Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript January 26, 2024
Weyerhaeuser Company isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Greetings and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor. You may begin.
Andy Taylor: Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss Weyerhaeuser's fourth quarter 2023 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements, as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website. On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.
Devin Stockfish: Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported full year GAAP earnings of $839 million or $1.15 per diluted share on net sales of $7.7 billion. Excluding special items, full year 2023 earnings totaled $749 million or $1.02 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.7 billion for the year. For the fourth quarter, we reported GAAP earnings of $219 million or $0.30 per diluted share on net sales of $1.8 billion. Excluding a net after-tax benefit of $98 million for special items, we earned $121 million or $0.16 per diluted share for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $321 million. I'll start this morning by thanking our employees for their solid execution and performance in 2023.
Through their collective efforts, we delivered industry-leading operating performance, continued to serve our customers and drove meaningful advancements across our multiyear targets. As we enter 2024, we're well positioned to capitalize on improving market conditions and remain focused on driving superior long-term value for our shareholders. As highlighted on Page 19 of our earnings slides, we generated $986 million of adjusted funds available for distribution in 2023. We announced yesterday that our Board of Directors declared a supplemental cash dividend of $0.14 per share. When combined with our quarterly base dividend of $0.76 per share, we're returning total dividends to shareholders of $0.90 per share. Including $125 million of shares repurchased during the year, Weyerhaeuser is returning $783 million of total cash to shareholders based on 2023 results or approximately 80% of 2023 adjusted FAD which is at the high end of our annual target payout range.
As summarized on Page 20, upon payment of the supplemental dividend, we will have returned $4.6 billion in total cash to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchase since the first full year of our new cash framework in 2021. It's worth noting that although our adjusted FAD in 2023 was lower than the last couple of years due to challenging market conditions, we continue to demonstrate that our cash return framework is both sustainable and appropriate for the company's portfolio and the cash flow that we generate from our businesses across market cycles. Notably, we increased our base dividend by 5.6% in 2023 and returned additional cash through share repurchase in our supplemental dividend. The additional cash was fully funded within our framework and required no balance sheet or portfolio actions to cover our return commitment.
And given the design of our framework, we retain 20% to 25% of our adjusted FAD annually, all of which can be utilized as we evaluate future capital allocation levers, including strategic growth opportunities. We continue to believe this framework is a powerful differentiator, one that enhances our ability to drive long-term shareholder value by returning meaningful and appropriate amounts of cash back to shareholders across a variety of market conditions and also delivers an attractive total dividend yield to our shareholders. Before moving on to business segment results, I'd like to comment briefly on the purchase and sale transactions that we completed in the fourth quarter which included the acquisition of high-quality timberlands in the Carolinas and Mississippi and the divestiture of less strategic acreage in upstate South Carolina.
These transactions represent a unique opportunity to further optimize our Southern Timberlands portfolio with high-quality, highly productive acreage that is well integrated with our existing operations. And these transactions were structured in a tax-efficient like-kind exchange, resulting in a net cash inflow of $7 million. The gain was recorded on the sale transaction and reported as a special item in the fourth quarter. As highlighted on Page 22, we're progressing nicely against our target to grow our timberlands portfolio through $1 billion of disciplined investments between 2022 and 2025. To date, we've deployed approximately $530 million towards our goal, including announced acquisitions in Washington, the Carolinas and Mississippi. With that, I'll now turn to fourth quarter business results, starting with Timberlands on Pages 7 through 10 of our earnings slides.
Excluding special items, Timberlands contributed $77 million to fourth quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million and results across all Timberlands regions were comparable to the third quarter. Turning to the Western domestic market, log demand and pricing faced downward pressure at the outset of the fourth quarter as mills adjusted to a softening lumber market and worked through elevated log inventories. As the quarter progressed, lumber takeaway improved slightly and log supply decreased seasonally. Despite lower log prices during the quarter, our average domestic sales realizations were slightly higher compared to the third quarter, largely driven by an increased mix of grade logs. Our domestic sales volumes were lower in the fourth quarter as we shifted volume to China to capture higher-margin opportunities.
