US$5.50: That's What Analysts Think Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) Is Worth After Its Latest Results
There's been a notable change in appetite for Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 19% to US$0.54. Revenues of US$156m crushed expectations, although expenses increased commensurately, with statutory losses hitting US$0.69 per share, -10% above what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Agenus
Following the latest results, Agenus' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$279.1m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 79% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 31% to US$0.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$214.2m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts significantly increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase. It looks like the top line growth will not be achieved without incremental costs.
It will come as no surprise that expanding losses caused the consensus price target to fall 18% to US$5.50with the analysts implicitly ranking ongoing losses as a greater concern than growing revenues. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Agenus at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Agenus' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 79% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Agenus to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Agenus analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Agenus (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
