US$23.75 - That's What Analysts Think Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Is Worth After These Results
Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Sales crushed expectations at US$11m, beating expectations by 22%. Exagen reported a statutory loss of US$0.34 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Exagen
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Exagen are now predicting revenues of US$53.6m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a substantial 36% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 4.7% to US$1.26 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$55.1m and losses of US$1.26 per share in 2021.
The analysts lifted their price target 30% to US$23.75per share, with reduced revenue estimates seemingly not expected to have a long-term impact on the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Exagen analyst has a price target of US$32.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Exagen's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 36% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 15% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Exagen to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Exagen. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Exagen going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Exagen you should be aware of.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
