Upstart (UPST) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Upstart Holdings UPST is slated to release second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 8.
For the second quarter, the company expects revenues of approximately $135 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $133.9 million, suggesting a decline of 41.3% year over year.
The consensus mark is pegged at a loss of 6 cents per share, unchanged in the past seven days, suggesting a plunge of 700%.
UPST’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the negative surprise being 8.07%, on average.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
Upstart’s second-quarter results are likely to gain from its strategy to operate as a multiproduct company. Recent launches across its product portfolio powered by generative AI and machine learning might have favored UPST’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Management expects revenues from fees of approximately $130 million while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $131 million.
The company is expected to have been aided by the launch of its Upstart Macro Index or UMI. This new metric measures how changing economic conditions, like inflation and unemployment, affect credit performance. UMI is likely to have given the company a competitive advantage in the second quarter.
UPST is expected to have gained from a growing partner base in the second quarter. It is engaged with multiple prospective partners who are actively exploring long-term capital relationships.
In the quarter to be reported, Upstart is likely to have benefited from providing lenders with near real-time insight into the financial health and allowing them to adjust their lending programs accordingly. It marks a step forward in furnishing banks and credit unions with lending infrastructure that autonomously and rapidly adapt to changes in the economy. The consensus mark for net platform and referral fees, and net servicing and other fees is pegged at $94 million and $38.18 million, respectively.
Further degradation in the macro environment, conservative assumption for UMI in loan pricing, seasonal headwinds and tightening from funding partners are expected to have hurt the top line in the quarter under discussion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from fees is pegged at $131 million.
Consumer delinquencies are elevated and the funding markets remain limited in their appetite for risk. This is expected to have increased loan pricing in the company’s platform and lowered approval rates for loan applicants, thus reducing transaction volume and affecting the top line.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Although UPST carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present, it has an Earnings ESP of -50.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With Favorable Combination
Per our model, Twilio TWLO, Celsius CELH and Inter Parfums IPAR have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in upcoming releases.
Twilio has an Earnings ESP of +6.90% and carries a Zacks Rank #2, at present. It is scheduled to report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 8. TWLO’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 138.8%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TWLO’s quarterly earnings is pegged at 29 cents per share, suggesting a year-over-year surge of 363.6%. Quarterly revenues are estimated to increase 4.4% year over year to $984.5 million.
Currently, Celsius has an Earnings ESP of +16.51% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is set to report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 8. CELH’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering a negative surprise of 99%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CELH’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 26 cents per share, implying a year-over-year rise of 116.7%. The company is estimated to report revenues of $281.9 million, which suggests an improvement of 83.1% from the year-ago quarter.
Inter Parfums has an Earnings ESP of +6.22% and presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. It is slated to report its second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 8. IPAR’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, missing once, the average surprise being 37.2%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums’ second-quarter earnings is pegged at 89 cents per share, indicating a 3.5% increase from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 86 cents. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $309.1 million, suggesting a year-over-year climb of 26.3%.
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Inter Parfums, Inc. (IPAR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) : Free Stock Analysis Report