Per unit log and haul costs were moderately higher and forestry and road costs were seasonally lower. Our fee harvest volumes were slightly lower compared to the third quarter. Moving to the Western export business. In Japan, despite ongoing consumption headwinds, inventories of European lumber imports have largely normalized and the Japanese log market returned to a more balanced state in the fourth quarter. As a result, our average sales realizations for export volumes to Japan were comparable to the third quarter. Our Japanese sales volumes were slightly lower in the fourth quarter and continued to be impacted by reduced shipments to a customer that sustained fire damage at one of its sawmills in the third quarter of last year. That said, this customer has implemented plans to recover most of the lost production and we continue to shift volume to other customers in Japan.
As a result, we expect to increase our export volumes into the Japanese market in the first quarter. In China, log supply into the region has adjusted to lower consumption levels and the market was largely balanced in the fourth quarter. As a result, our average sales realizations for export volumes to China were comparable to the third quarter. Given steady demand from our Chinese customers, coupled with moderating market conditions in Western domestic market, we significantly increased our sales volumes into China in the fourth quarter. Turning to the South. Southern sawlog and fiber markets softened slightly in the fourth quarter, largely in response to ample log supply, elevated mill inventories and reduced demand for finished goods. Despite these market dynamics, demand for our logs remained steady, given our delivered programs across the region.
As a result, our average sales realizations and fee harvest volumes were comparable to the third quarter. Per unit log and haul costs were also comparable and forestry and road costs were seasonally lower. Turning now to Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources on Pages 11 and 12. For the full year, Real Estate and ENR generated $320 million of adjusted EBITDA, slightly higher than our revised full year guidance. In the fourth quarter, the segment contributed $50 million to earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, a $27 million decrease compared to the third quarter, largely driven by the timing and mix of properties sold. Average price per acre increased from the prior quarter and remains elevated compared to historical levels as we continue to see stable interest from buyers for HBU properties, resulting in high-value transactions with significant premiums to timber value.
I'll now make a few comments on our Natural Climate Solutions business. As shown on Page 23, our full year adjusted EBITDA was $47 million. This represents a 9% increase compared to 2022 and a 114% increase since the inception of this business in 2020. For 2023, we achieved solid contributions from conservation, mitigation banking and renewables and demand for these businesses continues to grow. In addition, we achieved notable milestones in our forest carbon business in 2023, including the approval of our pilot project in Maine and the monetization of the initial credits from this project. These credits were sold in the fourth quarter at a strong price and demonstrate our commitment to offering only the highest quality credits to the market.
Looking forward, we expect the new issuance of credits from our Maine project later this year. Further, we're developing additional forest carbon projects within our U.S. timberlands. We anticipate receiving approval on 2 projects in the U.S. South in early '24 and intend to monetize additional credits in the voluntary market this year. Turning to our carbon capture and sequestration business. We continue to see solid progress being made on the projects we've announced with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures and Exxon and both are expected to be online in late 2025 or 2026. Moving forward, we continue to advance discussions with high-quality CCS developers on portions of our Southern U.S. acreage and expect to announce additional agreements in the future.
As we look back over the last several years, I'm extremely proud of the progress that we've made in our Natural Climate Solutions business and the leadership we've demonstrated along the way. We were the first company in our space to embark on this journey in a comprehensive manner and had delivered notable accomplishments across all of our NCS businesses. And in the process, we built a world-class team with deep technical expertise and a strong commercial focus. We've laid the foundation to develop and advance our NCS offerings in-house, allowing Weyerhaeuser to capture the vast majority of the economics associated with these opportunities. And we've quickly established a peer-leading position in emerging carbon markets. As we think about the future, we remain focused on growing our NCS business to $100 million of EBITDA by year-end 2025 and we see significant future upside as markets continue to develop, particularly in carbon and renewables.
