Strong week for Aerie Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AERI) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of three-year loss
It's nice to see the Aerie Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AERI) share price up 18% in a week. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. To wit, the share price sky-dived 76% in that time. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. Of course the real question is whether the business can sustain a turnaround.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
View our latest analysis for Aerie Pharmaceuticals
Aerie Pharmaceuticals isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Aerie Pharmaceuticals saw its revenue grow by 53% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So why has the share priced crashed 21% per year, in the same time? You'd want to take a close look at the balance sheet, as well as the losses. Sometimes fast revenue growth doesn't lead to profits. If the company is low on cash, it may have to raise capital soon.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Aerie Pharmaceuticals is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
Aerie Pharmaceuticals shareholders gained a total return of 12% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 11% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Aerie Pharmaceuticals (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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