Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Cochlear Limited's (ASX:COH) Shares
Cochlear Limited's (ASX:COH) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 65.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Recent times have been pleasing for Cochlear as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
See our latest analysis for Cochlear
Keen to find out how analysts think Cochlear's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Cochlear would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.0% gain to the company's bottom line. Although, the latest three year period in total hasn't been as good as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 16% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 18% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that Cochlear is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
What We Can Learn From Cochlear's P/E?
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Cochlear currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Cochlear with six simple checks.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Cochlear. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