And with the work we've already completed and the prospects of advancing NCS across our expansive timberland holdings, we have a lot of conviction that there is no company in this space with the capabilities or asset base to deliver on this value creation opportunity at scale like Weyerhaeuser. So now moving on to Wood Products on Pages 13 through 15. Wood Products contributed $105 million to earnings before special items in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $159 million, a 52% reduction from the third quarter, largely driven by lower commodity pricing. Starting with lumber. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was a $34 million loss. Weaker product pricing was the primary driver as the framing lumber composite posted its lowest quarterly average in a number of years.
Our average sales realizations decreased 14% compared to the third quarter. This was driven by cautious buyer sentiment and ample lumber supply in the North American market. That said, buyer sentiment and product pricing started to improve toward the end of the year, following stronger-than-expected housing starts data and positive signals from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rates. Our fourth quarter performance was further impacted by a decrease in production levels which resulted in lower sales volumes and higher unit manufacturing costs. This was largely driven by a combination of taking additional holiday downtime at our Pacific Northwest mills, a period of downtime at our mill in British Columbia and operating challenges at certain facilities.
Market conditions were particularly challenging in the Northwest in the fourth quarter, given the more rapid decline in lumber pricing compared to log prices. As we enter 2024, market conditions are starting to improve and we expect stronger performance from our lumber business in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for OSB was $73 million, a decrease of $45 million compared to the third quarter, primarily due to lower product pricing. Benchmark pricing for OSB began the quarter on a downward trajectory but stabilized by the end of October and increased through year-end. This improvement was largely driven by lean inventories, supply limitations and a resilient demand from new home construction activity. As a result, our OSB pricing exited the quarter at a higher level than where we entered.
However, our fourth quarter average realizations decreased by 17% compared to the prior quarter. Our sales volumes and fiber costs were comparable to the third quarter and unit manufacturing costs were moderately lower. Engineered Wood Products delivered $104 million of adjusted EBITDA, a decrease of $21 million compared to the third quarter. Sales realizations for most products decreased slightly as supply and demand continue to rebalance in certain markets. I would note, however, that pricing remains quite healthy on a historical basis. Sales volumes were lower for most products compared to the third quarter, driven by seasonally lower demand and improving supply across the EWP market. Unit manufacturing costs were slightly lower in the fourth quarter and raw material costs increased primarily for OSB web stock.
In Distribution, adjusted EBITDA decreased $15 million compared to the third quarter, largely driven by a decrease in commodity realizations and seasonally lower sales volumes. With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our first quarter and 2024 outlook.
David Wold: Thank you, Devin and good morning, everyone. I'll be covering key financial items and fourth quarter financial performance before moving into our first quarter and full year 2024 outlook. I'll begin with key financial items which are summarized on Page 17. We generated $288 million of cash from operations in the fourth quarter, bringing our total for the year to more than $1.4 billion. As Devin mentioned, we are returning $783 million to shareholders based on 2023 results which includes $125 million of share repurchases. Fourth quarter share repurchase activity totaled $15 million and we have now completed approximately $750 million of activity under our $1 billion share repurchase authorization. Entering 2024, we will continue to leverage our flexible cash return framework and look to repurchase shares opportunistically when we believe it will create shareholder value.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the year with approximately $1.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents, of which $102 million is earmarked for the supplemental dividend we announced yesterday that will be paid in February. In December, we repaid our $860 million, 5.2% private note at maturity and also closed on a 5-year $250 million variable rate term loan. This completes a series of transactions over the course of the year, along with our $750 million bond issuance in May to refinance approximately $1 billion of debt. We ended the year with gross debt of $5.1 billion, consistent with our total as of the prior year-end and we have no further debt maturities until 2025. Fourth quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on Page 16.
Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by $8 million compared to the third quarter. This increase was primarily attributable to changes in intersegment profit elimination and LIFO. Key outlook items for the first quarter and full year 2024 are presented on Pages 24 and 25. In our Timberlands business, we expect first quarter earnings before special items and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the fourth quarter of 2023. Turning to our Western Timberlands operations, we expect steady log demand in the domestic market in the first quarter as mills respond to seasonally lower log supply and the prospect of improving lumber takeaway ahead of the spring building season. Given this dynamic, we expect higher domestic sales volumes compared to the fourth quarter.
