US$29.90 - That's What Analysts Think Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) Is Worth After These Results
It's been a good week for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 7.0% to US$26.40. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$9.4b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.34. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Graphic Packaging Holding
Following last week's earnings report, Graphic Packaging Holding's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$9.56b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to US$2.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.75b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.54 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 5.5% to US$29.90, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Graphic Packaging Holding analyst has a price target of US$33.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$21.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Graphic Packaging Holding shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Graphic Packaging Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Graphic Packaging Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Graphic Packaging Holding. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Graphic Packaging Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Graphic Packaging Holding that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
