Why Is Acadia (ACAD) Down 23.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Shares have lost about 23.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Acadia Q4 Earnings Miss, Sales Beat Estimates
Acadiareported fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of 28 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 32 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred a loss of 26 cents per share.
The bottom line improved year over year owing to higher product sales.
The company recorded total revenues of $231 million in the fourth quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $223 million. Acadia’s net product revenues comprise revenues generated from the sale of its two marketed products, Nuplazid (pimavanserin) and the newly launched Daybue.
Total revenues increased 69% year over year, primarily driven by the strong launch of Daybue and the continued uptake of Nuplazid.
Quarter in Detail
In the reported quarter, revenues from Nuplazid increased 5% year over year to $143.9 million, driven by higher new patient starts. Nuplazid sales in the reported quarter beat our model estimate of $133.5 million.
Daybue recorded net product sales of $87.1 million in its second full quarter since launch. Sales of the drug increased 30.2% on a sequential basis and beat our model estimate of $80.1 million.
Research and development (R&D) expenses in the quarter were $66.7 million, down 11.9% year over year. The decrease in R&D cost was due to the Daybue commercial supply build that was expensed prior to its approval.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $111.5 million, up 6.8% year over year. The increase in such expenses can be attributed to a rise in commercial costs associated with the Daybue launch.
Acadia had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $438.9 million as of Dec 31, 2023, compared with $345.9 million as of Sep 30, 2023.
Full-Year Results
In 2023, Acadia generated revenues of $726.4 million, which increased 40.4% year over year.
In the same period, the company recorded a loss of 37 cents per share compared with a loss of $1.34 in 2022.
2024 Guidance
Acadia expects Daybue sales in the range of $370-$420 million in 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, net sales of Daybue are expected to be in the band of $76-$82 million.
Acadia’s shares were down, probably because investors were not too impressed with the sales outlook for Daybue.
The company expects Nuplazid revenues in the $560-$590 million range.
Moreover, the company expects its full-year R&D expenses in the band of $305-$325 million, while SG&A expense is anticipated in the range of $455-$480 million on account of higher commercialization costs associated with the Daybue launch.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -18.41% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Acadia has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
