Is Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) Worth US$69.5 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Southern Copper fair value estimate is US$52.15

• Southern Copper's US$69.49 share price signals that it might be 33% overvalued

• The US$62.45 analyst price target for SCCO is 20% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Southern Copper

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$2.18b	US$2.58b	US$3.26b	US$3.19b	US$3.16b	US$3.16b	US$3.18b	US$3.22b	US$3.26b	US$3.32b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Est @ -0.85%	Est @ 0.04%	Est @ 0.66%	Est @ 1.09%	Est @ 1.40%	Est @ 1.61%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.9%	US$2.0k	US$2.2k	US$2.5k	US$2.3k	US$2.1k	US$1.9k	US$1.7k	US$1.6k	US$1.5k	US$1.4k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$19b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.3b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (8.9%– 2.1%) = US$50b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$50b÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)¹⁰= US$21b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$40b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$69.5, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Southern Copper as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.148. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Southern Copper

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.

• Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Southern Copper, we've compiled three additional aspects you should explore:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for Southern Copper (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

2. Future Earnings: How does SCCO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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