Vertex (VRTX) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 5, after market close.
The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Vertex reported an earnings surprise of 3.76%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company came up with an earnings surprise of 4.08%.
Factors to Note
Vertex currently markets four cystic fibrosis (CF) products — Trikafta/Kaftrio, Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.
Revenues in fourth-quarter 2023 are likely to have been driven by the rapid uptake of its blockbuster CF medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe). In the last reported quarter, international sales and expanded use in children (aged between two and five years) with CF in the United States drove up sales of the drug. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales is currently pegged at $2.29 billion, while our model estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales stands at $2.28 billion.
Kaftrio was approved by the European Commission for treating children two to five years old in November 2023. It is also likely to have aided international sales of the drug in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of Vertex’s other CF drugs.
We believe investors are awaiting updates on Vertex’s non-CF pipeline candidates on the fourth-quarter conference call.
In December 2023, the FDA approved Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP gene therapy, Casgevy (exa-cel), for treating sickle cell disease in patients aged 12 years and older.
Last month, Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics announced that the FDA expanded the Casgevy label to treat transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in patients aged 12 years and older.
We expect management to provide updates on Casgevy's launch activities on the upcoming earnings call.
Vertex is also developing several investigational therapies targeting acute and neuropathic pain, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, type I diabetes and alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Updates regarding the same are also expected in the upcoming earnings call.
Recent Developments
In January 2024, Vertex announced positive data from three late-stage studies on its investigational orally-administered non-opioid pain medicine, VX-548, to treat moderate-to-severe acute pain.
The company evaluated VX-548 in two pivotal phase III acute pain studies — one following bunionectomy surgery and the other following abdominoplasty surgery. The studies achieved their primary endpoint — treatment with VX-548 showed a significant reduction in pain intensity across a 48-hour period compared with placebo.
Vertex also evaluated VX-548 for up to 14 days in a single-arm late-stage study across a broad range of other surgical and non-surgical acute pain conditions. Data from the study showed that around 83% of study participants rated the drug as “good, very good, or excellent” in treating pain.
Based on the above data, Vertex plans to submit a new drug application with the FDA for VX-548 across a broad label in moderate-to-severe acute pain by mid-2024.
Shares of Vertex have rallied 44.1% in the past year against the industry’s decline of 13.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whisper
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vertex has an Earnings ESP of -1.23%. The Most Accurate Estimate stands at earnings of $4.03, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at earnings of $4.08.
Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Blueprint Medicines Corporation BPMC has an Earnings ESP of +9.84% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Blueprint Medicines’ stock has surged 75% in the past year. BPMC beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Blueprint Medicines delivered an earnings surprise of 11.29%, on average. BPMC will report its fourth-quarter results on Feb 15.
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +52.45% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Sarepta’s stock has risen 3.2% in the past year. SRPT beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Sarepta delivered an earnings surprise of 48.67%, on average.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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