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What's in the Cards for Ameriprise (AMP) in Q1 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2019 results on Apr 24, after the market closes. Its earnings and revenues for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline year over year.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from stable revenues and a decline in expenses. However, fall in assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) was on the negative side.

The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 4%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
 

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote

However, activities of Ameriprise during the first quarter did not encourage analysts to revise earnings estimates upward. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of $3.61 for the to-be-reported quarter has remained unchanged over the past seven days. Moreover, the figure represents a decline of 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $3.04 billion, which reflects a decrease of nearly 4% from the year-ago quarter figure.

Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the first quarter, let’s check the factors that are likely to influence results.

Factors to Influence Q1 Results

Ameriprise has been witnessing net outflows in the Asset Management segment over the past few years, which negatively impacted AUM and AUA to some extent. Moreover, while the Advice & Wealth Management segment is likely to record growth in assets during the first quarter based on expectations of improved advisor productivity, continued outflows in the Asset Management segment will likely hurt total AUM.

Thus, the company’s management, financial advice and service fee is likely to decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pinned at $1.62 billion, reflecting a fall of 2.8% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for distribution fees for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $428 million, which reflects a decline of 8.5% year over year.

The consensus estimate for other revenues shows that this component is also expected to decrease during the first quarter. Its Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $282 million, which represents a decline of 8.4% from the year-earlier figure.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is $367 million, which represents a decline of 7.3% from the year-ago quarter. However, the consensus estimate for premiums is pegged at $365 million, representing nearly 6.4% increase from the year-ago quarter.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Ameriprise will be able to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the first quarter. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. While this increases the predictive power of ESP, we also need a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings beat.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some finance stocks that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter, per our model.

BankUnited, Inc. BKU has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release results on Apr 24.

Associated Banc-Corp ASB is expected to release results on Apr 25. It presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.55% and a Zacks Rank #3.

SVB Financial Group SIVB is slated to release results on Apr 25. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.42% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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