US$15.00 - That's What Analysts Think American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEI) Is Worth After These Results
The investors in American Public Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:APEI) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 27% to US$13.63 in the week following its full-year results. It was a respectable set of results; while revenues of US$601m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 14% smaller than expected, with American Public Education losing US$2.94 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for American Public Education
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for American Public Education from four analysts is for revenues of US$614.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with American Public Education forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.55 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$613.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.60 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 73% to US$15.00, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Public Education's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than American Public Education.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that American Public Education's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on American Public Education. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple American Public Education analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for American Public Education you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
