UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript January 31, 2024

UMB Financial Corporation isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

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Operator: Hello all, and welcome to UMB Financial's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Call. My name is Lydia, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand you over to Kay Gregory with Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.

Kay Gregory: Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2023 call. Mariner Kemper, President and CEO; and Ram Shankar, CFO, will share a few comments about our results. Jim Rine, CEO of UMB Bank; and Tom Terry, Chief Credit Officer will also be available for the question-and-answer session. Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties. These risks are included in our SEC filings and are summarized on Slide 45 of our presentation. Actual results may differ from those set forth in forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. We undertake no obligation to update them except to the extent required by securities laws. All earnings per share metrics discussed on this call are on a diluted share basis, and unless otherwise indicated, comparisons are versus third quarter 2023.

Net operating income discussed here and in our slides excludes the FDIC special assessment and certain other expenses and is reconciled in our press release and slide deck. Presentation materials are available online at investorrelations.umb.com. Now, I'll turn the call over to Mariner Kemper.

Mariner Kemper: Thank you, Kay, and good morning. Before I get started, I've got to talk about some very important business by congratulating our hometown heroes, the Kansas City Chiefs, we are yet again headed to the Super Bowl in a couple of weeks. Now, I'd like to discuss our fourth quarter and full year performance for 2023, a year that played out very differently from what we were expecting and I think the rest of you are expecting last year. During a particularly challenging period for the banking industry, UMB delivered strong results, demonstrating the power and resilience of our diversified business model. We closed out the year with a solid fourth quarter. I'll review a few highlights, and then Ram will add more detail in the Financial and Driver section.

As you know, most banks recognize the expense for the FDIC special assessment in the fourth quarter. Our share of the assessment was $52.8 million, an impact of about $1.08 per share pre-tax to net income. We presented our financial metrics both on a GAAP basis and adjusted to exclude this charge. For the full year of 2023, net income was $350 million or $7.18 a share. On an adjusted basis, net operating income was $397.1 million or $8.14 per share. For the fourth quarter, we earned $70.9 million or $1.45 a share. However, as adjusted, net operating income was $112 million or $2.29 per share, representing an increase of 13.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023 and 10.8% compared to the fourth quarter a year ago. Our results reflected strong loan growth and deposit growth, expanding net interest margin and net interest income, solid fee income growth and exceptional asset quality.

Average loan balances increased 6.3% on an annualized basis from the third quarter to $23.1 billion. For comparison, banks between $10 billion and $100 billion in assets that have reported results so far have shown an annualized increase of 3.6%. We posted strong top-line production, 40% above third quarter and in line with our levels in recent quarters. Construction and commercial real estate drove most of our loan growth in the first quarter with continued draws on previously approved construction loans. Payoff levels increased to 4.4% of loans impacting C&I balances. CRE growth has been largely in multifamily and industrial projects. Once again, we've included more detail on the portfolio in our slides, showing the mix of loans by type and geography, along with LTVs and other metrics.

Asset quality in the book remains strong. We adhere to conservative standards, which includes underwriting to imputed or stressed interest rates and moderate loan to value ratios. We don't use trended rents and we have very strong liquid sponsors with great cash flow. 90% of our investment CRE portfolio is recoursed. Speaking of asset quality, we reported excellent metrics with improvements across the board. Nonperforming loan levels improved again to 6 basis points, delinquency levels declined and we saw an 11% decrease in classified loans. Net charge-offs were 2 basis points of average loans for the quarter and just 5 basis points for the full year of 2023. Again, we outperformed peer banks, which have reported a median net charge-off rate for the fourth quarter of 15 basis points so far.

On Slide 26, we included a longer term history of charge-offs, which have averaged just 28 basis points over the last 20 years. In 2023, we experienced a 16 basis point reduction in our annual charge-off rate compared to 2022, reflecting the active management of our portfolio. I'm pleased with this result, especially given the environment and cautious narrative we're hearing across the industry. Again, we compare favorably to peer banks, which have reported a median 6 basis point increase and net charge-off levels year-over-year. Moving to deposits. Average balances increased 17.2% on an annualized basis from the third quarter. This growth was led by commercial customers, including 11% annualized increase in commercial DDA balances. We are seeing traction from our efforts to bring clients' total banking relationships to UMB.

