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Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Tilly's, Inc. (NYSE:TLYS) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 52%. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 20%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 9.7% in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 26% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 19% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Even though the Tilly's share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Tilly's managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Tilly's has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Tilly's
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Tilly's' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Tilly's hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -46% exceeds its share price return of -52%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Tilly's shareholders are down 46% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 20%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 2% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Tilly's is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those can't be ignored...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.