Yen to Extend Gains as US Data Underpins QE3 Reduction Bets
The Japanese Yen looks likely to extend as supportive US economic data underpins bets on near-term reduction in Fed stimulus, driving risk aversion.
Talking Points
Yen Soars as Asian Stocks Plummet on QE3 Reduction Bets, China PMI Miss
Eurozone PMIs Boost Euro But Fail to Turn the Tide of Broad Risk Aversion
Improved US Home Sales, Jobless Claims Data May Fuel Risk-Off Momentum
The Japanese Yen soared in overnight trade, adding as much as 2.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as risk aversion gripped Asian stock exchanges and prompted an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index slid 3.6 percent in a move the newswires chalked up to hints of near-term QE3 reduction from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI report. Figures from HSBC suggested factory-sector activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in seven months in the world’s second-largest economy.
Looking ahead, a nominally supportive set of Eurozone PMI figures seems to be doing little to underpin risk appetite in early European trade. The data showed manufacturing- and service-sector activity contracted at a slower pace than economists expected, although the overall trend still firmly points to continued recession in the second quarter. The Euro advanced on the results but S&P 500 index futures continue to trade sharply lower, hinting the dour mood seen in Asia is likely to carry forward as Wall Street comes online. Updated first-quarterUK GDP numbers printed in line with earlier estimates and likewise offer little that can meaningfully derail established momentum.
On balance, this points to continued Yen strength ahead. US New Home Sales and weekly Jobless Claims data are on tap ahead, with improvements expected on both fronts. That is likely to reinforce the idea that the Fed may taper asset purchases over the next several FOMC meetings, which ought to feed into continued risk aversion. For the US Dollar, the most profound response to these developments is likely to be reflected as continued USDJPY weakness.
Asia Session:
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
1:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY) | 2.3% | - | 2.2% |
1:45 | CNY | HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY) | 49.6 | 50.4 | 50.4 |
5:00 | JPY | BOJ Monthly Economic Report (MAY) | - | - | - |
Euro Session:
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
7:00 | EUR | French PMI Services (MAY P) | 44.3 (A) | 44.3 | Low |
7:00 | EUR | French PMI Manufacturing (MAY P) | 45.5 (A) | 44.4 | Low |
7:30 | EUR | German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A) | 49.0 (A) | 48.1 | Medium |
7:30 | EUR | German PMI Services (MAY A) | 49.8 (A) | 49.6 | Medium |
8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY A) | 47.8 (A) | 46.7 | Medium |
8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY A) | 47.5 (A) | 47.0 | Medium |
8:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A) | 47.7 (A) | 46.9 | Medium |
8:30 | GBP | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 0.3% (A) | 0.3% | High |
8:30 | GBP | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) | 0.6% (A) | 0.6% | High |
8:30 | GBP | Private Consumption (1Q P) | 0.1% (A) | 0.4% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Government Spending (1Q P) | 0.0% (A) | 0.6% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P) | -0.8% (A) | -0.2% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Imports (1Q P) | -0.5% (A) | -1.0% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Exports (1Q P) | -0.8% (A) | -1.6% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P) | -0.4% (A) | -0.8% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P) | 0.7% (A) | 0.8% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Index of Services (MoM) (MAR) | 0.2% (A) | 0.9% | Low |
8:30 | GBP | Index of Services (3M/3M) (MAR) | 0.6% (A) | 0.1% | Low |
8:30 | EUR | Spain to Sell 2016, 2018 and 2026 Bonds | - | - | Low |
10:05 | USD | Fed’s Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy | - | - | Low |
Critical Levels:
CCY | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
EURUSD | 1.2795 | 1.2959 |
GBPUSD | 1.4989 | 1.5143 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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