SVB Sees De-Risked Opportunity For This Newly Listed Norovirus Vaccine

Vandana Singh
1 min read
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In this article:

  • SVB Leerink is initiating coverage of HilleVax Inc (NASDAQ: HLVX) shares with an Outperform rating and a $30 price target.

  • The analyst believes the company’s potentially first-in-class infant norovirus vaccine HIL214 represents a uniquely de-risked opportunity.

  • It estimates $625 million in risk-adjusted infant HIL214 sales in 2030E ($1 billion unadjusted).

  • The outlook is supported by the pediatric rotavirus vaccine analog (2021 global sales of Rotateq and Rotarix combined were $1.6 billion).

  • The company also plans to study HIL214 in older adults, which could represent a second blockbuster indication.

  • SVB also noted that HLVX shares had traded down -41% post IPO vs. -5% for the XBI, likely due to market dislocation.

  • It believes this provides an attractive entry point for investors as HLVX’s $380 million market cap appears heavily discounted vs. its $1.2 billion discounted cash flow-based valuation.

  • SVB expects infant Phase 2b safety data in 2H22, immunogenicity data in 1H23, and top-line efficacy data in 2H23.

  • Concurrently, Guggenheim initiated coverage on HilleVax with a Buy rating and a price target of $40. JP Morgan initiated coverage on HilleVax with an Overweight rating and a price target of $24.

  • Price Action: HLVX shares are up 8.68% at $10.33 during the market session on the last check Tuesday.

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