Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights PulteGroup, Toll Brothers, Taylor Morrison Home, Meritage Homes and M.D.C. Holdings
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – August 30, 2023 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses PulteGroup Inc. PHM, Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL, Taylor Morrison Home Corp. TMHC, Meritage Homes Corp. MTH and M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. MDC.
Industry: Homebuilding
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2141804/5-top-ranked-stocks-to-buy-from-the-buoyant-homebuilding-industry
The U.S. housing space continues to grapple with accelerating mortgage rates, rising raw material and labor costs. That said, the rising need for more work-at-home space, lack of existing homes for sale, focus on cost control, increased operating leverage and important buyouts have been boosting the confidence of the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry players. Companies like PulteGroup Inc., Toll Brothers, Inc., Taylor Morrison Home Corp., Meritage Homes Corp. and M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. have been gaining from their fundamental strength and the above-mentioned tailwinds.
Industry Description
The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry comprises manufacturers of residential and commercial buildings. Some industry players are involved in providing financial services that include selling mortgages and collecting fees for title insurance agencies as well as closing services. The industry players are involved in building single-family detached and attached home communities; townhouses, condominiums, duplexes and triplexes; master-planned luxury residential resort-style golf communities; and urban low, mid, and high-rise communities.
The companies are also involved in the purchase, development and sale of residential land. Additionally, the companies build and own multi-family rental properties, residential real estate, and oil and gas assets.
4 Trends Shaping the Homebuilding Industry's Future
Lack of Supply, Suburban Shift: There is a sizable shortage of new homes after more than a decade of under-building compared with population growth. Although demand has slowed recently, supply remains very low. Continued demand for homes despite rising mortgage interest rates amid low supply has been generating profit for homebuilders.
Meanwhile, the changing geography of housing demand has been supporting builder confidence. Demand for new homes is improving in lower-density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek larger homes to work from home amid the pandemic. The desire for more space and amenities to accommodate working and learning from home should continue to boost the U.S. housing market in the near term.
Cost-Control Efforts, Focus on Entry-Level Buyers & Acquisitions: Given the accelerated raw material prices, companies have been relying on effective cost control and focusing on making the homebuilding platform more efficient, which, in turn, is resulting in higher operating leverage. Homebuilders have been controlling construction costs by designing homes efficiently and obtaining construction materials and labor at competitive prices. Some homebuilders also follow a dynamic pricing model, which enables them to set the price according to the latest market conditions.
Again, the majority of companies are focused on the growing demand for entry-level homes and addressing the need for lower-priced homes, given affordability concerns in the U.S. housing market. Meanwhile, industry players have been acquiring other homebuilding companies in desirable markets, resulting in improved volumes, market share, revenues and profitability.
Higher Rates: The home affordability issue remains a headwind owing to accelerating mortgage rates. While remaining committed to combating inflation, the Fed raised interest rates last year at the fastest pace since the 1980s, pushing borrowing costs above 5% from near zero. On Jul 26, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% while leaving its options open on future rate hikes.
The central bank's move pushed its benchmark policy rate, the Fed funds rate, to a new range of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level in the past 22 years. Notably, as part of the Fed's rate hiking drive since the 1980s, the U.S. central bank has lifted the range for its benchmark interest rate by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022. This is less encouraging for this rate-sensitive market, which accounts for almost 3% of the economy.
Tight Labor & Credit Markets: Although there has been a modest improvement in the supply chain and some easing in labor constraints, supply-chain challenges are still expected to continue to impact the level of housing starts and construction cycle times to some extent in the near term. Continuous supply-chain issues in various countries have been impacting builders' ability to deliver on time.
Again, the shortage of skilled construction labor continues to be a pressing concern. With the rising demand for construction, the industry requires more skilled professionals, which is vital to America's economy. Meanwhile, there still exists supply shortages of building materials as well as tightening credit conditions for residential real estate development and construction due to the recent banking crisis and higher interest rates.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright Prospects
The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry is an 18-stock group within the broader Zacks Construction sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #4, which places it in the top 2% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group's Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bright near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry's positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a higher earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gradually gaining confidence in this group's earnings growth potential. Since May 2023, the industry's earnings estimates for 2023 and 2024 have increased 20% and 20.1%, respectively.
Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let's take a look at the industry's recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Outperforms Sector and S&P 500
The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry has outperformed the S&P 500 Index and the broader Zacks Construction sector in the past year.
