Why Is Amgen (AMGN) Down 4.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amgen (AMGN). Shares have lost about 4.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amgen due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Q4 Earnings & Sales Top
Amgen reported fourth-quarter 2022 earnings of $4.09 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.04. Earnings declined 7% year over year due to a lower operating margin.
Total revenues of $6.84 billion also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.74 billion as well as our estimate of $6.66 billion. Total revenues were flat year over year as higher product sales were offset by lower Other revenues.
Total product revenues increased 4% from the year-ago quarter to $6.55 billion (U.S.: $4.79 billion; ex-U.S.: $1.78 billion). Higher volumes were offset by lower selling prices of several drugs and currency headwinds. Volumes rose 10% in the quarter, offset by a 3% lower net selling price. Foreign exchange movement hurt sales by 2% in the quarter.
Excluding Fx impact, revenues rose 2% in the quarter.
Other revenues were $287 million in the quarter, down 50% year over year due to lower revenues from its COVID-19 manufacturing collaboration with Eli Lilly.
Amgen witnessed double-digit volume growth for a number of its key products like Repatha, Prolia and Evenity in the fourth quarter and in the full year. However, pricing pressure and increased competition continued to hurt sales of some drugs as well as biosimilar products.
Performance of Key Drugs
General Medicine
Prolia revenues came in at $992 million, up 14% from the year-ago quarter, driven by volume growth. Prolia sales beat our estimates of $941.2 million.
Evenity recorded sales of $225.0 million in the quarter, up 57% year over year, driven by strong volume growth both in and outside the United States.
Repatha generated revenues of $333.0 million, up 22% year over year, as higher volume was partially offset by lower prices. Increased rebates to support broad Medicare Part D and commercial patient access in the United States and the inclusion of Repatha on China’s National Reimbursement Drug List resulted in lower prices in the quarter. Repatha sales were almost in line with our estimates of $333.4 million.
In 2023, Amgen expects less year-over-year U.S. price erosion for Repatha than in 2022.
Aimovig recorded sales of $114 million in the quarter, up 27% year over year due to higher net selling price, which offset a decline in volume.
Amgen expects Aimovig’s selling price to decline going forward to maintain broad patient access amid rising competition.
Hematology-Oncology
Xgeva delivered revenues of $484 million, down 11% from the year-ago quarter due to lower volumes and unfavorable changes to estimated sales deductions. Xgeva sales missed our estimates of $518.1 million. Increased competitive pressure is hurting Xgeva’s sales, a trend expected to continue in 2023.
Kyprolis recorded sales of $325 million, up 14% year over year, driven by volume growth.
Vectibix revenues came in at $238 million, down 2% year over due to currency headwinds.
Nplate sales rose 66% to $469 million due to a one-time order from the U.S. government. Blincyto sales increased 24% from the year-ago period to $164 million.
Amgen’s newly approved drug, Lumakras/ Lumykras recorded sales of $71 million in the quarter compared with $75 million in the previous quarter. Lumakras sales declined sequentially due to lower net selling price and unfavorable changes to estimated sales deductions. Lumakras sales were hurt by a one-time $12 million adjustment from a reimbursement approval decision in France. Lumakras/ Lumykras volumes rose 12% in the quarter. Lumakras/Lumykras sales missed our estimates of $85.6 million.
Sales of Amgen’s oncology biosimilars declined 40% year over year in the fourth quarter.
In oncology biosimilars, sales of Kanjinti were $63 million, down 55% year over year due to lower pricing as a result of increased competition and unfavorable changes to estimated sales deductions.
Sales of Mvasi were $205 million in the quarter, down 33% year over year due to declines in net selling price.
Sales of Kanjinti and Mvasi are expected to continue to decline due to lower prices and volume declines driven by increased competition. However, biosimilar revenues are expected to return to growth with the launch of Amjevita (Humira biosimilar) in 2023 and the next wave of launches of biosimilar versions of Stelara, Eylea and Soliris.
Inflammation
Sales of Otezla were $616 million in the quarter, down 2%, due to lower pricing and unfavorable changes to estimated sales deductions. Otezla volumes rose 7% in the quarter benefiting from the label expansion in mild-to-moderate psoriasis. Otezla sales in the United States were hurt by increased competitive pressure with the impact expected to continue in the first quarter of 2023. Otezla sales missed our estimates of $640.2 million.
