US$172 - That's What Analysts Think Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) Is Worth After These Results
Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of €267m beat estimates by a substantial 26% margin. Ascendis Pharma also reported a statutory loss of €8.55 per share, which was roughly in line with what the analysts predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Ascendis Pharma
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ascendis Pharma from twelve analysts is for revenues of €429.0m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 61% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 49% to €4.33. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €416.8m and losses of €5.22 per share in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Ascendis Pharma's future following the latest consensus numbers, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.
The consensus price target rose 6.2% to US$172, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ascendis Pharma at US$225 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$117. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 61% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 67% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. So although Ascendis Pharma is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ascendis Pharma going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Ascendis Pharma (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
