What's in the Offing for Valero's (VLO) Earnings in Q3?

Valero Energy Corporation VLO is set to report third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 26, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings of $5.40 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.08 per share, owing to increased renewable diesel sales volumes and a decline in total costs of sales. The positives were partially offset by a lower refining margin per barrel of throughput.

Valero’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, the average surprise being 8.9%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Valero Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Valero Energy Corporation Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Valero’s third-quarter earnings per share of $7.36 has witnessed two upward movements and four downward revisions over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a 5.3% increase from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues of $39 billion indicates a 12.4% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

Valero is one of the leading refining players in the United States. VLO’s diverse refining assets are centered around the prolific Gulf Coast area, which is highly profitable for the company. However, declining throughput volumes are likely to have hurt VLO’s bottom line in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Valero’s total throughput volumes in the third quarter is pegged at 2,978 thousand barrels per day, suggesting a decline from 3,005 thousand barrels per day in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for total throughput volumes is pegged at 2,987 thousand barrels per day, also indicating a year-over-year decline.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Valero’s operating income from the refining segment is pegged at $3,380 million, suggesting a massive decline from the $3,810 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $3,360.2 million, also reflecting a year-over-year decline.

These factors are likely to have affected Valero’s performance in the third quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for Valero this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Valero’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pegged at earnings of $7.36 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Viper Energy Partners LP VNOM currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.11% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The partnership is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VNOM’s earnings is pegged at 40 cents per share, suggesting a decline from the year-ago figure.

Antero Resources Corporation AR has an Earnings ESP of +1,219.97% and is currently a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 25.

Antero Midstream Corporation AM has an Earnings ESP of +8.17% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player at present.

Antero Midstream is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AM’s earnings is pegged at 21 cents per share, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of 5%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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