World Fuel Services (NYSE:INT) stock falls 5.2% in past week as five-year earnings and shareholder returns continue downward trend
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in World Fuel Services Corporation (NYSE:INT), since the last five years saw the share price fall 46%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 34% over the last twelve months. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 21% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 17% in the same period.
Since World Fuel Services has shed US$72m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
View our latest analysis for World Fuel Services
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Looking back five years, both World Fuel Services' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 3.5% per year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 11% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into World Fuel Services' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of World Fuel Services's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of World Fuel Services, it has a TSR of -42% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that World Fuel Services shareholders are down 33% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 18%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for World Fuel Services that you should be aware of.
We will like World Fuel Services better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
