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Why Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Is the Cheapest It's Been in Nearly a Year

Ryan McQueeney
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Why Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Is the Cheapest It's Been in Nearly a Year

Investors looking to determine whether Nvidia is "cheap" or "expensive" might be best served by comparing the stock to itself. With that said, a quick glance at Nvidia's historical Forward P/E reveals that the stock is actually trading at its lowest valuation in nearly a year.

It is no secret that Nvidia NVDA is one of Wall Street’s most popular stocks. The graphics chip maker is a dominant force in the global gaming industry, and its tireless investments in self-driving cars, machine learning, and artificial intelligence all but guarantee the company a spot among the tech industry’s leaders for years to come.

Nvidia’s leadership and innovation have also led to a massive surge in the company’s stock. Over the last two years, NVDA has climbed more than 800%, thanks in large part to excitement over the company’s future-focused technology.

But some of that surge has also been caused by rapid earnings and revenue expansion, with the company notching adjusted EPS growth of 61% and sales growth of 41% in its most recent fiscal year.

Nevertheless, Nvidia remains a speculative growth stock with sky-high valuations. NVDA is currently trading with a P/E ratio of 38.2, coming in significantly higher than the broader market average, as well as the 15.8 average displayed by its “Semiconductor – General” industry peers.

To those skeptical of rising valuations in the sector, Nvidia’s high P/E is just another example of the bubble forming around tech stocks right now. Believers in Nvidia’s future, on the other hand, argue that investors simply have to pay a premium for companies with the potential to lead humanity into the next great technological age.

One thing that nearly everyone can agree on is that Nvidia is quite the unique company. Prudent investors are correct to compare the stock to the others around it, but the uniqueness of the situation might also demand special consideration. In other words, investors looking to determine whether Nvidia is “cheap” or “expensive” might be best served by comparing the stock to itself.

With that said, a quick glance at Nvidia’s historical Forward P/E reveals that the stock is actually trading at its lowest valuation in nearly a year:

Nvidia was battered by the late-January sell-off, but shares have recovered quite nicely. That means that the cause of this lower P/E is also an improved analyst outlook and rising earnings estimates.

Within the past 60 days, we have seen 12 revisions with 100% agreement to the upside for Nvidia’s fiscal 2019 earnings estimates. Over this same timeframe, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for that fiscal period, which ends in January 2019, has gained a staggering $1.56.

Nvidia is now expected to witness adjusted full-year earnings of $6.34 per share in fiscal 2019, which would represent growth of nearly 29% on a year-over-year basis.

This strong revision activity has helped NVDA earn a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), giving investors yet another clue that now might just be the perfect time to scoop up some shares.

Want more market analysis from this author? Make sure to follow @Ryan_McQueeney on Twitter!

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