Newly approved asthma drug, Tezspire (tezepelumab) recorded sales of $79 million in the quarter compared with $55 million in the previous quarter as the new drug is being utilized by patients across all types of severe asthma. Amgen expects to launch a prefilled pen version of Tezspire in the first quarter in the United States.
Amgevita sales were $119 million in the quarter, up 3% year over year, driven by volume growth, which was partially offset by currency headwinds and lower net selling price due to increased competitive pressure
Enbrel revenues of $1.08 billion declined 1% year over year due to lower volumes and price, which were partially offset by higher year-end inventory levels. Enbrel sales slightly missed our estimates of $1.11 billion. Amgen expects further declines in Enbrel’s net selling prices, going forward, due to increased competition.
The 2022 acquisition of ChemoCentryx added a newly launched innovative product, Tavneos to Amgen’s portfolio. Tavneos is approved for the treatment of patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis, a serious systemic autoimmune disease. Tavneos generated $21 million in sales in the fourth quarter.
Operating Margins Rise
The adjusted operating margin declined 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% in the quarter. Adjusted operating expenses were flat at $3.83 billion as higher SG&A costs were offset by lower R&D costs.
SG&A spending rose 2% to $1.47 billion. R&D expenses declined 2% year over year to $1.29 billion due to higher business development activity in the year-ago quarter, partially offset by higher spending behind pipeline candidates.
Adjusted tax rate was 13.4% for the quarter, a 2.8-point increase from the year-ago quarter.
Amgen did not re-purchase any shares in the fourth quarter. In 2022, Amgen re-purchased 26.1 million shares of common stock.
2022 Results
Full-year 2022 sales rose 1% to $26.32 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $26.23 billion. Sales were within the guided range of $26.0 billion to $26.3 billion
Adjusted earnings for 2022 were $17.69 per share, up 27% year over year. Earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.62 per share and were within the guided range of $17.25 to $17.85 per share.
2023 Guidance
Amgen gave its financial guidance for 2023 that excluded any contribution from the pending acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics.
Revenues are expected in the range of 26.0 billion to $27.2 billion, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $28.46 billion.
In 2023, Amgen expects strong sales growth of products like Tezspire, Evenity, Repatha, Prolia and Tavneos to be offset by lower revenues from Nplate, oncology biosimilars and legacy established products such as Enbrel and the absence of COVID-19 antibody revenues. It expects a mid-single-digit price decline in 2023.
In 2023, Amgen expects Neulasta sales to be less than $700 million. The combined sales of Kanjinti and Mvasi are expected to be less than $750 million. Product sales of Epogen are expected be to less than $300 million as the company transitions through the expiry of its contract with DaVita.
Amgen expects Other Revenues to be between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion.
Earnings are expected in the range of $17.40 to $18.60 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $18.43 per share.
Adjusted cost of sales as a percent of product sales is expected to be 16% to 17% in 2023. The change in tax laws in Puerto Rico will result in lowering of Amgen’s cost of goods sold but will increase its income tax going forward.
Adjusted R&D costs are expected to increase 3% to 4% year over year from the 2022 level. S&A spending, as a percentage of product sales, is expected to decrease slightly year over year, driven by productivity improvements. Total operating expenses are expected to be flat versus the 2022 level despite declining net selling prices and inflationary pressures on costs. Amgen expects the operating margin as a percentage of product sales to be roughly 50% in 2023. Adjusted other income and expense is expected to be approximately $1.4 billion.
The adjusted tax rate is expected to be in the range of 18.0%-19.0%, while capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $925 million. The company expects to buy back shares worth not more than $500 million in 2023.
First-Quarter 2023 Guidance
The first quarter is expected to be the lowest revenue quarter of the year. Revenues are expected to be slightly below that in the first quarter of 2022. Product sales are expected to be flat from the prior-year levels while other revenues are expected to be lower on a year-over-year basis
Sales of Otezla and Enbrel are expected to be lower in the first quarter per historical trends due to the impact of benefit plan changes, insurance reverification and increased co-pay expenses as U.S. patients work through deductibles.
Due to this effect, Amgen believes first-quarter 2023 Otezla sales could be in line with or below first- quarter 2022 sales.
Adjusted operating margin is expected to be below 50%, as a percentage of product sales, in the first quarter.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -12.34% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Amgen has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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