That said, we anticipate a slight decrease in our overall and our average domestic sales realizations largely driven by a lower mix of grade logs. Absent weather-related disruptions, we expect our fee harvest volumes to be moderately higher in the first quarter. Per unit log and haul costs are expected to be significantly lower as we make the seasonal transition to lower elevation and lower-cost harvest operations. And forestry and road costs are expected to be moderately lower due to the seasonal nature of these activities. Moving to the export markets, starting with Japan. As Devin mentioned, we expect to deliver higher sales volumes into the Japanese market in the first quarter. This is largely in response to measures taken by one of our customers to increase production following a fire at their sawmill in the third quarter of last year.
With a more balanced Japanese log market and improving conditions in the Western domestic market, we anticipate slightly higher average sales realizations for our export logs into Japan in the first quarter. In China, log demand is expected to moderate in the first quarter in response to reduced consumption during the Lunar New Year holiday. Given this dynamic, coupled with improving Western domestic market conditions, we expect to significantly decrease our sales volumes into China during the quarter. Our average sales realizations are expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter. Turning to the South. Despite ample log inventories, Southern log markets are expected to be fairly stable in the first quarter as mills respond to a seasonal reduction in log supply and the prospect of increased demand for finished goods.
As a result, we expect our average sales realizations to be comparable to the fourth quarter. Our fee harvest volumes and forestry and road costs are expected to be moderately lower due to wet weather conditions that are typical in the first quarter and we anticipate comparable per unit log and haul costs. In the North, our fee harvest volumes are expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter and we anticipate moderately higher sales realizations due to mix. Turning to our full year harvest plan. For 2024, we expect total company fee harvest volumes to increase to approximately 35.5 million tons, with all regions delivering slightly higher volumes compared to 2023 levels. Moving to our Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment. We anticipate steady demand for our real estate properties in 2024 and continue to expect a consistent flow of transactions with significant premiums to timber value.
In our Natural Climate Solutions business, we anticipate a significant increase in EBITDA in 2024 as we continue to advance toward our $100 million target. For the segment, we expect full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $320 million. Basis as a percentage of real estate sales is expected to be approximately 35% to 45% for the year. First quarter earnings are expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter of 2023, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $15 million higher primarily due to the timing and mix of real estate sales. Turning to our Wood Products segment. Benchmark prices for lumber and OSB have increased from lower levels in the fourth quarter but have remained fairly stable over the last several weeks. As the quarter progresses, we expect improving market conditions and demand for both products heading into the spring building season.
Excluding the effects of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB, we expect first quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings before special items to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. For our lumber business, we expect higher production and sales volumes in the first quarter and moderately lower unit manufacturing costs as operating conditions improve. Log costs are expected to be slightly lower, primarily in Canada. For our oriented strand board business, we anticipate sales volumes to be moderately higher compared to the fourth quarter with slightly lower unit manufacturing costs. Fiber costs are expected to be slightly higher in the first quarter. As shown on Page 26, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for lumber and OSB are slightly higher than the fourth quarter averages.
Turning to our Engineered Wood Products business. We expect improving demand heading into the spring building season. As a result, we anticipate moderately higher sales volumes in the first quarter, primarily for solid section products. Our average sales realizations are expected to be slightly lower for most products as previously determined price adjustments take effect in certain markets. Raw material costs are expected to be slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter. For our distribution business, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be higher compared to the fourth quarter, primarily driven by an increase in commodity realizations and higher sales volumes. I'll wrap up with some additional full year outlook items highlighted on Page 25. Our full year 2023 interest expense was $280 million.
For full year 2024, we expect interest expense will be approximately $275 million. Turning to taxes, our full year 2023 effective tax rate was approximately 12%, excluding special items. For first quarter and full year 2024, we expect our effective tax rate will be between 13% and 16% before special items based on the forecasted mix of earnings between our REIT and taxable REIT subsidiary. For cash taxes, we paid $63 million for full year 2023 which was lower than our tax expense, excluding special items due to the timing of U.S. and Canadian tax payments. We expect our 2024 cash taxes will be comparable to our overall tax expense. For pension and post-employment plans, our noncash, non-operating pension and post-employment expense was $45 million in 2023.
