US$14.00 - That's What Analysts Think Poseida Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSTX) Is Worth After These Results
Poseida Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSTX) just released its latest full-year results and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$65m beat estimates by a substantial 40% margin. Unfortunately, Poseida Therapeutics also reported a statutory loss of US$1.37 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Poseida Therapeutics
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Poseida Therapeutics is for revenues of US$46.7m in 2024. This implies a disturbing 28% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.72 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$47.2m and US$1.57 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Poseida Therapeutics after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.
Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 14% to 12.25, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Poseida Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$20.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Poseida Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 28% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 70% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Poseida Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Poseida Therapeutics. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Poseida Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Poseida Therapeutics that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
