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Is TFII Stock A Buy or Sell?

·5 min read

We at Insider Monkey have gone over 866 13F filings that hedge funds and prominent investors are required to file by the SEC. The 13F filings show the funds' and investors' portfolio positions as of March 31st. In this article, we look at what those funds think of TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) based on that data.

Is TFII stock a buy or sell? TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) was in 19 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the first quarter of 2021. The all time high for this statistic was previously 13. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. TFII shareholders have witnessed an increase in activity from the world's largest hedge funds of late. There were 10 hedge funds in our database with TFII holdings at the end of December. Our calculations also showed that TFII isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (click for Q1 rankings).

Why do we pay any attention at all to hedge fund sentiment? Our research has shown that a select group of hedge fund holdings outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by 115 percentage points since March 2017 (see the details here). That's why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.

MOORE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS
MOORE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS

Louis Bacon Moore of Moore Capital

At Insider Monkey, we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. For example, Chuck Schumer recently stated that marijuana legalization will be a Senate priority. So, we are checking out this under the radar stock that will benefit from this. We go through lists like the 10 best battery stocks to pick the next Tesla that will deliver a 10x return. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. You can subscribe to our free daily newsletter on our homepage. With all of this in mind we're going to go over the recent hedge fund action regarding TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII).

Do Hedge Funds Think TFII Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?

At the end of March, a total of 19 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of 90% from one quarter earlier. The graph below displays the number of hedge funds with bullish position in TFII over the last 23 quarters. So, let's see which hedge funds were among the top holders of the stock and which hedge funds were making big moves.

Is TFII A Good Stock To Buy?
Is TFII A Good Stock To Buy?

More specifically, Scopus Asset Management was the largest shareholder of TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII), with a stake worth $34.4 million reported as of the end of March. Trailing Scopus Asset Management was Millennium Management, which amassed a stake valued at $28.6 million. Moore Global Investments, Maple Rock Capital, and Two Sigma Advisors were also very fond of the stock, becoming one of the largest hedge fund holders of the company. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Hill City Capital allocated the biggest weight to TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII), around 3.33% of its 13F portfolio. Maple Rock Capital is also relatively very bullish on the stock, earmarking 1.96 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to TFII.

Consequently, key hedge funds were leading the bulls' herd. Moore Global Investments, managed by Louis Bacon, established the most outsized position in TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII). Moore Global Investments had $15.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Len Kipp and Xavier Majic's Maple Rock Capital also initiated a $13.5 million position during the quarter. The other funds with new positions in the stock are Herbert Frazier's Hill City Capital, Robert Bishop's Impala Asset Management, and Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group.

Let's also examine hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII). We will take a look at Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (NYSE:CFR), ADT Inc. (NYSE:ADT), Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (NYSE:AXTA), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ARWR), Redfin Corporation (NASDAQ:RDFN), Hanesbrands Inc. (NYSE:HBI), and Ballard Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDP). This group of stocks' market valuations resemble TFII's market valuation.

[table] Ticker, No of HFs with positions, Total Value of HF Positions (x1000), Change in HF Position CFR,11,18887,-6 ADT,16,283810,-8 AXTA,43,1563342,-3 ARWR,20,151598,-4 RDFN,18,434551,-3 HBI,32,977516,5 BLDP,18,125641,-2 Average,22.6,507906,-3 [/table]

View table here if you experience formatting issues.

As you can see these stocks had an average of 22.6 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $508 million. That figure was $164 million in TFII's case. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (NYSE:AXTA) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (NYSE:CFR) is the least popular one with only 11 bullish hedge fund positions. TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) is not the least popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still below average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for TFII is 52.5. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 5 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 23.8% in 2021 through July 16th and still beat the market by 7.7 percentage points. A small number of hedge funds were also right about betting on TFII as the stock returned 30.6% since the end of the first quarter (through 7/16) and outperformed the market by an even larger margin.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.