These top 5 housing markets are expected to crash first — do you live in one of these fast-growing cities?
Home prices have soared over the past decade thanks to an acute shortage of available homes, years of ultra-low mortgage rates and burgeoning demand for homes fueled by the economic recovery after the Great Recession and the lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic.
That’s left home prices much higher than they should be in the long term — by about 15%, according to mortgage giant Fannie Mae.
But that bubble may burst should the U.S. enter a recession in the near future. And certain especially hot markets will be impacted more than the rest of the country, according to the results of a new survey from Consumer Affairs.
Except those markets may not be the ones you’d think.
If you call one of these five cities home, you might want to prepare for your home’s value to take a tumble in the year ahead.
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Austin, Texas
According to Consumer Affairs’ poll, of the 50 most populated cities in the country, 33% of survey respondents believe Austin will be the first American market to crash.
As of 2021, the city’s population was 964,177, with a median resident age of about 34 years old. The estimated pre-pandemic household income was $46,217, and per capita income was estimated at $54,414.
The median home price on listings in Austin for July was $650,000 at $364 per square foot, up 18.2% year over year. But homes have been selling at nearly double that amount, with the median home sale price at $1.3 million, with homes being picked up after a median 41 days on the market.
A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $552,500 — a drop of $97,500.
Atlanta
Atlanta takes the runner-up prize for the most likely city to see a housing crash, with 26% of respondents expecting its prices to fall shortly.
Georgia’s State Capitol was home to 496,461 people as of 2021, with a median resident age of 33 years old. The estimated pre-pandemic household income was $66,657, and median household income as of 2020 was $64,179.
As of July, the median listing home price in Atlanta was $435,000 at $267 per square foot, up 8.7% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $395,000, with homes selling after a median 40 days on the market.
A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $369,750 — a drop of $65,250.
Bakersfield, California
Nearly a quarter of survey respondents are preparing for a tumble in housing prices in Bakersfield.
Known as “Nashville West,” this country music mecca had 407,615 residents as of 2021, with a median age of 31 years old. The average household income as of 2020 was $65,687 — but per capita between 2019 and 2020, that number drops to $27,309.
As of July, the median listing home price in Bakersfield was $380,000 at $221 per square foot, up 20.6% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $360,000, with homes selling after a median 46 days on the market.
A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $323,000 — a drop of $57,000.
Los Angeles
Coming in at number four, 23% of those polled believe Los Angeles is the city most likely to see housing prices drop.
As of 2021, the City of Angels had a population of 3,849,297, with a median resident age of about 36 years old. The median household income as of 2020 was $65,290, and per capita income was $37,143.
As of July, the median listing home price in Los Angeles was $1 million at $654 per square foot, up 4.4% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $948,000, with homes selling after a median 49 days on the market.
A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $850,000 — a drop of $150,000.
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Tied for fourth place with Los Angeles, 23% of survey respondents predict housing prices in Albuquerque will see a correction.
As of 2019, the city’s population was 560,513, with a median resident age of 37 years old. The estimated pre-pandemic household income was $55,567, and per capita income was estimated at $32,216.
As of July, the median listing home price in Albuquerque was $332,500 at $188 per square foot, up 14.7% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $358,892, with homes selling after a median 51 days on the market.
A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $282,625, a drop of $49,875.
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