Those who invested in Serko (NZSE:SKO) five years ago are up 42%
Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, the Serko Limited (NZSE:SKO) share price is up 42% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 4.8% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 1.3% in the last year.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Serko
Serko isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
For the last half decade, Serko can boast revenue growth at a rate of 7.5% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. While the share price has beat the market, compounding at 7% yearly, over five years, there's certainly some potential that the market hasn't fully considered the growth track record. The key question is whether revenue growth will slow down, and if so, how quickly. Lack of earnings means you have to project further into the future justify the valuation on the basis of future free cash flow.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Serko's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
A Different Perspective
Serko provided a TSR of 1.3% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 7% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Serko (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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