US natgas down 3% on rising output, forecasts for less demand next week

May 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Monday on rising output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. The price decline came even though U.S. power generators have burned more gas in recent weeks to produce electricity due to low wind power, and as gas exports from Canada remain lower than normal due to wildfires in Alberta. The amount of U.S. power generated by wind last week dropped to just 8% of the total versus a recent high of 17% during the week ended April 21, according to federal energy data. That means there will be less of the fuel available to go into storage. The amount of power generated by gas hit 42% last week, up from a recent low of 37% during the windy week ended April 21. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 7.7 cents, or 3.0%, to $2.508 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:27 a.m. EDT (1227 GMT). That price decline pushed the front-month out of technically overbought territory for the first time in three days. But after gas prices rose 14% last week, speculators switched their futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges to net long from net short for the first time since mid-April, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. In the spot market, mild weather and ample hydropower in the U.S. West pressured next-day gas prices for Monday at the PG&E Citygate in Northern California to $3.52 per mmBtu, its lowest since March 2021. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, which would top April's monthly record of 101.4 bcfd. Over the past few weeks, the average amount of gas flowing from Canada to the U.S. averaged just 7.0 bcfd as wildfires in Alberta and other western provinces caused some producers to shut oil and gas output, according to Refinitiv. That is well below the 8.4-bcfd average amount of gas Canada exported to the U.S. since the start of the year and 2022's average of 9.0 bcfd. About 8% of the gas consumed in, or exported from the U.S., comes from Canada. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through June 6. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 90.2 bcfd this week to 89.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a record 14.0 bcfd in April to an average of 12.9 bcfd so far in May due to maintenance work at several plants, including Cameron LNG in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. Last month's record flows were higher than the 13.8 bcfd of gas the seven big plants can turn into LNG since the facilities also use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year May 19 May 12 May 19 average (Forecast) (Actual) May 19 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 106 99 88 96 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,346 2,240 1,807 1,996 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 17.5% 17.9% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Day Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.52 2.59 8.16 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.46 9.66 28.96 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 9.84 9.72 22.70 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Day Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 28 28 29 33 40 U.S. GFS CDDs 98 99 95 96 107 U.S. GFS TDDs 126 127 124 129 147 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 101.6 101.7 96.8 89.1 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.0 6.2 6.6 8.2 7.7 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 107.4 107.8 108.3 105.0 96.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.4 5.7 5.5 6.2 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 12.7 12.9 13.4 13.0 7.0 U.S. Commercial 5.0 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.7 U.S. Residential 5.8 4.6 4.2 4.6 6.7 U.S. Power Plant 34.2 31.6 31.4 29.1 27.5 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.1 21.0 21.3 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 72.7 69.3 68.4 66.6 68.4 Total U.S. Demand 92.8 90.2 89.5 88.4 82.9 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended May 26 May 19 May 12 May 5 Apr 28 Wind 7 8 12 13 12 Solar 4 4 5 5 4 Hydro 9 9 9 8 7 Other 2 2 2 2 3 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 42 40 39 39 Coal 15 15 14 13 16 Nuclear 21 19 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Prior Day Day Henry Hub 2.37 2.30 Transco Z6 New York 1.42 1.41 PG&E Citygate 3.52 3.62 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.38 1.34 Chicago Citygate 2.12 2.06 Algonquin Citygate 1.55 1.43 SoCal Citygate 2.10 2.11 Waha Hub 1.95 1.47 AECO 1.93 1.90 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Prior Day Day New England 27.75 26.00 PJM West 29.75 31.25 Ercot North 33.50 36.33 Mid C 1.50 19.50 Palo Verde 9.75 17.50 SP-15 12.25 18.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton)