Is Ten Entertainment Group plc (LON:TEG) Trading At A 44% Discount?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Ten Entertainment Group fair value estimate is UK£5.39

• Ten Entertainment Group's UK£3.01 share price signals that it might be 44% undervalued

• Analyst price target for TEG is UK£3.97 which is 26% below our fair value estimate

How far off is Ten Entertainment Group plc (LON:TEG) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Ten Entertainment Group

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£24.7m	UK£31.2m	UK£34.2m	UK£36.6m	UK£38.6m	UK£40.2m	UK£41.6m	UK£42.8m	UK£43.9m	UK£44.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Est @ 9.57%	Est @ 7.15%	Est @ 5.46%	Est @ 4.28%	Est @ 3.45%	Est @ 2.87%	Est @ 2.47%	Est @ 2.18%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	UK£22.2	UK£25.2	UK£24.8	UK£23.8	UK£22.6	UK£21.2	UK£19.7	UK£18.2	UK£16.7	UK£15.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£210m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£45m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (11%– 1.5%) = UK£465m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£465m÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= UK£159m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£369m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£3.0, the company appears quite good value at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ten Entertainment Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.656. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Ten Entertainment Group

Strength

• Currently debt free.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.

Opportunity

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Ten Entertainment Group, we've put together three additional items you should further research:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Ten Entertainment Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does TEG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.