Over this period, the industry has gained 60% compared with the S&P 500's rise of 10.5%. The broader sector has gained 30.7% over the time frame.
Industry's Current Valuation
On the basis of the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio, which is commonly used for valuing homebuilding stocks, the industry is currently trading at 8.3 compared with the S&P 500's 19.1 and the sector's 14.5.
Over the last five years, the industry has traded as high as 11.6X and as low as 4.2X, with a median of 8.8X.
5 Homebuilding Stocks to Buy Now
We have selected five stocks from the Zacks homebuilding space that currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and are expected to register growth. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Toll Brothers: Based in Horsham, PA, Toll Brothers is a leading builder of luxury homes. The company has been benefiting from its strategy of broadening its product lines, price points and geographies. Also, it has been gaining from the lack of competition in the luxury new home market, its build-to-order approach and solid backlog level. This, combined with its focus on operational efficiency, has been helping TOL to drive growth. Meanwhile, the company has been strategically adding more affordable luxury communities because of the current demographic trends and expanding footprint and customer base. These communities are expected to be more capital efficient.
Toll Brothers stock gained 54.4% so far this year, outperforming the industry's 38.6% rise. Earnings estimates for fiscal 2023 have increased to $11.59 per share from $10.61 over the past seven days. The company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average being 31.4%. Again, it carries an impressive VGM Score of A. This helps to identify stocks with the most attractive value, growth and momentum.
PulteGroup: Based in Atlanta, GA, this homebuilder has been benefiting from a prudent land investment strategy, focus on entry-level buyers and return of more free cash flow to shareholders. PulteGroup's annual land acquisition strategies have been resulting in improved volumes, revenues and profitability for quite some time now. The company has been reaping benefits from the successful execution of strategic initiatives to boost profitability, with a focus on entry-level homes. Its solid operating model, which strategically aligns the production of build-to-order and quick-move-in homes with applicable demand across consumer groups, has been a major tailwind.
PulteGroup stock has jumped 90.4% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2023 and 2024 earnings has been upwardly revised by 12.3% and 9%, respectively, over the past 30 days. Its earnings topped consensus estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 19.5%. Again, it carries an impressive VGM Score of A.
Meritage Homes: Based in Scottsdale, AZ, Meritage Homes is one of the leading designers and builders of single-family homes. Its focus on entry-level LiVE.NOW homes has been a major driving factor. Although the combined effect of greater sales incentives and continued elevated direct costs has been impacting the company's gross margins, MTH is particularly focused on increasing gross margins and maximizing profits on every sale.
To this end, it is making homes out of speculations that promise faster delivery at a lower cost. Meritage Homes' strategic shift to a pure-play entry-level and first-move-up builder is expected to yield higher absorptions, aided by an improving community count growth trajectory.
Meritage Homes' shares gained 65.5% so far this year. MTH has seen an upward estimate revision for 2023 and 2024 earnings by 25.2% and 22.6% over the past 30 days, respectively. The company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average being 24.1%. Again, it carries an impressive VGM Score of B.
M.D.C. Holdings: Headquartered in Denver, CO, this company's homebuilding operations include purchasing finished lots or developing lots for the construction and sale of primarily single-family detached homes to first-time and first-time move-up homebuyers under the Richmond American Homes name. In a bid to stay competitive in the current market condition, MDC is offering great opportunities for build-to-order buyers, such as long-term interest rate lock programs and other special incentives. The company's land acquisition strategies and high liquidity add to its growth.
MDC — a Zacks Rank #1 stock — has jumped 40.4% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2023 and 2024 earnings has been upwardly revised by 33.4% and 30.4%, respectively, over the past 30 days. The company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average surprise being 46%. Again, it carries an impressive VGM Score of A.
Taylor Morrison Home: This Scottsdale, AZ-based homebuilder and land developer is engaged in building single-family detached and attached homes for first-time buyers, move-up families to luxury and active adult customers. The company has been benefiting from critical advantages by achieving greater scale, simplifying its operations and embracing innovation to drive both growth opportunities and enhance bottom-line growth. Focus on the operational efficiencies and solid liquidity level are tailwinds.
TMHC shares gained 72.4% so far this year. TMHC has seen an upward estimate revision for 2023 and 2024 earnings over the past 30 days by 3.4% and 5.7%, respectively. The company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average being 18%. Again, it carries an impressive VGM Score of A.
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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