For 2024, we expect this expense will be comparable to 2023. Cash paid for pension and post-employment plans in 2023 was $20 million. In 2024, we do not anticipate any cash contributions to our U.S. qualified pension plan and our required cash payments for all other plans will be approximately $20 million. Turning now to capital expenditures. Our full year 2023 capital investments totaled $440 million plus $7 million of capitalized interest. We expect total capital for 2024 will be comparable at approximately $440 million which includes: $115 million for Timberlands, inclusive of reforestation costs; $310 million for Wood Products; and $15 million for planned corporate IT system investments. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.
Devin Stockfish: Thanks, Davie. Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets and touch briefly on our multiyear targets. Starting with housing. Despite elevated mortgage interest rates for most of the year, the housing market remained resilient in 2023, particularly in the single-family segment. This was supported by a limited inventory of existing homes on the market, combined with the homebuilder's ability to offer mortgage rate buydowns and other incentives and underpinned by a strong overall demand for housing. Given the tailwinds from last year, along with improving mortgage rates and a more favorable macro environment, our outlook for single-family housing demand in 2024 is more optimistic relative to this time last year.
And that aligns with what we are hearing from our homebuilder customers. We are, however, somewhat less optimistic about the multifamily segment in the near term, largely driven by the recent and upcoming influx of multifamily units entering the market. As a reminder, single-family construction is a much more important demand driver for our business than multifamily. All in all, we're more positive on the housing setup for 2024 and believe we should see an uptick in demand for our products. And our longer-term view on housing fundamentals continues to be very favorable, supported by strong demographic trends and a vastly underbuilt housing stock. Turning to repair and remodel. Activity in the fourth quarter remained steady and barring significant weather disruptions, we expect a similar level of repair and remodel demand in the first quarter.
As for 2024, we believe the underlying demand fundamentals are incrementally more positive compared to last year, supported by otherwise prospective homebuyers choosing to remodel in lieu of purchasing a new home and a higher mortgage rate environment, combined with a healthier economy. And based on recent trends, we think activity will be more heavily weighted toward the Pro segment versus DIY. Looking beyond 2024, most of the key drivers supporting healthy repair and remodel demand remain intact, including favorable home equity levels and an aging housing stock. Finally, I'd like to provide an update on the progress we've made against the multiyear targets we announced during our Investor Day in September of 2021. As highlighted on Slide 21, we've made notable advancements on all fronts.
Starting with our portfolio, we've more than -- we're more than halfway to our $1 billion Timberlands growth target and we've increased Natural Climate Solutions EBITDA by 114% since the inception of that business. In terms of our operating performance, we've made progress against all of our OpEx priorities and have captured $77 million of margin improvements over the last 2 years. Additionally, through the third quarter of 2023, we delivered peer-leading EBITDA margins across all of our Wood Products businesses and are number one in EBITDA per acre in Western Timberlands. On the ESG front, we're making progress on reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and have committed to net zero emissions by 2040. And finally, we continue to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to disciplined capital allocation by increasing our quarterly dividend by more than 5% annually and returning nearly $4.6 billion of cash to shareholders based on our results from 2021 through 2023.
We're incredibly proud of these accomplishments, all of which have made Weyerhaeuser a stronger and more valuable company. Looking forward, we remain committed to driving continued improvements across each of these areas and are well positioned to achieve our strategic targets by year-end 2025. So in closing, our performance in 2023 reflects solid execution across our businesses. As we enter 2024, we're encouraged by resiliency in the housing market and maintain a favorable long-term outlook for the demand fundamentals that will drive growth for our businesses. Our balance sheet is exceptionally strong and we remain focused on serving our customers and driving long-term value for shareholders through our unrivaled portfolio, industry-leading performance, strong ESG foundation and disciplined capital allocation.
So with that, I think we can open it up for questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.
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