Why Is Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Down 11.8% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cheesecake Factory (CAKE). Shares have lost about 11.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cheesecake Factory due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Cheesecake Factory’s Q2 Earnings Top, Revenues Lag
The Cheesecake Factory reported second-quarter fiscal 2023 (ended Jul 4) results, wherein earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues missed the same.
The bottom and the top lines increased year over year. An increase in comparable restaurant sales backed by the improving consumer demand and new restaurant openings drove the company’s performance.
However, the company is facing restaurant opening delays due to construction challenges and permit approval delays, which is likely to increase its expenses. Also, ongoing macroeconomic challenges add to the headwinds.
Earnings & Revenues Discussion
In the quarter under review, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of 88 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 81 cents by 8.6%. The reported figure represented a 69.2% year-over-year increase.
Total revenues of $866.2 million missed the consensus estimate of $881 million by 1.7%. However, the top line increased 4% on a year-over-year basis.
In the reported quarter, comps at Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 1.5% year over year, compared with a rise of 4.7% in the prior-year quarter. Comps grew 14.1% from the 2019 level. Our model predicted comps at Cheesecake Factory restaurants for the quarter to increase 3.4% year over year.
Costs in Detail
The cost of food and beverage, as a percentage of revenues, decreased 130 basis points (bps) year over year to 23.2% in the fiscal second quarter. Our model predicted the metric to be 23.3% of revenues in the reporting quarter.
Labor expenses, as a percentage of total revenues, amounted to 35.3%, down 130 bps from the year-ago quarter’s levels. We expected the metric be 36.1% of revenues in the quarter.
Other operating costs, as a percentage of total revenues, were 26.2%, down 10 bps from the prior-year quarter’s level. In the quarter, we anticipated the metric to be 25.3% of revenues.
General and administrative expenses, accounted for 6.4% of revenues, up 40 bps year over year. Our model predicted the metric to be 6.2% of revenues in the fiscal second quarter.
In the fiscal second quarter, pre-opening expenses accounted for 0.7% of revenues, up 30 bps year over year.
Balance Sheet
As of Jul 4, Cheesecake Factory’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $91.6 million, compared with $115 million at the fiscal 2022 end. Long-term debt (net of issuance costs) was $475 million, on par with the fiscal 2022-end value. As of Jul 4, the company had total available liquidity of $330.1 million.
Management declared a quarterly cash dividend of 27 cents per share. The dividend will be payable on Aug 29, to shareholders of record as of Aug 16. In the fiscal second quarter, CAKE also repurchased 280,400 shares for $9.3 million.
Store Developments
In the quarter under review, Cheesecake Factory opened three new restaurants. Management expects to open 20 restaurants in fiscal 2023 along with two-three international restaurants under licensing agreements.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -9.13% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Cheesecake Factory has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Cheesecake Factory has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Cheesecake Factory belongs to the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry. Another stock from the same industry, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), has gained 0.2% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2023.
Chipotle reported revenues of $2.51 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.6%. EPS of $12.65 for the same period compares with $9.30 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Chipotle is expected to post earnings of $10.42 per share, indicating a change of +9.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.8% over the last 30 days.
Chipotle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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