Why Is Carlyle (CG) Up 18% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Carlyle Group (CG). Shares have added about 18% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carlyle due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Carlyle’s Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, AUM Decreases
Carlyle reported post-tax distributable earnings per share of 87 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. However, the bottom line declined from $1.42 in the year-ago quarter.
An increase in fee revenues and reduced expenses supported its results. However, a decrease in realized performance revenues and the AUM balance were major headwinds.
Net income attributable to Carlyle was $81.3 million compared with $280.8 million in the prior-year quarter.
Revenues & Expenses Fall
Segmental revenues were $776.6 million in the quarter under review, plunging 44.6% from a year ago. Also, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $825.5 million.
Total segment fee revenues fell 3% year over year to $552.7 million. A decline in net transaction and portfolio advisory fees resulted in the fall.
Realized performance revenues plunged 76.4% to $180.4 million.
Total segmental expenses amounted to $409.2 million, down 46% year over year. The decline primarily resulted from decreased compensation and benefits expenses.
Total AUM Down
As of Sep 30, 2023, total AUM was $382.2 billion, down marginally from the prior quarter.
Fee-earning AUM for the reported quarter was $273 billion, up 1% on a sequential basis.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Carlyle has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, Carlyle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
