Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript February 7, 2024
Triumph Group, Inc. misses on earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $-0.2068 EPS, expectations were $0.13. Triumph Group, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Welcome to Triumph Group's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to introduce Tom Quigley, Triumph's Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thomas Quigley: Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call. Today, I'm joined by Dan Crowley, the company's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim McCabe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Triumph. As we review the financial results for the quarter, please refer to the presentation posted on our website this morning. We'll discuss our adjusted results. Our adjustments and any reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP measures are explained in the earnings press release and in the presentation. Certain statements on this call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Triumph's actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any expected future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Dan, I'll turn it over to you.
Daniel Crowley: Thanks Tom and welcome to Triumph's third quarter call. I'll open my remarks by covering the strategic action we took with the product support sale and the significant benefits it will provide. And Jim and I will discuss our Q3 performance and the primary factors impacting our results and our expectations for record Q4 results to end the fiscal year on an upswing. I'll wrap up with the growth drivers, which instill confidence in our multiyear outlook. Overall, I'm excited about Triumph's future and our ability to deliver expanding levels of profitability and cash flow. This is our first opportunity to discuss the recently announced sale of our product support business, which remains on track to close this quarter.
For Triumph, this is a game-changing transaction, one that will provide both financial and strategic benefits. During our September 2023 Investor Day, we communicated Triumph's priorities and path to accelerating value creation in line with our stakeholder priorities. Delevering our balance sheet has been a top priority. This transformative divestiture will significantly accelerate our delevering progress by reducing our net debt by over 40% and materially reducing our interest carry as early as this March following transaction closure. On Tuesday, we provided a conditional notice on the repayment of certain of our bonds. Jim will provide more color on this later. As summarized on Slide 3, the divestiture truly represents a win for both our shareholders and bondholders and it's entirely consistent with our strategic plan to focus on differentiated components and systems of our own design and to own our aftermarket tail.
When combined with expanding free cash flow and earnings from our remaining operations, this transaction positions Triumph to enter a recursive cycle of financial improvement with higher free cash flow and lower debt to accelerate our growth and shareholder value creation. As shown on Slide 4, post-closing, Triumph will compete in four primary business areas; actuation products and services with 12 sites focused on hydraulic and electric actuation and mechanical controls. Systems and engine controls with three sites servicing the fuel and thermal control markets. Geared solutions with two sites providing power transmissions, integrated gearboxes, and loose gears. And Interiors with five sites producing thermal acoustic insulation systems, composite ducting, and cabin components.
These are competitive businesses, which benefit from our lean transformation and diversity of customers and platforms. Post-closing, substantially all of Triumph sales will be IP-based and/or sole source. We are taking immediate steps to right-size the remaining company with an optimized cost structure that builds on the operational improvements implemented during our transformation and ensures we are well-positioned to achieve our long-term financial and operational targets. To be clear, we expect to continue our steady progress towards 20% EBITDAP margins and free cash flow conversion of 10% of sales or better over the medium term on the strength of Triumph's IP-based product portfolio. As I reflect on the third quarter that ended in December, there were clearly challenges.
However, I'm pleased with our ability to generate seven consecutive quarters of organic sales growth and to achieve positive free cash flow. Turning to Slide 5, I'll summarize the highlights from the quarter. Triumph generated year-over-year organic sales growth of 13% and driven by increasing commercial OEM production rates. Even excluding our discontinued third-party MRO results, our aftermarket sales increased year-over-year with spares and repairs accounting for a robust 26% of our Q3 sales. MRO sales will continue to be a valuable financial driver for Triumph after the sale. We grew our total company backlog by 20% above market growth rates as Triumph expands its participation in a broad array of platforms, customers and end markets. Our year-to-date book-to-bill for Triumph was a very strong 1.34.
And as part of the mentioned rightsizing efforts, we initiated $40 million in cost reduction actions across the company to mitigate any short-term margin dilution from the product support sales and to achieve the long-term earnings and cash metrics we presented at our Investor Day. While Q3 sales were strong, earnings and free cash flow came in below expectations as a result of delayed shipments due to a finite set of supply chain shortages and continued margin weakness in our Interiors business. I'll cover both topics head on and provide facts supporting our confidence in our full year forecast. First, on the delayed deliveries, although our overall supplier on-time delivery and full metric improved from 90% to 92% sequentially over Q3, we still experienced shortages, which held up higher margin deliveries and contributed to our working capital balance.
The specific late deliveries in Q3 were primarily machine components, electronics, castings, and bearings. Prime staff are on site at these suppliers expediting shortages and developing alternate sources for the future. I've been in touch with the CEOs of these firms to secure their commitments to make their fourth quarter deliveries, and we're seeing the results early in Q4. January deliveries were solid with monthly sales of approximately $100 million, which supports our Q4 forecast. We expect over $50 million of inventory to be relieved in Q4. In many cases, we've already completed all Q4 products and are waiting on customer approvals to ship and collect. Customer demand is firm, meaning there's no new orders that are needed to close the fiscal year.
Interior sales increased by 26% in the quarter, though only 15% of Triumph's total sales. That said, Interiors profitability in the quarter and free cash flow continued to lag expectations in Q3 due to the previously mentioned headwinds of labor and material inflation and the peso exchange rate. However, these results are about to change. We expect Interiors to generate mid- to high teens EBITDAP margins in our Q4 as a result of the following actions. Contract price adjustments where customers have specified sole source material call outs and developing alternative sources for those products where suppliers have raised their input prices. Increased labor productivity from the lead events we initiated earlier this year to offset the minimum wage increases affecting all companies doing business in Mexico.
I encourage you to view the videos of the two plants posted in Triumph's website or LinkedIn page to see some of the improvements in the 2,000-plus men and women behind them. And then lastly, overhead absorption benefits from additional work we have been asked to take on from our competitors who are not supporting the OEM ramps, a sign of our customers' loyalty and Triumph's ready capacity. As we have done with our actuation and Engine Controls businesses, both of which are on path to generate EBITDAP margins above 27%, Interiors can and will be restored to prior levels of profitability and free cash flow. Similarly, our Geared Solutions business is on track to deliver double-digit margins in fiscal 2024 after years of work to retire red development programs and transition them to production.
Turning to Page 6 and looking ahead to our fiscal 2024 year-end, the combined tailwinds of deferred Q3 sales, inherent seasonality, incremental price increases and selected IP sales puts us on track to have a record Q4 that will translate into year-over-year margin expansion. Our updated guidance adjusts for the sale of product support. We have a clear line of sight across our RemainCo to deliver over 20% EBITDAP margins in Q4 compared to 16.7% for fiscal 2023. As with the commercial OEMs who posted robust aircraft deliveries in their Q4, we are very busy with product shipments and cash collections in our Q4. As noted, January deliveries were strong as we conduct daily delivery assurance calls to close out our fiscal 2024 with year-over-year improvement expected to cross all financial measures, including over $100 million of free cash flow improvement from prior year.
We look forward to providing fiscal 2025 guidance after the Product Support transaction closes with our year-end results during our next earnings call that reflect the combined contribution of our portfolio actions, cost takeout, and lower interest payments. Jim will now take us through our third quarter results and updated outlook for fiscal 2024 in more detail. Then I'll return to discuss our end market outlook and growth drivers. Jim?
James McCabe: Thanks Dan. Good morning everyone. The sale of our Product Support business, which is on track to close this quarter will transform Triumph's balance sheet. The net proceeds of approximately $700 million will reduce Triumph's outstanding debt by over 40% and will reduce annual cash interest expense by approximately $56 million. Net leverage will reduce to approximately 4 times adjusted EBITDAP by our fiscal year-end next month. This lower leverage will improve our credit profile and create the opportunity for a lower cost of debt and even more interest savings moving forward. The Product Support business is now reported as discontinued operations in all periods presented current and historical. It is important to note that we are in a transitional period for financial reporting.
Triumph's continuing operations in Q3 have not yet benefited from the expected $56 million of annual interest savings from the debt reduction from the transaction proceeds or from the planned $40 million of fixed cost reduction as we manage the continuing business to achieve our consolidated margin and cash flow targets. On Slide 7 is our net debt and liquidity. As of December 31st, we had just under $1.5 billion of net debt. Our cash and availability was approximately $280 million. During the quarter, we purchased $31 million of our 2025 unsecured notes in the market. We purchased those notes at a discount to par, resulting in a $1 million gain. We intend to use the net proceeds for the sale of the product support business to delever and strengthen our balance sheet.