Peer so far have seen average annualized deposit growth of just 2.5% thus far in the quarter. Net interest income increased 3.7%, as margin improved 3 basis points sequentially. From industry reports so far, our NIM expansion compares favorably with peers reporting a median decline of 4 basis points. We continue to deploy cash flows from the securities portfolio into loans, and the pace of increased funding costs has slowed each of the past two quarters. Ram will share more detail and drivers on our margin outlook for 2024. Noninterest income for the fourth quarter was $148.3 million representing 38% of revenue, more than 2x the 17% median reported by peers. Our fee businesses continue to build scale and we're seeing momentum in several areas.

A few highlights include fund services where assets under administration have eclipsed $411 billion, a $48 billion improvement over 2022 levels. And in our custody business, we have had a 27% increase and net new accounts this year. Our fixed income and trading team saw increased activity as the expectation that the Fed has finished raising rates and it's provided a little more clarity and brought some participants back into the market. We've shared additional detail on our fee income businesses and the revenue is provided by them in our slides, and Ram will add more detail when he speaks. Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased 4.3% from a linked quarter basis. We posted positive operating leverage of 1.3% on a linked quarter basis, and 0.3% in the year-over-year quarter.

As seen on Slide 31, our capital position improved during the fourth quarter with a 17 basis point increase in both CET1 and total capital ratios, which stood at 10.94% and 12.85%, respectively. Our earnings continue to support our capital position in spite of the impact of the FDIC special assessment. Finally, we saw increased profitability ratios with operating ROTCE of 16.62% versus 14.96% in the third quarter. Tangible book value improved nearly 12% from September 30 to $58.12 per share. Fewer banks so far have reported a median tangible book value increase of 6.9% linked quarter. Overall, we had a very solid quarter, especially given the challenging year we all had. Before I turn it over to Ram, I'd like to share a few thoughts on the events of last spring but ultimately led to the FDIC's special assessment we recognized in the fourth quarter.

A county courthouse, representing the legal services the company provides.
A county courthouse, representing the legal services the company provides.

It has become very clear that the underlying cause of the 2023 bank failures with interest rate mismatch primarily on the asset side, a few banks were ill positioned and poorly managed for the interest rate environment we found ourselves in, with a largely fixed asset base that lacked flexibility. One lesson learned during that time was the power of various market participants to fuel a largely media based crisis in circus. As the panic spread across media outlets, the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy became real. Our reputation with our clients and in our markets is something we have earned and cherished over 110 years of history. It was extremely frustrating for us to watch these industry observers pontificate based on a lack of understanding of how the industry works and continue to focus on the wrong sentiments like unadjusted, uninsured deposits or AOCI.

This was a classic case of facts getting in the way of a good narrative. As I've said before, thank you to you, the analysts and the investors on the call with us today, who took the time and care to understand the somatic of what transpired in the spring. Year-end reports have confirmed what we already knew to be true. The fundamentals in this industry remain steady. The demise of regional banks didn't happen as predicted and banks like ours that were well prepared have not only weathered the storm, but emerged stronger and with positive results. The resiliency of the banking industry has been evident and on display in recent months and the liquidity, regulatory capital levels, loan portfolio asset quality and funding sources remain strong.

In closing, I'm incredibly proud of our UMB associates that drove this performance, and I'm deeply grateful to our loyal client base but grew with us through this much exaggerated industry noise in 2023. It was extremely rewarding to see how our company and customers came together to support each other. As always, we run our company with a strong focus on both the short-term and the long-term performance through every stage and every economic cycle, and we feel good about our strategy. Looking ahead into 2024, we see a muted but resilient macro environment, and we remain well-positioned for any environment with an attractive loan to deposit level, strong capital ratios and high quality loan portfolio. With that, I'll turn it over to Ram to give you more details on our results.

Ram?

Ram Shankar : Thanks, Mariner. Net interest income increased $8.2 million in the fourth quarter to $230.5 million driven primarily by loan growth and repricing along with higher levels of liquidity. Net interest margin was 2.46%, an increase of 3 basis points from the linked quarter. Loan repricing and mix provided a 9 basis point benefit. Other positives included 3 basis points from the benefit of free funds and liquidity levels, including stable levels of DDA balances, 2 basis points from the securities portfolio and 1 basis point from changes in borrowing levels. These benefits were partially offset by higher deposit costs. Cycle-to-date, our earning asset beta has been tracking along with our total cost of funds beta, both now at 53%.

