised loss of 4% over the last five years. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for Carindale Property Trust. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Carindale Property Trust (2 are concerning) that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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