Verra Mobility Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Investors in Verra Mobility Corporation (NASDAQ:VRRM) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.9% to close at US$22.88 following the release of its annual results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$817m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 32% to hit US$0.36 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Verra Mobility
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Verra Mobility's seven analysts is for revenues of US$871.5m in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 142% to US$0.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$859.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.84 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 5.4% to US$25.83despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Verra Mobility's earnings by assigning a price premium. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Verra Mobility analyst has a price target of US$29.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$21.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Verra Mobility's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Verra Mobility's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Verra Mobility's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Verra Mobility. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Verra Mobility analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Verra Mobility (1 is significant!) that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