Average deposits increased 17.2% annualized from the third quarter, benefiting from the ongoing deposit gathering initiatives across all our lines of businesses. The typical seasonal increase in public fund balances during the month of December, added $157 million in average deposits for the quarter. These increases were partially offset by the intentional reduction in brokered CD balances. Excluding those broker deposits, average deposits increased 22% annualized from the prior quarter. Additionally, corporate trust deposits tend to be a little bit lumpy as clients build up cash and make payments throughout the year. As the third largest municipal trustee in the U.S., balances will ebb and flow driven by municipal bond distributions and other activity.

I'll note that on an end of period basis, corporate trust deposits increased, pointing to the timing differences throughout the quarter in our escrow, specialty trust and paying agent businesses. Our deposit remix continued at a slower pace this quarter. DDA balances increased 1% from the third quarter and now represent 31% of total average deposits providing the benefit to margin I noted. Cycle-to-date betas on total deposits and on loan yields are 48% and 59%, respectively. This is on-track with our previously discussed expectations for terminal betas of approximately 50% for deposits and 60% for loans. Looking ahead into the first quarter, we expect our loan yields will continue to benefit from the flexibility we built into our balance sheet through repricing as loans come up for renewal and from higher yields on new origination.

Overall, we expect our loan yields to meet or exceed the increases in cost of funds. Additionally, we have approximately $1.6 billion in cash flows from our securities portfolio, rolling off at 2.2% that will be reinvested in higher yielding loans or securities. In the fourth quarter, we began legging back in with some modest repurchases of mortgage backed and treasury securities. We will continue to assess based on collateral needs, loan growth and overall market conditions. As liquidity and public fund balances seasonally dissipate and given one less day in the first quarter, we expect net interest income and margin to compress modestly from fourth quarter levels. Actual performance will be driven by material shifts in funding mix, especially DDA balances and the shape of the curve.

Details and activities in our securities portfolio are shown on Slides 27 and 28. The combined AFS and held to maturity portfolios averaged $12.1 billion during the quarter, a decline of 1.5% from the third quarter. The average roll off yield was 2.38% for the quarter. The new purchases of $154 million shown on the table excluded $500 million of short-term T-Bills purchased at 5.39% as additional collateral for public funds deposit. Excluding those treasuries, we expect $1.6 billion of securities with a yield of $223 million to roll off over the next 12 months. The unrealized loss position in our combined securities book improved this quarter to $1.1 billion, representing approximately 8.5% of the total portfolio, down from 14% in the third quarter.

Back to the income statement, our provision expense of zero this quarter was the result of payoffs on net loan growth, the quality of our portfolio, including the low level of net charge-offs and macroeconomic variables that seem to and a softer lending. As we look into the first quarter, we expect provision to be impacted by a small acquisition of a co-brand credit card portfolio expected to close in March, which will add approximately $125 million in balances with a day one provision of roughly $6 million and ongoing provision based on portfolio performance, growth and macroeconomic variables. This acquisition will also add approximately $10 million in net interest income, $2 million in interchange fees, and a breakeven pre-tax pre provision in the first year, excluding conversion and integration costs.

On the fee income side, reported results included some market related variances, including increases of $3.7 million in company owned life insurance income and $567,000 in customer related derivative income. Trading and investment banking income increased $2 million primarily related to municipal trading volume. The detailed drivers of noninterest expense are shown in our slides and press release and on a GAAP basis, included the recognition of the $52.8 million FDIC special assessment. On an operating basis, expenses increased $6.9 million or 3% from the third quarter to $235.9 million. Detailed variances are included on Slide 22, but the largest impacts were $3.1 million in deferred compensation expense, an increase of $2.7 million from the prior quarter.

This is the offset to the increased COLI income, $2.3 million related to the pre buy of computers in the fourth quarter and $1.5 million in additional charitable contributions. Partial offsets included a $1.6 million decrease in payroll taxes, insurance and 401(k) expense and a $467,000 reduction in bonus and commissions expense. Excluding the onetime items and timing related variances, our core expense run rate in the fourth quarter was approximately $230 million. Please note that in addition to the impact of the Cobrand card portfolio acquisition, first quarter salary and benefits expense will increase with the impact of the extra leap year day and for the typical seasonal reset of FICA and payroll taxes. Our effective tax rate was 17% for the full year 2023 compared to 18.9% in 2022.

The decreased rate was driven primarily by a larger portion of income from tax exempt securities and variations in levels of COLI income. For 2024, we would expect a similar tax rate ranging from 17% to 19%. That concludes our prepared remarks, and I'll now turn it back over to the operator to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

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