To that end, yesterday, we provided our first lien bondholders with a conditional notice of redemption to redeem $120 million of the first lien 2028 notes at $103. We also provided our unsecured 2025 bondholders with a conditional notice of redemption to redeem all of our unsecured notes at par. Both redemptions are conditioned on the closing of the sale and the unsecured redemption will only occur after we conduct an asset sale offer to the first lien note holders. The first lien notes are currently trading above par, which should impact the holders' decision whether to tender their notes at par. Pro forma for the expected $700 million of divestiture proceeds, Triumph's net debt is less than $800 million. Triumph's third quarter results reflect significant revenue growth and cash generation improvement over the prior year period, partially offset by softness in results in Interiors and in our Geared Solutions business and Systems and Support.
On Slide 8 are the consolidated results for the quarter. Revenue was $285 million. For the continuing business, excluding divestitures and exited programs, organic revenue increased 13% over the prior year quarter. Organic revenue growth primarily benefited from increased commercial OEM volumes and commercial aftermarket repairs and spares, while demand across most of our military end markets, slightly declined during the quarter on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating income for the quarter was $20 million, representing a 7% operating margin. Adjusted EBITDAP for the quarter was $28 million, representing a 10% EBITDAP margin. We expect fourth quarter revenue margins to be significantly higher as you will see in our guidance. Slide 9 shows our growing commercial market revenue.
For the quarter, commercial revenue was $180 million, representing 63% of total revenue. Commercial OEM sales were $141 million and were up 26% in the continuing business. This growth was driven by increases in both volume and price in key programs including the Boeing 787 and 737 programs. Commercial aftermarket sales of $39 million, grew 26% in the continuing business on strong demand for commercial aftermarket spares and repairs. Slide 10 shows our military revenue, which is down slightly. For the quarter, military revenue was $97 million, representing 34% of total revenue. Military OEM sales were down 3% versus prior year as expected, lower sales on V-22, E-2D, and AH-64 were partially offset by growth on the CH-53K program. Military aftermarket sales in the quarter were down 6% compared to last year on unfavorable timing for demand of spares and repairs.
The remaining 1% of our revenue is non-aviation, which is profitable, represented about $3 million of sales in the quarter and is down slightly over last year. Our free cash flow walk is on Slide 11. We generated $22 million of free cash flow in Q3, even with working capital using $23 million of cash in support of increasing fourth quarter sales volume and increasing free cash flow generation. Our fiscal 2024 guidance begins on Slide 12. Our guidance is being updated to exclude product support since it is now reported as discontinued operations. Based on anticipated aircraft production rates, we expect organic growth of 12% to 14% in fiscal 2024, with revenue in the range of $1.17 billion to $1.2 billion. Our adjusted EBITDAP guidance is in the range of $157 million to $167 million, indicating up to a 14% consolidated EBITDAP margin in fiscal 2024 in the continuing business.
Pro forma for the debt reduction interest savings, we continue to expect our continuing operations to be solidly cash positive in Q4, consistent with prior year seasonality driven by working capital liquidation on the fourth quarter sales surge, reduction in past-due backlog and increased inventory turns. We will continue to include product support in our year-end cash guidance given the uncertainty around the closing timing and update investors no later than our next earnings call in May. Interest expense is expected to be $151 million, including $145 million of cash interest, and we expect $7 million of cash taxes. This is prior to the anticipated $56 million of annual interest savings from debt reduction following the closing of the sale of the product support business.
Organic margin expansion, cash generation and debt reduction are expected to drive our net leverage from 7.6 times last fiscal year-end to approximately 4 times at the end of fiscal 2024 next month. We are updating our operating plans as we do this time each year and expect to provide FY 2025 guidance on our next earnings call. With the Product Support business now classified as discontinued operations in all periods presented, you have current and historical results for the continuing business, including sales by end market, all excluding product support. Please also consider the $56 million of annual interest savings from debt reduction with the divestiture proceeds and the $40 million of fixed cost reduction actions being taken. In summary, third quarter results included solid organic revenue growth and positive cash generation, yet lower than planned EBITDAP and operating margin due to the impact of industry-wide supply chain constraints and inflation, both of which we are actively addressing.
Triumph's fundamentals remain strong as we continue to focus on our OEM components, IP-based spares and MRO business. Now, I'll turn the call back to Dan. Dan?
Daniel Crowley: Thanks Jim. Turning to Page 13. I want to share more detail on the growth outlook and the product investments that underpin our excitement in Triumph's future. Both global passenger travel demand, which we measure in RPKs and airline revenues were at or above 2019 levels in 2023. This demand is expected to rise another 10% in 2024, lifting roughly two-thirds of Triumph sales. The strong recovery in airline financials is reflected in higher commercial transport aircraft orders Airbus finished 2023 with record net orders of 2,094 aircraft and Airbus production rate projections are largely holding as reflected in their supplier portal. Triumph's main Airbus narrow-body content on the A320, 321neo family now at rate 60 per month, includes the LEAP engine gearbox, engine cal door actuation, valves, landing year up locks, and a hydraulic transfer pump.
On the A350, now at rate 6 per month, our content includes cabin installation, pumps, utility actuation, and control valves, so profitable content on ramping Airbus programs. Boeing secured 1,314 net orders including the second highest year of 787 orders at 301 since program launch, which gives us confidence that rates of 10 a month or higher are increasingly likely. Note that the Dreamliner is Triumph's highest shipset value program at $1 million per aircraft. Together, in 2023, Airbus and Boeing posted 709 twin aisle orders. This is good news for Triumph as we have substantial twin aisle content. Year-over-year, Triumph's fiscal 2024 revenue on the top four commercial aircraft programs is up 40% in aggregate while backlog rose another 32% even as shipments rise substantially.
Regarding the recent headlines on the 737 MAX production rate, we are aligned with Boeing who are maintaining component build rates of approximately 38 per month in their supplier portal. We do not expect any impact to our multiyear projections due to the recent FAA announcements. We are fully supporting Boeing's supply chain-wide quality improvement efforts as well. In summary, Triumph's commercial OEM sales are up 18% year-over-year. Despite the supply chain challenges impacting the industry and expected to continue to increase with the production ramp of both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft. On the military side, we're seeing a rotation of platform investments as OEM demand for legacy aircraft, such as the V-22 and UH60 decline, while development programs such as the T-7A and CH-53K transition to production and next-gen platforms such as the Army's Future Vertical Lift and next-gen air dominance get started.
On Slide 14, key wins for the quarter included additional GE military engine fueldraulic actuators, betas, CX300 eVTOL, nose, and mainland gear shocks struts, DARPA Sprint program, gearbox design, all solutions based on Triumph IP. Now, 38% of our sales, we expect our mix of military business to continue to turn over with new starts replacing legacy programs and this is where Triumph's work on product innovation will generate long-term value and new aftermarket streams. Turning to Slide 15. Triumph has embarked on a modular solutions approach whereby core products and engine controls, thermal cooling, actuation, and gearboxes, find application on both commercial and military platforms, often developed with customer funding, these core products will be the engine of growth over our planning horizon and a strong source of competitive advantage.
A case in point, Triumph has been selected for GE's next-gen engines for critical actuators and Honeywell's APUs on the strength of our modular digital controls that are scalable, redundant, cyber proof and affordable. Once qualified non-wing, we expect these core products to generate significant top and bottom-line growth in the years to come. On Slide 16, I also want to highlight the recent opening of Triumph's new state-of-the-art Thermal Solutions Development Center at West Hartford in partnership with the State of Connecticut. As aircraft electrical and thermal loads increase, aircraft designers need ways to get that heat offboard. And this lab will provide new capabilities to our growing thermal customer base helping to develop next-gen thermal components and integrated system solutions.
We are particularly excited about our solution for the F-35 power and thermal management system known as PTMS, where Triumph is one of three firms down selected by the F-35 joint program office to compete for the Phase I development effort. We're competing against incumbent Honeywell and Raytheon Technologies to be the integration lead in offering an 80-kilowatt advanced vapor cycle cooling capability for the Lightning II that will be validated in our new West Hartford Thermal Development Center. We are engaged on other thermal solution programs with Northrop Grumman, Sikorsky, Bell, and General Atomics. So, in summary, if you combine steadily improving commercial OEM demand, with Triumph's strong position on next-gen military platforms, our high-margin aftermarket sales and improving balance sheet and cost takeout actions we initiated in Q3 and you've got a recipe for strong follow-through in Q4 in the years ahead.
Despite supply chain delays in our third quarter, my team and I are excited about the future for our company and are set up for a very strong Q4. Triumph's actions to accelerate our deleveraging demonstrates our commitment to value creation and will create the right conditions for success in fiscal 2025 and beyond as the combined benefits of our growing backlog and lower interest expense, fuels our IP-based OEM and aftermarket business. We look forward to updating our investors in May and are happy to take any questions you have.
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