Vail Resorts, Inc. Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected
As you might know, Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 6.5% short of analyst estimates at US$1.1b, and statutory earnings of US$5.76 per share missed forecasts by 3.8%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Vail Resorts
Following the latest results, Vail Resorts' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.93b in 2024. This would be a satisfactory 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 23% to US$7.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.98 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 5.8% to US$243, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vail Resorts analyst has a price target of US$272 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$201. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Vail Resorts'historical trends, as the 6.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 7.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.6% per year. So although Vail Resorts is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Vail Resorts' future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Vail Resorts analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Vail Resorts .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
